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Author Topic: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86  (Read 43577 times)

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Offline Karlos

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #194 from previous page: November 02, 2010, 09:45:02 AM »
Quote from: takemehomegrandma;587939
Meanwhile, in the real world, the idea that actually anyone else outside the very small and tight amigaworld.net/amigans.net circle *would even consider* chipping up a staggering UKP 1,500++/USD 2,400++/EUR 1,700++ (ANYONE AT ALL!!) for this kind of unproven, 2007 level performance HW, that has no other benefit than being able to run a "gimmick" (to anyone else but the above mentioned tight circle) OS4, is nothing short of ridiculous.


I don't imagine people outside the amiga community buying the X1000 either. Sadly, the real world exists outside this community all together. Spending money, any money, on amiga stuff - especially "next gen" is nothing short of ridiculous to people that aren't already fans. What, you think that absolutely anybody outside the amiga community, is going to go on ebay to buy an obsolete mac, no matter how cheap to procure, spend 100 euros kitting it out with an OS they've never heard of that, for all it's maturity in amiga circles, is eclipsed by completely free operating systems in any area they are likely to care about?
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Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #195 on: November 02, 2010, 11:22:28 AM »
Quote from: the_leander;588641
And your evidence for this lies in what? Not to get off on a rant here, but Aeon are a completely untested and unknown quantity. You have the Sam which is a great deal more reasonable on the wallet and sales for it have pretty much dried up - practically everyone who wanted one has one.


And your evidence for this lies in what? :-P

We have to accept that we're all mostly in the dark and trying to make educated guesses here, which means we're unlikely to agree, and asking for evidence either way is meaningless...

With respect to the SAM, I'd argue that the coming 460 is a good indication that sales are going reasonably well, or they'd hardly invest in a new model, especially with the upcoming competition. But that too is a guess.

Quote

The X1000 is competing against the Sam in terms of AmigaNG-OS4 and against old mac gear for MorphOS. If your kick is nostalgia then it's competing against UAE, Minimig and classic hardware. It is entering a relatively small market from the top end, which is itself limiting.


The price is limiting, but it is also the first new computer to run AmigaOS that's powerful to entice people like me back to this community, even if it's slow when compared to x86 machines. I'm by far not the only one who have come back to Amiga forums as a result of wanting to buy the X1000. So while the market is limited, the X1000 is showing signs of at least attracting *some* people outside of the current market.

That, to me, indicates that while they're certainly not going to sell bundles, they might have hit a sweet spot in terms of maximizing revenue, which is far more important than maximizing number of units if A-Eon is going to become a viable business (even as Trevor Dickinson's "hobby")

Quote

You may well be well off, but many/most people aren't, especially with the credit crunch in full swing. Your line of reasoning might well work for you but I just can't see it translating to anyone who isn't pretty well off.


I'm not arguing that everyone will be able to afford it, because clearly there will be people that can't. I'm arguing that this community has enough people with cash to spare, and that the amounts of money being spent on old and slow hardware is a pretty good indication of the amounts of cash people can be prepared to spend on hobbies like these, with no concern for the actual performance or "utility" of the system. People have far more expensive hobbies with far less utility.

In previous threads I've pointed out that from a financial point of view for AEon, the high price point is also not a bad thing per se in a market like this when they're the only alternative for someone wanting a "high end" Amiga.

There's substantial price flexibility in niche markets that you don't find in more competitive markets. Sales will be smaller at, say, 1500GBP than at 1000GBP or 500GBP, for sure, but probably not enough to make up for the difference in percentage margin they'd be able to "hide" in the higher price, so I'd argue they're better off aiming for the high end, both because there's at least some signs they're attracting people that wouldn't otherwise consider an AmigaOS machine, and because they might be able to survive on far lower total sales (in pounds/euros, not just units) and that the price elasticity in this market is so big that sales are not likely to fall off in proportion to the price increasing.

