Amount of MorphOS copies sold

[takemehomegrandma]

For starters, anyone running OS 4.0 can't run it.

By all means, let's add MorphOS 1.4 users to the picture as well then...? :rolleyes: Honesty, why start counting nickles and dimes in a discussion based on approximations in the hundreds, keep it in three digit figures, or at least two digit, no need to pay attention to the one digit figures...

you have to get a new registration for each new mac you have if you want to use morphos. so these morphos users have a lot of old macs laying around the house

Uhm yeah, "morphos users have a lot of old macs laying around the hose", you know, that post was so retarded that I will let it speak for itself without furhter comments...

Niko's AspireOS had 181 downloads since friday.

That's great, all the power to AspireOS! While not really comparable to neither MorphOS nor OS4, I downloaded it myself, I take a look on those distros from time to time to see who things are going, but that doesn't make me no more "AROS" user than HenryCase's AW.net buddies *talking about* OS4 could be called "OS4 users"...


@thread

I fully understands how talking about user numbers in the hundreds (or below) is provoking to some, but the key term is *user* (not participator in the AW.net social club), and to quote myself from *a year ago* in this thread: "If the numbers seems disappointing to some people, I think they may have had an unrealistic view of the overall 'state of the nation'."

[takemehomegrandma]

I fully understands how talking about user numbers in the hundreds (or below) is provoking to some, but the key term is *user* (not participator in the AW.net social club), and to quote myself from *a year ago* in this thread: "If the numbers seems disappointing to some people, I think they may have had an unrealistic view of the overall 'state of the nation'."

Fine. No how about you present a plan to correct that situation, now that we've completed the 11 page adventure to reach that obvious conclusion.

The only ones who would even bother trying to *use* (as a *desktop* system) MorphOS, OS4 or AROS are the old Amiga enthusiasts that are already here. As a desktop system, it simply won't offer anything to anyone else that established OS's won't do better, so no-one will bother even if given away *for free*, like we have seen with AROS. It can't attract users from the outside using the current model (read: the 1992 "desktop" model, remaining here from when the computer world looked completely different), so the amount of users each of these OS's have is a zero-sum game within the existing (and rapidly shrinking) "Amiga Community". All the OS developers knows this and has probably come to peace with this fact half a decade ago or more already, and none of them really cares, *they are all* (MorphOS, OS4 and AROS) developing their OS as a hobby, and they are developing it into something they would like to use themselves, with no thought about potential commercial applications for the OS outside the community.

Heck, not even Commodore thought of the Amiga as a PC. Had they had the resources and ambition to put up a fight with Microsoft (and Apple) back in the early 1990's where it could have mattered, then Amiga *could* have mattered on the desktop market today. I'm talking about a situation where the Adobe Creative Suite, Microsoft Office, etc, etc, etc would have been running on Amiga OS today (which would probably have been completely different by now anyway), not because someone put up a bounty and donated a developer machine to Apple or Microsoft, but because of Amiga's significance on the desktop market, much like they do on Mac OS. A high single-digit market share could have been enough. But Commodore never had that ambition (they were exploring their own PC line AFAIR), and they for sure didn't have the vast financial muscles this would have taken anyway, as became obvious to everyone in 1995, if not before.

You can say what you want about Bill Buck (and many does :lol:), but nobody can say he isn't constantly pursuing possibilities on new (or at least "new-ish") markets. His plan (through VisCorp) was to buy the Amiga bankrupt's estate and utilize Amiga technology in non-desktop context (while still providing a desktop "on the side"). While I don't think the ED ("Electronic Device", its development code name) would have been a great success back then (the real market for STB's wasn't there yet, at least not in Europe), I think it's a proper way of thinking about Amiga in a commercial context - use its strengths in real, commercial products for *other* markets than the desktop market, while still providing some kind of desktop configuration for developers.

So what are Amiga's strengths?

