Is he guilty? Well usually.. If it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck, it's a duck.
They changed the law in California because of Jackson after the first molestation case was settled out of court for millions. Now there can be no such settlement, this is going to court. The police also claim to have rock solid evidence. This probably partially has to do with the kid being able to describe some abnormal feature of Jackson's penis.
This should be a slam dunk case, unless the jury is stacked with star struck fans like the abomination OJ trial :-x