Amount of MorphOS copies sold

[takemehomegrandma]

For those who doesn't know; there is a never-ending thread over at MorphZone.org where people reports their newly acquired MorphOS serial numbers.

Koszer made a graph based on that info, and it's kind of interesting:





(To future MorphOS users - please post your serial number in the MorphOS counter thread! )

[takemehomegrandma]

disapiointing? given the amount of active members, poll entries and downloads i would count somewhere about 300 active users for os4, about the same for advanced 68k, not counting unexpanded/gaming crowd. and aros scoring under 100 serious users atm, mos of them devs themselves.

I'm with you here.

MorphOS probably has 2x the amount of AROS and OS4 users combined (and I'm not saying that this graph reflects the amount of users, only registrations *sold*).

If the numbers seems disappointing to some people, I think they may have had an unrealistic view of the overall "state of the nation". And it may have been because I had a more "realistic" view of the Amiga situation in 2011 (there is *no real market*) that I think this graph is *excellent*!

And you can read out a change in the trend as well; like how *the slope* of the curve chanbes after the Mac support was introduced. Cheap and easily obtainable hardware (although still PPC)!

[takemehomegrandma]

As its been increasing over time I expect it to continue.
Once Powerbook support is introduced, Amiga users looking for a laptop will have that option.
With that and possible Apple G5 support I can only see the user base increasing.

I think powerbook will render another bump in the graph (mostly because of additional sales to already established users, and because the joining of people from "other camps"), but I don't think a G5 would have as big effect. But maybe it will.

But growth in sales doesn't come from growth of the total "market" (that is probably shrinking), but from already established users getting a second (or indeed a third) copy for some new type of HW they like (like me having a license or Pegasos2 and getting another for Mac Mini because that HW is so much better), as well as people from other "camps" either migrating or "getting both". I think the latter will increase!

[takemehomegrandma]

No way to count the cheap bastards that don't mind rebooting every 30 minutes.

Indeed!

MorphOS is actually *very* usable in its unregistered form! 30 minutes isn't that short time, and reboot is extremely fast! (Edit: Wow, I'm really helping MorphOS sales now! )

And I still think there are some MorphOS 1.4 users out there as well! MorphOS 2.x isn't available for PowerUP, for example...

[takemehomegrandma]

(And I do agree with a previous poster, and I also suspect there are more 68k users than all MOS, AOS4, and AROS combined.

*Real Users*, or collectors/enthusiasts/nostalgics/etc that do have the stuff, but spends all of their time talking about it on Amiga.org? :p

MorphOS is usable for "real". It even has a web browser that beats the current Internet Explorer in some areas (like CSS3)!

[takemehomegrandma]

This sounds more like wishful thinking on your part than anything based in reality.

I'm not claiming to be sitting on a complete set of statistics here, there simply is no way of knowing for sure, we can only make assumptions and more or less educated guesses.

Sure, some users undoubtedly have multiple MorphOS systems registered (I have 2 myself), but there should also be a lot of people having only ONE registration. Even if the MorphOS hardware is very cheap, MorphOS registrations aren't exactly for free. New users in recent years (that got themselves a, say, PowerMac or Mac Mini as their first MorphOS system) probably won't see a reason to register a second computer of similar kind. This may change when PowerBook support is introduced with the release of MorphOS 3.0, it will be interesting to see how the registration graph develops after that. And you must remember that MorphOS is perfectly usable (without any limitations whatsoever) without a registration, at least for 30 minutes at a time...

There seems to be some sort of general consensus that "a fair number of users" would currently be obtained by dividing the registrations with 2, and I agree, I think it's a fair assumption. This would give around 700 MorphOS users, which is a pretty decent number actually!

Timberwolf for OS4 has been downloaded 770 times at the moment. I *sincerely doubt* that any active OS4 user haven't downloaded this piece of software by now, given all the hype, all the attention, and the poor browser situation on the OS4 platform in general. It's "the holy grail" in the OS4 world. I think it's fair to assume that close to 100% of all active OS4 users has downloaded Timberwolf now, when almost a month has passed after its release. But don't forget that many active OS4 users today have multiple systems as well, this is not a phenomenon limited to MorphOS. Multiple downloads comes from this. And as has been pointed out, there might be some problems downloading SW using some of the OS4 browsers, resulting in multiple downloads per user simply because of troubles/errors, people will DL it again after re-installing their computer, etc. And (as we have seen in the past), you can't rule out that some people actually makes multiple downloads simply to make a "statement" through these kinds of statistics (especially after numbers have been publicly discussed).

