@Fabio
Regarding applications, what I describe as "mindless optimism" is the expectation that people will just develop for it and port for it because it is like AmigaOS, despite the fact that there aren't any users and there is no visible market.
When I ask "why?", the answer seems to be "they just will, you'll see".
As for the community, much of it is the result of the hype. How many people on aros-exec.org use it or develop for it on a daily basis? 10? 20? 100? Less? Most of the AROS enthusiasts are there because of what they want AROS to become rather than what it is likely to be any time soon.
I don't have a ready answer for you, but yes, following the current priorities I do believe AROS is doomed. Or at least doomed to linger indefnitely on the verge of being a serious OS, but never quite getting there.