:lol:
Thats skirting round my point, and you're right I did mean headroom :-D
Rasterisation hardware will get faster which gives you something for free as a developer, yes. That wasn't the headroom I was referring too.
Firstly, not everyone wants ray traced graphics. Ray tracing isn't going to make Geometry Wars look better for example.
Secondly, and part of the reason I linked that article, is that instead of switching to using ray tracing for everything (which has numerous pitfalls and caveats anyway) rasterisation is going to continue "winning" in terms of usage because it's free to pull the parts or ray tracing it wants into it's paradigm.
You've used lighting and thus shadows as an example of something perfect that you get for free. There's no reason this can't be combined with a rasteriation method so that the lighting and shading are calculated and combined in the pixel shader much like current shaders deal with deferred rendering.
I.e. rasterisation can absorb ray tracing but not the other way around.
There's other reasons it (ray tracing) probably won't replace rasterisation anytime soon, if ever, but this is already pretty far off topic.
Andy