I think the most prominent strength (the only one) worth anything, is its tiny footprint, its leanness, it's efficiency. This can make really low performance (even "under-performing") devices feel fast, my Efika is a proof of that. And speaking of Efika, the LimePC (which was about to be far more than the netbook the OS4 crowd is talking about now, take a look at the pictures in post #3) can be considered an extrapolation of that one; and again: Here is Bill Buck, and again: Here is the Amiga (in the shape of MorphOS, in a non-desktop form (or at least: *Could* have been, had it been ported to the Efika 1.5 years faster, and then adapted to the needs accordingly after that)). And again: it fell through! :p

There are many areas where Amiga's strengths makes sense, many kind of devices that aren't desktop (and aren't tablet or smartphones either, those ships have also sailed), that benefits from ultra-cheap (virtually no cost), ultra-lean HW. SCALA (Hollywood?) type of applications, In-shop displays, Info Kiosks. In car/in flight/on train info systems/"infotainment", etc. 64-bit, SMP, Memory Protection, resource tracking, etc, etc, won't be needed, not really wanted either, since it will destroy the simplicity by making things complex. Those are desktop kind of things, something Amiga isn't.

And how do you harness these strengths in a commercial context? Well, the first step will obviously to decide that this is what you really want to do, that your primary goal is no longer a desktop for the vanishing Amiga community. You should then carefully *keep* it lean, simple and clean all the way, you don't arbitrary bloat it by throwing .so crap or desktop stuff into the picture in an ad-hoc manner. You should start putting together a package that could meet the demands of the market or market niche you are aiming for.

STB's got itself a real market half a decade past the "ED". I actually think Amiga would make sense in that context. And STB's are moving into TV's now, making them more than "just a TV". Amiga would make sense in a TV, but it would need development to do so. This is still unexplored territory, virgin estate, go claim it! In a few years, the "Apple TV" would have evolved and taken the full step into a 50" iTV you can put on your wall, and Android will as well, both having a new set of media (iMovies, instead of iTunes, oh wait, it's already here!) and a new App-store tuned for this new platform. Do it now, with the right partners, like electronics manufacturers, Spotify, Voddler, whatever (this is nothing you do as a five person, part time cellar company) and who knows, maybe you just might have a chance of claiming that single-digit market share you never got on the desktop market, by the time it becomes relevant to measure market shares on this yet to be developed market...?

But the thing is, those ultra-cheap and low-performance devices aren't made from PPC's, they are made from ARM, which disqualifies both MorphOS and OS4 before even getting to the starting line. These kinds of discussions are utterly pointless as it is.

The Science of Marketing isn't about how to put together an ad for a news paper or magazine, it's about identifying and satisfying needs on a market. And here is the shocker: There is no need on the desktop market for what MorphOS/OS4/AROS has to offer. The problem isn't about lacking promotion or advertizing, it's about completely lacking a commercial context.

But again, in any way, under any circumstances, *nothing* will happen as long as it's being tied to the PPC. The PPC is an Amiga killer, not an enabler, *especially* those costing $3,000...

[takemehomegrandma]

Version numbering is just numbers, but AmigaOS4 is still AmigaOS.

It's teh reel!!1!1!

(Wonder why it took so long...? :lol:)

[takemehomegrandma]

@amigadave

:rolleyes:

The reason to why MorphOS registrations are constantly increasing (yes dave, *increasing*) has nothing to do with what people thinks about me or anyone else on *any* website forum. It has everything to do with its qualities and its extremely low threshold of entry. It costs very little to get going, and you get very much for your money. As simple as that.

And the other way around - the reason to why the OS4 graph (had there been one) would look like the MorphOS graph flipped upside down (I'm quite certain it would) in this zero-sum game, has very little to do with peoples opinions of Ben Hermans OS4 community split, what they think of the Friedens regular primadonna rage tantrums, or what people thinks of some of the Amigans.net regulars. It has more to do with the extremely high threshold of entry.

At least when it comes to *real users* (not just people discussion in forums, which doesn't reflect real users very well at all)!

Money *does* matter, maybe not to you, but to most people. And so does what you get for your money. Chatting on a website forum is *not* the same thing as using a system, although HenryCase and some others seems to think so. The problem isn't discussions in forums, nor the participants in the discussions. The problem isn't people voicing their opinions about the lunacy of the X1000, or the redundancy of OS4. The problem is the people trying to suppress these kind of discussions, trying to streamline the collective mind that the problems are no problems at all, making it impossible for the community to collectively learn from these mistakes. Inflicting taboos on discussions is what brought us the X1000, and is what will bring us the X2000 costing twice as much, driving twice as many people away. And you want everyone to stand beside the track, and cheer as it happens, because doing anything else would be "negative", and heavens forbid that!

