Sysinfo reports 38mips for my 40mhz '040, so an '060@50mhz is clearly more than that, let alone an overclocked '060.
Also Cinepak isn't restricted to video as low quality as the sample videos on OS3.9. I converted transformers3 to avi/cinepak a while back and it looks quite decent. I tried with IV as well and Cinepak is a bit cleaner. IV does however compress better, and will give better image quality the faster the cpu (doesn't drop as many frames on slower hardware, but instead will lower image quality(why it was suitable for online video in the late 90's.)
This "improved" picture quality of course only scales as far as the source materials encoding.
As for ffplay, correct me if Im mistaken, but aren't arthurs compiles statically linked against sdl?
Im not aware of a native backend for it against cgx/p96