Anyway, I think it's a fair assumption to divide that number by *at least* 2 as well, which gives a picture of about half the amount of active OS4 users compared to MorphOS users, meaning some 300-350 people, possibly less.

I don't want to belittle AROS in any way, but MorphOS and OS4 plays in a completely different league. I sincerely believe that very few people (other than the developers and some hardcore enthusiasts, counted in a two-digit number in total) *actually uses it* actively, at least in a comparable manner as MorphOS and OS4 is being used. I think people may download it (various "distros") from time to time out of curiosity, to check out how far it has come since the last time they checked it out.

About 700 active MorphOS users would mean 2x the amount of about 300 active OS4 users coupled with some 50 active AROS users.

But again, your guess is as good as mine...

[takemehomegrandma]

Since KimmoK decided to bump this one year old thread anyway, I take the opportunity to post the latest graph!

Here it is:



The last reported number was #1344, almost exactly a month ago.

I understand how Pegasos1, Pegasos2, and Efika users wanted to upgrade to Mac Mini (and thus get themselves a second license, showing in the visible bump around 30.10.2009), I did so myself.

Some existing users may have decided to purchase a Power Mac to be able to use graphic cards with more memory and/or faster CPU cards (the tiny (is it even there?) bump at 30.10.2010).

I think it's fair to assume that another batch of "multiple licenses" will happen after the MorphOS 3.0/PowerBook release, which will create another noticeable bump in the graph.

Other than that, there is a *steady* growth rate in registrations with about #20 entities per month, or 100 people per half-year. Not a very big number perhaps, but it's a steady growth that isn't directly connected to MorphOS introducing support for new HW. It's a clearly visible trend, spanning over several years. I think most of those registrations comes from Classic users and OS4 users deciding to get themselves a cheap and powerful MorphOS system!

It's worth noticing how the *tilt* of the curve (the growth speed) became *visibly steeper* after MorphOS 2.4 (Mac Mini/First Apple HW supported). Conclusion: Supporting a mainstream HW platform like the Apple Mac *was a good decision*, despite the Mac's only being available as second hand. Price *does* matter (hear that Acube and A-EON? ), so does the acknowledged quality and low risk of well tried, mainstream stuff, and so does the fact that it's so easy to obtain.

And of course, so does the features, performance and qualities of MorphOS!

[takemehomegrandma]

@Lando

+1

[takemehomegrandma]

you should be careful with making too much of this

I'm not. I don't even know why I threw that stupid sentence in there (the last thing I did before hitting the submit button). Had I known that this would be the only argument of mine you would have noticed, I would have left it out completely...

I've heard accounts of OS4 users saying they're not going to bother with it until it's more mature.

I'm sorry, but that's bollocks. I don't deny that there might exist one or two OS4 users who won't bother (for whatever reason), but not very many on top of that. It's kind of like saying that "No, I won't bother downloading the free OS4.1.1 or OS4.1.2 updates because they doesn't have USB2 yet". The browser situation on OS4 is dire, AFAIK many OS4 users have to use several browsers for different things and purposes, and here comes Timberwolf, what everyone has been waiting for since 1995, a freely downloadable software from the holy Frieden twins, the browser that may solve everyone's problems. "I won't download it for free and try it"?! Not very likely, not among the active users...

the momentum for AROS continues to build

Maybe. The Odyssey 1.16 release was definitely one step in the right direction...

it's not a question of 'if' it'll catch up/overtake the other two, but 'when'.

...but I sincerely doubt that however. There is nothing that speaks in favor of that.

