Thoughts on the A1Lite and mainstream markets

[CodeSmith]

@Bloodline:

I think it's too early to tell what China really wants.  Just a few months ago they were all about their homegrown Dragon CPU, more recently we've heard Alan's story of how interested in PPC they are and we've also had reports, as you said, of their interest in 64 bit Wintel chips (I've also heard they're looking at Itanic2).  I think they basically want to see how to best grow their IT infrastructure, since they're effectively going from zero, and they don't want to discount anything.  Very smart move, I think.

[GregS]

@Hammer we may have started off at odds, but I think we might be going in the same direction after-all.

Catching-up is a very powerful force, and yes open source for a number of reasons (free labour and localization/adaption being prime) is a much better option if you are in the position of say China.

A whole set of different dynamics begins. I do not think that Opensource is any sort of long term solution, but it is the right solution for places like China in the immediate future.

I would also say that I undrstand why China is leaning so heavily to PPC. If Intel gained a foothold, the piracy of MS would force it to become its prisoner. The Chinese leadership may be accused of many things, but stupidity is not one of them.

Besides which the cost factor is enormous, hot X86 chips in server farms means that the airconditioning costs alone far outwiegh the cost benefits on the chips themselves. Besides which the G3 is an ideal CPU for using in a wide number of settings and the bonus that a server farm of these could be maintained easily with a domestic air-conditioner stuck in a window.

In fact multi-processing with G3 must have a lot of attractions once this aspect gets nailed down.

Things like .NET are most unattractive to nations building up the infrastructure in communications - for the medium term anything like this in no future at all.

Hammer, I think in all this the Amiga is sitting pretty, it may not be a "cert" but it is fair bet. Linux is not I think what you would really want in say China when the bus ticket sales become computerisied, or the train signals etc. then you want some small and relaiable, easy to understand  OS by an IT section that learnt most of its skills on-the-job.

The time scale I would use is that the signs of major change will be seen within 5 years and within 10 years the foundations for the next wave will be laid - the only thing I find unimaginable is that MS will be anything other than a footnote in the history of computing.

And let us not forget the rest of Asia, EurAsia and India much the same pressures that China is under hold for them as well.

[GregS]

If that's true why have they just spent the last few months wooing AMD and the Athlon64?

@bloodline

I am sure they are wooing every CPU manufacturer in the world, but as far as I can see it will be an arranged marriage. China will go for a stable of CPUs but what they require above all that in that stable there is a good hack which runs cool and is up to doing everything and is very very potentially cheap - the G3 fits the bill while G4-G5 fits the rest quiet nicely.

If you are going to have any leverage then you need to play all your cards.

[Hammer]

Besides which the cost factor is enormous, hot X86 chips in server farms means that the airconditioning costs alone far outwiegh the cost benefits on the chips themselves.(SNIP)

Tell that to IBM’s Power4. As for "thin and light" X86 refer to Pentium M blades....

[GregS]

Tell that to IBM’s Power4. As for "thin and light" X86 refer to Pentium M blades....

@Hammer.

I don't know how to make this any clearer - China will not be going down any path that even gets them close to useing MS - they are not mad. If its X86 then it doesn't matter if it runs ice-cold and is fast as light - the Chinese will not have a bar of it.

Reduce the CPUs by this factor and then they either go for one of their own (I don't think this will be the case) or what?

But if your content to play selective quotes then go for it - say I contradict myself by also argueing that even though a X86 may be cooler it still is not in the running.

The Chinese have made it pretty clear that they do not want, nor can they afford, to go into MSes pocket. Using any form of X86, in short anything compatible to MS would in effect give their technological policies over to Billy Gates - and they ain't going to do it.

[bloodline]

The Chinese have made it pretty clear that they do not want, nor can they afford, to go into MSes pocket. Using any form of X86, in short anything compatible to MS would in effect give their technological policies over to Billy Gates - and they ain't going to do it.
 

You really think they care that much? The computer world is driven by one concept; Cheap and powerfull... that is all.

Why the hell did you buy an Amiga in the first place? I'm sure it wasn't the promise of being a computer outcast in ten years? No it was because it was the most powerful thing you could get for the price (that's why I bought one anyway).

If China did "go their own way", then MIPS would be by far the best option. I believe their Dragon is a MIPS based design.

[coldfish]

On the issue of  Windows' and the x86 ISA's future?

 Well, looking at M$'s intentions to use IBM processor tech in Xbox2,  perhaps M$ will use Xbox2 to leverage a position in the PPC market?  More likely though, is that PPC fits better into console architecture.

In the near future, I wouldn't be too surprised if the home PC as we currently know it doesnt exist. Replaced by simpler "black box" hybrid console systems.  
Given the choice, the average person would opt for a very low cost game/communications/entertainment hub that just works, over current, more tempramental hardware solutions.