If I would die tomorrow, it wouldn't change one single thing for neither the MorphOS community, nor the OS4 community, nor the amount of users any of these may have, that's not how it works. Using MorphOS or OS4 or AROS or Classic isn't about kissing, hugging and rolling around in a pile of pillows, and if that is your belief, chances are that you are more into the Social Club thing, than actual usage of either of these systems. Introducing some kind of a "Newspeak Dictionary" where all words that could be used to describe OS4's problems (or the problems of the Amiga in general) are erased, and perhaps a thought police to go with that, won't, and I repeat: *won't* make the problems go away. Discussion might, at least it's a start. And anyone who doesn't agree with me (or anyone else for that matter) in a discussion, is completely free to raise their own voice, lifting their own opinion, putting forward their own arguments. There is nothing wrong with that, it's how it should be. So please stop "apologizing" for me "in the name of the MorphOS community".  People do have brains to think for themselves, and a voice to raise for themselves. You are not a spokes person for me or anyone else. It doesn't work like that.

[takemehomegrandma]

I don't know why but once again I got the flashback of this marvellous posting at ann.lu (we are living year 2004) : Red and Blue trolls

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Ah, those were the days...

[takemehomegrandma]

the graph shows that each new hardware platform has added fewer users than the previous.

Indeed it's cumulative, nobody claimed otherwise. And under all circumstances, it's a zero-sum game (few, if anyone at all, are coming in from the outside) in a situation where the total sum (thus *including* MorphOS) is shrinking, not growing. But that's not the point.  

And indeed you can see visible bumps as support for new systems are introduced. I myself am represented at the start of the curve (registering MorphOS 2.0 for my Pegasos 2) and again when Mac Mini was introduced. I'm only using my Mac Mini, so you could divide my "contribution" to the curve with 2; I'm only one user. Some Pegasos owners probably waited a bit as well. And some are probably still using their Pegasos as their only MorphOS system. Maybe some of the first Mac Mini owners later got themselves a Power Mac as well, when that was introduced. But registering MorphOS *is* a financial commitment, thus it's not realistic to think that a great deal of newcomers during *the later* years have multiple registrations; when they got the system (probably a Mac Mini or a PowerMac) they already got from the start what represents the peak of the current options available, thus having little reasons to get multiple licenses, generally speaking. Yet the trend continues, steadily, even though there were several years since support for the last HW was introduced.

You can also see how the *tilt* of the curve got visibly steeper after the introduction of Mac support (and this tilt has been steady for several years now), which clearly shows the benefit of cheap mainstream vs. more expensive custom solutions. Hmm, I wonder how steep the tilt would be, had x86 support been introduced...?

There are many lessons to be learned from this graph!

Again, this is a cumulative total so would probably look pretty similar.

No it probably woudln't, I'd say that the odds are "3000 to 200" (get the point? ) that more people from the Classic/AROS/OS4 got themselves a MorphOS machine, than Classic/AROS/MorphOS got themselves a OS4 machine.

[takemehomegrandma]

So would not say I was user.

Indeed the definition of "user" is very difficult, and for this reason you may be fooled to think that one platform has more *users* than the other, judged by forum activity (you are still here chatting, aren't you? ). But at least this phenomenon should strike equally across the entire platform...

[takemehomegrandma]

Time you backed up your claims isn't it?

That is *all* I have been doing ever since HenryCase started this debate, and the keywords are (and always were):

-probably

-I'm not claiming to be sitting on a complete set of statistics, there simply is no way of knowing for sure, we can only make assumptions and more or less educated guesses.

-I'm *not* claiming with certainty that things are this way

-in no way could be considered as facts

-*could*

-*Plausible*, not a fact

-While not claiming with certainty that *it is* this way, I have during my posts put up at least 6 facts that combined gives a plausible case how it *could be* this way

You see, Henry made a Case on how the possibility of MorphOS would have more users than OS4 would be an inconceivable, extraordinary claim, just wishful thinking, not anything based in reality, and he based this upon "facts" like posting frequency on web forums, the general opinion, and Aminet *uploads*. I discussed how it *could* be this way, using reasonable assumptions based on the limited statistics we actually have at hand, combined with a view of a plausible effect and impact of the differences in the MorphOS/OS4 offerings when it comes to HW, OS and most of all, the price/threshold for a user to "get going" on either of the two ($200 vs $3,000 *will* have an effect). Not claiming it to be facts, just putting up a discussion on its probability.