How active are the following forums:

I'm sorry, but that's a terrible instrument of measurement, utterly useless, it's impossible draw one single conclusion from that. Most MorphOS users are posting more on amiga.org and amigaworld.net than they are posting on morphzone.org. It has more to do with site culture, "site momentum" (people go where the discussions take place) etc. Even Fab (a MorphOS core developer) used to post on amigans.net. MorphZone.org has always been a "quiet" place, or rather free from the pointless, shallow noise that other sites suffer from, it has more depth (and there is also an active mailing list where most support issues are handled). 10-20 people using amigaworld.net like it would be an IRC channel may give the impression of activity, but you can't possibly draw any conclusion of how many active MorphOS/OS4/AROS users there are based on these kind of impressions, not when many community members are occasionally posting on *all* the forums you mentioned (regardless of their preferred system of choice), and many are also using more than one system. There are many "silent" MorphOS users, sometimes you gets surprised, not expecting this or that person to ever try MorphOS, and suddenly it shows in a discussion that they are even registered users. And many of the posters aren't even using *either* of the systems anymore, they are just participating in the social club...

[takemehomegrandma]

1320 downloads, and this is downloads for a single version, no upgrades. Let's use your 'divide by 2' method to take into account the multi-system users, which gives us 660. Bit different from your 300 users estimate eh.

No, sorry, still doesn't compute the way you wants; you are talking about aggregate statistics from a 6+ months period of time, during which many re-installations took place (OS4.1.3 did cause *major* problems for many users, of which many have more than one system, and many users probably made a clean re-install after the OS4.1.4 release as well, which *also* happened during this time). And then came OS4.1.5 for the X1000. How many X1000's are there? 100? 200? 300? I think it's fair to assume that 99%+ of those were sold to already existing OS4 users (accepting a $3,000 deal like that takes a certain amount of... ehm, "enthusiasm" (read: fanaticism)), and these systems got their share of that statistics as well. And there are definitely some Sam systems sold to existing OS4 users as well during this time (same as for the X1000: Few people outside the dedicated OS4 crowd would accept the Sam deal as well).

You would have to divide that number by a lot more than 2, but it's difficult (impossible!) to say by how much, since it's such a long period of time, in which way too many things happened that affects way too many parameters in way too unpredictable ways...

It's interesting that you dismiss one way to analyse active users

Because it's *not* a way of analyzing active users. You could as well go out counting the blades of grass in your front lawn, and use that as a base for your assumptions.

Look, it's obvious that the possibility of MorphOS having more users than OS4 is very sensitive/emotional for you. But please don't be naive.

The hardware situation for OS4 is hopeless. In comparison to MorphOS, it has *always* been hopeless. One option costs $3,000+ and offers very little (performance wise) over current MorphOS hardware, and has much to wish for when it comes to support in OS4. The other option costs $1,000+ and offers about the same performance as my Efika MX, costing 1/10th as much, and this one too isn't fully supported by the OS (or are the audio drivers ready now?)

This in "competition" (what competition, really...?) to the high quality, powerful and cheap Mac hardware that MorphOS has been running on since summer 2010. Mac Mini's for $100-$200, PowerMac's and eMac's for $20 and up. Good quality hardware, that runs circles around any Sam system, virtually *for free* (some eMac's and PowerMac's *are* actually for free, if you serch over time)! And downloading and trying out MorphOS costs exactly $0.00.

Is it really that inconceivable for you that this had its impact on amount of users for OS4 and MorphOS respectively since 2010?

And if we look at the previous generations of hardware, OS4 were in a similar underdog position in comparison to MorphOS when it came to hardware; the AmigaOne series of computers were always priced way much higher than the Pegasos2, they had worse CPU options, and they were crippled by the Articia S and bug-ridden by general design flaws. Is it really that inconceivable for you that this had its impact on amount of users for OS4 and MorphOS respectively?

And if we look at how long the two OS's have been "open for business", how long they have been here and able to attract users to their flocks; if I remember correctly, I got my first Pegasos 1 with MorphOS 1.0 in December 2001 (first public beta was released for Amiga computers in 02-Aug-2000). Then came and went 2002. Then came and went 2003. Then came 2004, and in the late spring/early summer, I was able to buy an AmigaOne XE with the first pre-release version of OS4. During all that time, where OS4 *simply didn't exist*, MorphOS was available to everyone wanting to try it out, it was constantly being developed, it evolved, moving its positions forward on every front. Is it really that inconceivable for you that this had its impact on amount of users for OS4 and MorphOS respectively?