Just ask Sony and M$, they're both onto the idea...

[GregS]

You really think they care that much? The computer world is driven by one concept; Cheap and powerfull... that is all.

@bloodline

Actually I think they care a great deal indeed, their future depends on making the right choice and as I keep saying their political leadership may be accused of a lot of things but not stupidity. They know they are standing on the breach of truely major change and they do not want to stuff things up.

They will steer a middle course, settle on a technology which is connected to the rest of world but does not make them subject to the whims of others. Dragon was something they did precisely to show their independence and it will be kept in reserve.

Their problems are not the same as the "wests" they need something which can operate reliably in a small village with a generator as well as something powerful enough to be used as server farm. They will avoid the top-end of advanced design and go for something which is already in ordinary use and it will not be X86.

They are not just looking for a good chip design, but as I said before a stable of chips which already have the manufacturing capacity to feed their market while not dominating other aspects of use.

They will be going Linux, especially if the Japanese have anything to do with it and Koreans and Twainese are likewise minded. They also see this is a contest with the US and MS as part of that. While they are looking at building a very Asian basis for future technology growth.

You have to take everything into account, and when you do things narrow down a hell of a lot.


By the way, I bought my first Amiga because of the AREXX ports and the multi-tasking the A500 looked like a processing whimp compared to the mighty early Mac it stood next to, then A3000 when it was new and the new MacII still did a little better in processing speed - I sold the MacII , I did not sell the A3000 - when it broke I went to a PC to bide my time (my new A1 G4 arrives this week).

[DonnyEMU]

The new Amiga has to do three things to have a market for itself..

1) Attract New Users
2) Offer Applications on par with industry standard ones
3) Offer unique capabilities

Debating the OS or what processor instruction set is present and if Bill Gates is involved or not really misses the point.. China is a technology leader in the world market. If they can do their own manned spacecraft they can certainly do their own computing architecture, in both software and hardware. I expect China to "go their own way" as they continue to do in everything else.

I bought my Amiga not because of "power without the price" (that's an atari concept). I bought it for it's animation, desktop video, and unique applications. So far I can't always see those things in the new Amiga, just a familiar OS. Time will tell though..

-Don

PS to all the Windows haters out there.. Windows has done one thing really smart with the move to .net, they can support different target processors (thanks to the Common Language Runtime) and Direct X is such a complete solution for media. If multimedia gets more integrated with the Windows UI such as it is with longhorn (see lapping along longhorn video then the Amiga has a chance of keeping up.. You should watch the video and tell me if the Amiga can do this..

[GregS]

Debating the OS or what processor instruction set is present and if Bill Gates is involved or not really misses the point.

@DonnyEMU good points and I will cease and desist.

I do think the new Amiga will have little difficulty in attracting new users (not a deluge but a steady stream),  Real3D and Pagestream are a really good start on the applications front, but only a start.

It may be a little while before unique capabilities are developed - but I can say without hestitation that developers will love the "write crash log" of the "Grim Reaper" it will save a huge amount in support and debugging (just do it again and this time write the "crash log" and email it).

My hope is in XML developments because some sort of parser is already apart of the OS - I think a new breed of integrated word processors is not too far away, XML signatures and file keeping and a whole lot of other housekeeping potential is possible just because of this one thing (not that XML is new but integrated directly into the OS is).

[DonnyEMU]

In the next Windows there is a new Windows GUI (presentation) system language called XAML Application Markup Language).. The code for creating a windows interface is now XML based..

Here's some example code taken from  a MSDN article  MSDN XAML article


  xmlns="http://schemas.microsoft.com/2003/xaml"
  xmlns:def="Definition"
  def:Class="Application3.Window1"
  Text="My Three Rectangles">
 
   
     
   
   
   
   
   

 


 and the app it produces..



I think XML offers us all great opportunities for the future. I want to see this type of thing not just in windows but other OSes (Amiga, BeOS, SkyOS, etc. even linux kiddos)..

XAML is a great idea..

[GregS]

@DonnyEMU, yes this is the stuff that excites me (XAML or XUL) along with all the rest of XML.

I would love to talk about the effects this has on application development especially the fragmentation of applications and mega-applications. Of course it needs a good simple script language to hold it all together (I see SHEEP as a natural successor to AREXX, but AREXX could do the trick).

One of the things which most excites me is an end to off-theshelf-one-size-fits-all applications and the fashioning of task orientated interfaces designed by "advanced" users.

The relationship between the GUI, GUI manager, GUI description, Scripting Glue and compiled code is a very exciting one - let alone that the data itself can be marked-up in the same language (cross purpose editors are something even mor exciting).