If you aren't going to read my posts anyway, please don't ask me to write new ones...


@zylesea

You didn't read quite the whole thread before making that post, did you?

[takemehomegrandma]

OK, what started, and ended, as a 5 page thread *a year ago*, has now grown to 17 pages, that's 11 pages containing nothing but upset emotions against the probability of MorphOS having more users than OS4. I actually find this hilarious, astonishing, and I guess you can learn something every day about the mindset of some people in this "community". What I have learned from this thread, is:

1. MorphOS registration statistics are utterly worthless as a base for user number estimations (estimations != facts), since everyone knows that MorphOS users has piles of old Macs with registered copies of MorphOS lying around their houses.

2. Timberwolf download statistics are utterly worthless as a base for OS4 user number estimations (estimations != facts), since so few active OS4 users would bother downloading it for free to try out the Frieden's take on Firefox for OS4 (a pretty insignificant piece of SW anyway, that *nobody* has been waiting for since 1995). New browsers aren't needed anyway, since "MUI OWB 1.9" satisfies every browser need an OS4 users would have.

3. A much better way of getting a picture of current amount of users, would be to look at forum activity on Amigaworld.net and Amigans.net vs. MorphZone.org, and to look at Aminet uploads. This will give you the *correct* picture of OS4 having a lot more users than MorphOS.

4. Things like threshold of entry can *not* affect amount of users over long periods of time. A few years of $20 (twenty dollars) systems (plus €111 MorphOS registration) systems available will *not* attract more users than a $1,000+ system, especially not since the former runs circles around the latter. Not to mention the $3,000 option, performing at about the same level as the former. And "it is far more likely that the OS4 user base is bigger than MOS IMHO considering the fact that ACube and AEon have both also invested in its future."

5. And things like one OS being here half a decade before the other, always having had the upper hand when it comes to qualities and features, etc, can't play a part in the total amount of users either. And who needs drivers for their HW?

6. Pointing out the possibility of MorphOS (in respect to the above discarded points) could actually have more users than OS4, would only be "wishful thinking", an "extraordinary claim" needing extraordinary evidence, since "the general opinion" says otherwise (and there is no need to prove "the general opinion's" view, especially not when "the general opinion's" view is based on how much fun it is doing IRC style chatting at Amigaworld.net). And...

7. ...anyone *daring* to point out this possibility of MorphOS could having more users than OS4, as a result of the differences between OS4's and MorphOS's approaches to the world, is "a dog barking" that "insult the original Amiga creators and users with a saying like this", simply put an evil troll who should collectively be beaten into submission and blamed and branded as being the one responsible for the shrinking of the Amiga community, because...

8. ...everyone knows that it's the online posts from a single user in a community forum that determines the usefulness and desirability of a computer system, and not the technical merits and threshold of entry, and people leaving the community is not doing so because the complete absence of any kind of credible future, and fresh users not entering the community is not because Amiga can't offer anything whatsoever to the desktop market it tries to serve. So the correct online behavior is to stand in straight lines, cheering "Yes", "Yes", "Yes" as soon as a new $3,000 system with 2007 level laptop performance is being introduced as the answer to humanity's collective prayers, because doing anything else, like calling this development insanity, would be "Negativity". And the only thing that will revitalize and bring Amiga to world domination, is "Positivism", which makes perfect sense, since it's the online posts in web forums in a forgotten corner of the Internet that matters, and not stupid things like characteristics, features and a credible future of *the products*.

By the way, the entire post above (except the initial paragraph) is written in a style called sarcasm (Wikipedia: Sarcasm). I am explicitly pointing this out, since it has become obvious to me that the reading comprehension (Wikipedia: Reading Comprehension) is very low in the remaining community, since nobody seems to understand the concept of words and terms like "probable", "possible", "plausible", "could be", "reasonable", "estimations", "assumptions", "not facts", "user" and "discussion". (I can't be bothered to link an explanation to each of these words, you can look it up yourselves: Wikipedia.org)

It's obvious that the Amiga community isn't ready to deal with things like realistic estimations of current active user base, it probably contradicts its deeply rooted image of itself as being counted in several thousands, especially the OS4 side. I'm OK with that, but the discussion in this thread is going in circles, it leads nowhere. So maybe it's time to close the thread now? Maybe reality may sink in in time, and this subject can be discussed again in the future, but "we" are obviously not ready for this yet...

Over and out!