And if we look at the qualities of the two OS's, MorphOS is the one with the best features, the most features, best stability, the original Amiga standards (like MUI, Poseidon USB, CGX, etc) in the very latest versions, not bundled in a "contrib" drawer, but *integrated* in the OS, and the one having the best Amiga compatibility (funny to see how even Hyperion's own games won't run on OS4, while working just fine on MorphOS), and for the last couple of years, it has been the only option having a modern and fully working web browser option. Is it really that inconceivable for you that this had its impact on amount of users for OS4 and MorphOS respectively?

MorphOS has always been ahead, it has been here longer, it has always had the better and the cheaper hardware. You are naive if you don't think this have had an impact during the last decade. The only thing OS4 can bring to the table that MorphOS can't, is a boing ball (TM). But maybe people aren't just as prepared to pay $3,000 (THREE THOUSAND DOLLARS!!!) for that boing ball (TM) as you thought, only to be able to run an OS that has always been chasing MorphOS in its footsteps, a few miles back? Maybe money *does* matter to most people, even Amigans, and maybe performance and features *does* matter as well? Maybe (just maybe) all these things combined led to MorphOS having a bigger user base today? Shock! Horror!

I'm *not* claiming with certainty that things are this way, but I have tried putting up "educated guesses", assumptions and arguments, that at least are based on some kind of numbers/statistics. You think this is totally inconceivable, "it simply can't be true", yada yada, but your only argument for things *not* being this way, seems to be how much some people (of which many are MorphOS and AROS users) are chatting about today's weather, CUSA's evilness, DiscreetFX's latest press release, the endless debate on PPC vs. x86 or whatever, over at amigaworld.net... :rolleyes:

[takemehomegrandma]

we should think about how to attract new users/developers and not who is the biggest between the three "dwarfes".

/me raises hand eagerly: "I know the answer! I know the answer! Please let *me* answer! Since the X1000 means such a great jump in users for OS4 this must be the way to do it, but let's increase all variables to make it even more of a way forward for the platform, let's make a computer with *eight* cores for our Single CPU Only platform, using some aging CPU from an *even more dead* upstart of a company from the history books, with some bolted on 'Yihad' chip offering a 'Yorro' bus, costing... hmm, FOUR thousand dollars!!1!"

[takemehomegrandma]

@TMHG

what on earth is with your obsession with OS4?

What do you mean?

Someone bumps up a one year old thread, that was about *MorphOS* user numbers (we *are* allowed to discuss MorphOS user numbers, right, or is that "negativity" in some weird OS4-way?), then HenryCase tries to make a case on how it's very unlikely that MorphOS can have more users than OS4 (mostly based on his personal Amigaworld.net/MorphZone.org experience as it turned out), and I pointed out how it very much *can* be so, based on recent statistics, while repeatedly stating that it in no way could be considered as facts.

And here you come, proclaiming me guilty of the crime of... well, I don't know, but you obviously do...

you and folks like you are a big reason morphOS turns me off. seriously.

Well, Sir, I am very sorry I don't please you, I apologize so very much. *A whole bunch* of people among the OS4 crowd (includins ssolie, the friedens, etc, heck, probably a majority of the OS4 people posting at amigans.net) are guilty of pissing off a lot of people as well. The AROS crowd are close to none-existent, but I'm sure more than one has been in disagreement with Dammy over the years. What you think of people is highly subjective. You obviously gets pissed off by whoever claims that MorphOS *could* have more users, but not by anyone claiming *OS4* could have more users. I'm not the one claiming that user numbers matters the slightest anyway, they are much too low all over anyway, and I don't care, I'm not the one with an obsession here. But it's interesting to note that if someone claiming that there could be measurable signs that MorphOS might actually be the more popular of the two, they have "an OS4 obsession", but when someone claims the opposite, it's just fine and dandy. And I'll tell you what, if you base your choice of Amiga OS upon these kind of things instead of their actual technical merits and stuff like that, then it's really *your* problem.

[takemehomegrandma]

But I wouldnt claim MorphOS has more users than AROS and SO4 in total. It is completely wrong and also irrelevant when number of users is counted in hundreds.