I was suggesting such a thing to Amiga Inc sometime ago, but it is still early days. I am a great believer in in generalisied code fragments organisied through a seperate GUI interface as a way of remodeling the relationship between developer and end-user.

.NET solutions have hit on what needs to be done, except without the "net" part - but then old Billy wants his control and thats the hidden anchor in this. But I agree wholeheartedly this is definitely the way to go.

[Prmetime]

Getting back to the original question of this thread, yes I do think the A1 lite will be commercially viable.  At the moment, the A1 Lite will have most, if not all, of the capabilities of the A1.  Frankly I would rather have an A1 Lite because it is so much smaller.  Not only does it seem to fit in the historical line up like an A500/600/1200, but it is still processor upgradable.  The only disadvantage from my point of view is that you can't upgrade the graphics chip.  Still, even a PPC G3/Radeon 7000 based unit is so far ahead of the hardware that I have in my current A3000 Amigas, that I get a smaller and more powerful box that should have far more capability than an Amiga I have ever owned.

     On top of that, it is a very viable set up for anyone wanting to do a kiosk type setup.  It should also be very stable and inexpensive to run in the long term.  So yes, I think the A1 Lite is a viable machine for the market.  

[Treke]

@GregS, DonnyEMU:

Comparing the AmigaOS to Longhorn and its API to .NET ( and especially Avalon - the next one, which can do much more than DonnyEMU pointed out ) isn't really fair  :-)
When I saw Longhorn Alpha and the next WinFX technologies in action, it was slugish, buggy, but very nice to develop on (.NET framework 2.0 - Whidbey, etc).

re

Treke
But from the users point of view there is little what you can feel from 1st touch: The UI of Longhorn is rewritten using DirectX (i.e vector graphics, quite impressive), that's all.

[dammy]

by Prmetime on 2003/11/17 9:14:10

Getting back to the original question of this thread, yes I do think the A1 lite will be commercially viable.

Unless they can make it cost competive  with the other mini-itx mobos, it's DOA.  OS4's market is way too tiny to support it and A1.  Yes, it could be sold to Linux/BSD guys, but those folks will go the cheapest route.

On top of that, it is a very viable set up for anyone wanting to do a kiosk type setup. It should also be very stable and inexpensive to run in the long term. So yes, I think the A1 Lite is a viable machine for the market.

Cutting OS4's cost out of the mini-A1, for Kiosk, does it still be competitive with VIA's
MiniITX? I don't think so with the latter running all sorts of *nix and AROS.

Dammy

[Hammer]

 don't know how to make this any clearer - China will not be going down any path that even gets them close to useing MS - they are not mad. If its X86 then it doesn't matter if it runs ice-cold and is fast as light - the Chinese will not have a bar of it.

Their action speaks for themselves in that regard e.g. AMD64 and MIPS and ‘etc’. I’m sure the Chinese can separate the HW and OS after all the Linux’s home HW is the X86.

It’s a matter of economics i.e. MS’s stuff is expensive but the hardware is not.  

Reduce the CPUs by this factor and then they either go for one of their own (I don't think this will be the case) or what?

Again, why did they invested on AMD64 based supercomputer?

But if your content to play selective quotes then go for it - say I contradict myself by also argueing that even though a X86 may be cooler it still is not in the running.

Refer to the statistics and trends.  

The Chinese have made it pretty clear that they do not want, nor can they afford, to go into MSes pocket. Using any form of X86, in short anything compatible to MS would in effect give their technological policies over to Billy Gates - and they ain't going to do it.

Again, I’m sure the Chinese can separate the HW and OS issues. The Chinese is not that stupid. Its wouldn’t take much for MS to port a Windows NT variant for PowerPC platform i.e. the Windows NT code base for PowerPC is already finished. A new HAL would be needed for Windows NT 4.0 to work on the current PowerPC based platforms. Another MS’s service e.g. WDM (part of NT5.X), DirectX and dotNET can be back ported to that HW platform. PowerPC wouldn’t be the insurance to keep MS at bay (refer to X-BOX 2).

Open sourced Windows CE for PowerPC would be another possibility.

Clues for the future PowerPC/X-BOX 2 and more Windows CE/PowerPC info refer to
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/Embedded/ce.NET/evaluation/hardware/processors.asp

A game bias Windows CE variant was running on Sega Dreamcast’s SH4 processor.

Sources for Windows CE and PowerPC tool kits
http://www.apogee.com/windows_ce_toolkits.html  

http://www.microsoft.com/catalog/display.asp?subid=22&site=763
; Microsoft® Windows® CE Toolkit for Visual Basic® 6.0 (PowerPC support is included).