Flu Pandemic Will Kill Millions!

[asian1]

A World Health Organization expert is ominously warning there's no question the global population will face another flu pandemic, it's just a matter of when.

Klaus Stohr, who works in the WHO's Global Influenza Program said, "There is no doubt there will be another pandemic."

He adds that this time, the deadly bird flu virus, blamed for 32 deaths in Thailand and Vietnam so far this year, "is certainly the most likely one that will cause the next pandemic."

Pandemics usually happen every 20 or 30 years when a flu strain changes dramatically and people have little immunity built up from previous bouts of the illness.

"During the last 36 years, there has been no pandemic, and there is a conclusion now that we are closer to the next pandemic than we have ever been before," Stohr said.

"There is no reason to believe that we are going to be spared."

In an effort to eradicate the bird flu virus in Asia, millions of chickens have been slaughtered. But Stohr says the continent is also the likely starting point for the next pandemic.

He also said such a health crisis would spare no one.

"Every country will be affected," he said. As a result, Stohr said many countries would be facing public health emergencies.

He estimated two to seven million people would die, and billions more would get sick.

During the 20th century, there have been three pandemics. The worst one was the Spanish flu in 1918-19. As many as 50 million people died of the Spanish flu worldwide.

As a precautionary measure, Stohr says countries should take stock of their antiviral drugs to make sure they have enough once a possible pandemic strikes.

[Karlos]

"During the last 36 years, there has been no pandemic, and there is a conclusion now that we are closer to the next pandemic than we have ever been before," Stohr said

Isn't that a bit like saying I'm older than I have ever been before?

Damnit I'm sure there is a word for this kind of "stating the obvious" expression.... Begins with T or something.

[X-ray]

@ Karlos

You might be thinking of redundancy, in which case the word is tautology.

But: I don't think the guy was making a statement based only on time, but rather the likelihood of the pandemic being real in the future because of the lack of preventative/containment measures.

It's kind of like saying: "The Abu Graibh atrocities have brought us closer to the next act of terrorism than we have ever been before"

[Karlos]

That was it! Unfortunately, due to the chemistry background, the words "tautomer", "tautomeric" and "tautomerism" kept coming up in the old noggin instead.

[Doobrey]

And from my background of watching cartoons, "I taut I taw a puddy cat" kept coming to my mind :crazy:

I`ve only just got over the last smegging cold, last thing I need is a dose of asian bird flu..

[KennyR]

There already has been a near-epidemic of the flu-like coronavirus, SAARs. It could have been the fatal epidemic. Bird flu is just another.

But as we can see from both, we're a bit more prepared for epidemics now than we ever were before. They can be controlled, if caught in time, and the virus doesn't get its chance to hit major populations and mutate into even deadlier strains.

And we live differently these days too. Not many people live in close proximity to birds. I mean, you might have them in your garden, but you don't live with them. During WW1, people lived in cramped, filthy conditions with livestock in the trenches - an ideal environment for these viruses to mutate. There was a huge flu epidemic in 1917 that killed millions, and it was no coincidence many believe.

As long as there is no major war, and people live apart from livestock, and there is the technology to trace people as they travel around the world, we're well protected from a major outbreak. It might still happen, but we're safer than we used to be. I don't think this "it goes around every 40 years!!" mantra really makes much sense. If that kind of thing were true, I'd have spent the 90s fighting another world war.

[asian1]

Latest development: 47 people are dead, 2 nurses got infected from a patient. Is this the beginning of human to human infection and pandemic?

From Reuters:

A Vietnamese nurse who tended a bird flu patient with a colleague who has since tested positive for the deadly virus has been hospitalized after showing symptoms of the disease, health officials said on Saturday.

"She has all the symptoms of having bird flu including fever and lung infection," said another official from Thuy Luong commune health center. "Test for bird flu is being conducted but results are not available yet."

The nurse had provided care for a 21-year-old man who caught the virus last month after drinking raw duck blood, a local delicacy. Her colleague, a 26-year-old male nurse who also tended the young man, tested positive for bird flu last week.

The patient, whose 14-year-old sister and grandfather were also infected after coming into contact with sick poultry, remained in critical condition, said health officials.

His sister was recovering while the grandfather did not show any symptom and remained healthy despite having the virus.

The Thai Binh bird flu cluster has prompted an investigation into whether relatives and health workers caught the virus directly from infected patients.

However, there is no evidence yet that the virus, which has killed 47 people in Asia, has mutated into a form that could pass easily between humans. Experts say if the virus did mutate in such a way, it could set off a pandemic that could kill millions.

The H5N1 virus has killed 34 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and one Cambodian since it swept across large parts of Asia in late 2003.

It has recurred several times despite the slaughter of millions of poultry and has spread across about half of Vietnam since the latest outbreak began in the Mekong Delta of southern Vietnam.