It's also irrelevant because of the sliding definition of "users". I downloaded AmiKit a few weeks ago. I have booted it up a couple of times, and I even provided some bug reports that led to a new release. I still have it on my computer. Am I a user?

I haven't booted up my Pegasos 2 for three years, but I have it here with MorphOS installed. Am I a Pegasos 2 user? And similar - people having AmigaOne XE's collecting dust besides their PC's, not having used it forever, but actively participating in OS4 discussions on Amigaworld.net using Google Chrome on the Windows 7 box, are they OS4 users?

However, paying €111 in order to obtain a key file, *is* actually a sign of commitment far higher than casually installing AmiKit on a Wintel 7 box, or curiously looking up how far Icaros 1.4 has developed since version 1.3, and there are actual numbers to be read here, the only question is how to interpret them (if you should divide by 2 or something else). And I still actually *do* believe that close to 100% of all active OS4 users have downloaded Timberwolf at least once (probably 2-3 times per average users, due to multiple systems and re-installations).

[takemehomegrandma]

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".

I have understood that you think it is, but just why would this be such an extraordinary claim?

The general opinion regarding numbers of OS4 and MorphOS users

Who decides what is the "general opinion"? Isn't this kind of subjective?

I believe "the general opinion", is that OS4 is *way* more popular than MorphOS, especially among OS4 users themselves. Why? Because "It's the Amiga" of course! It's "teh reel!!1", it's the true successor, etc. It simply *must* be, otherwise it would be... well, terrible!

I also guess that this is the reason to why the "Those numbers...." thread at AW.net got eight pages of discussion, when someone made the observation that the highly hyped and very much anticipated Firefox/HolyGrail/Timberwolf only got a few hundred downloads in total. It didn't quite match "the general opinion" that OS4 has a few thousand users (yes, I do think that some people actually believes that)...

there better be some substance behind your claims as you can expect people to question them. Making bold statements, then saying they're not based on facts, does not cut it.

...says he who makes bold claims based on little substance beyond how much fun he has chatting with his friends at Amigaworld.net... :p

What *I* did in my recent posts, was highlighting a series of arguments...

1. MorphOS has *sold* almost 1,400 licenses (paying €111-€150 is a commitment)
2. The very much anticipated Firefox beta is only downloaded 770 times after a whole (almost) month
3. Current MorphOS hardware is faster (or about as fast) and cheaper by a magnitude compared to OS4 HW.
4. This was also true for the "previous generation" of HW (The Pegasos/AmigaOne)
5. MorphOS was here several years before OS4, hence it has had a much longer time to "gather a flock"
6. MorphOS qualities/specs/merits etc are higher/better than OS4, and has always been

...that together *could* explain a higher number of MorphOS users, I never claimed it to be a fact, just a counter argument towards your "no it can't be true, there are many more discussions on AW.net than on MorphZone.org".

Sit down, relax, take a deep breath and consider the following: The threshold of getting a MorphOS system is extremely low. Depending on your demands and luck, you could very well be up and running after spending €150-€200, with hardware much faster than the Pegasos 2, *including* a full MorphOS registration. The threshold of getting an OS4 system is on the other hand extremely high, up to 10x as high actually. Anyone believing this won't have a practical effect on user numbers over time, is either extremely naive, or outright dumb. While MorphOS has a constant growth of 20 registrations per month/100 registrations per half year, OS4 probably has a constant *decrease* in numbers due to aging AmigaOne XE's dying off while their owners not having the money (or can't justify the ridiculous cost to themselves) to spend on a Sam/X1000.

@eliyahu: Don't like what I'm saying? Too bad, but sometimes life is a bitch, and please don't shoot the messenger. So put your head in the sand and sing the X1000 song, while we extrapolate the trends (both MorphOS's and OS4's) another 6 months. We don't want to discuss the problems, right? Ouch, that "negativity", no let's stay in the happy land, where OS4 has a great future thanks to the X1000 and Sam routes, PPC all the way...!

[takemehomegrandma]

In a user base as small and fractured as ours I'd suggest that being able to sell a product at all is quite an achievement.

Indeed.