Of course, this is guesswork, but it is guesswork that has some basis in how niche markets actually work: They *do* generally have far higher price elasticity; they *do* tend to see a lot less focus on hard numbers and price/performance compared to other factors (people who care mostly about price/performance generally go for the mainstream products instead)

Quote

 Cost comes high, but even if you could afford it you are still going to be asking some pretty hard questions about what the hardware is going to offer you against the alternatives I've listed.


No, I'm not. It's the first computer to run AmigaOS4 that's feels like it'll be "fast enough" for me to give it serious use. It's passing a threshold. That's enough.

The XMOS chip and the recent hint that it might be possible for them to get Linux running in parallel with AOS4 on the second core are interesting bonuses that rise the geek appeal, but not necessary. The rest doesn't really factor in. Call it a midlife crisis if you want - I want the X1000 instead of the Ferrari.

We can argue (based on guesses on both sides, since neither of us have any actual data) about the number of people who'll think about the X1000 like me, but that this market segment exists is clear (I'm proof, for starters, though I'm afraid my pockets aren't deep enough to carry the X1000 on my own :-P )

Quote

 Capabilities and performance most definitely feature heavily into any equation that is as highly priced as the X1000 promises to be.


You're looking at this from a utility point of view, but utility does not govern this type of niche market.

If I cared about capabilities and performance, I could get an Intel Core i7 Quad core 3.2GHz based machine with 12GB memory and a GeForce GTX480 with 1.5GB memory and a 2TB harddrive for the same price, that would wipe the floor with the X1000. Or I could wipe the floor with it with a cheaper machine and have enough money left over for a weekend in a good hotel.

But I have my other computers for the performance. The X1000 and other Amiga-related kit I plan to buy is for fun. I value fun far higher than performance I don't need.
 

Offline the_leander

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #196 on: November 02, 2010, 12:10:14 PM »
Quote from: vidarh;588722
And your evidence for this lies in what? :-P


The fact that when previous models of the Sam ceased production amiga resellers still had stocks of the things for months afterwards. Consider that these are limited production run machines.

Quote from: vidarh;588722


I'm not arguing that everyone will be able to afford it, because clearly there will be people that can't. I'm arguing that this community has enough people with cash to spare


In pure numbers maybe (though if I'm honest I really doubt even that). But that market is heavily segmented. You're not taking into account that a significant chunk of your "potential market" doesn't give a rats ass about OS4.

Look at the OS4 centric forums on AW.net and Amigans. These people constitute the hardcore of OS4 support and yet collectively they shat a brick when they got wind of the price.

Quote from: vidarh;588722

, and that the amounts of money being spent on old and slow hardware is a pretty good indication


No, it really isn't and you're completely missing the point. Yes, there is some overlap between those who want the classic kit and those who are into the NG gear. But not all. For many people they are buying that old hardware is buying back a bit of their childhood or buying addons for pre-existing classic kit.

OS4 and it's associated hardware might as well be an entirely different platform.




Quote from: vidarh;588722

so I'd argue they're better off aiming for the high end, both because there's at least some signs they're attracting people that wouldn't otherwise consider an AmigaOS machine, and because they might be able to survive on far lower total sales (in pounds/euros, not just units) and that the price elasticity in this market is so big that sales are not likely to fall off in proportion to the price increasing.


If the X1000 ever breaks even, by which I mean pays for its own development costs. I'll be very surprised.

Quote from: vidarh;588722

Of course, this is guesswork, but it is guesswork that has some basis in how niche markets actually work: They *do* generally have far higher price elasticity; they *do* tend to see a lot less focus on hard numbers and price/performance compared to other factors (people who care mostly about price/performance generally go for the mainstream products instead)


Yeah except the other retro markets I see operate on a much more realistic models, sure rare original stuff sells at a premium, but "new" hardware is sold at reasonable prices. All you do when you produce a ridiculously expensive piece of kit is limit your market, in a market as small and fractious as it is for OS4, beyond a handful like you, the rest of the market leaves you for dead. See the reaction on AW.net and Amigans for details.

Quote from: vidarh;588722

No, I'm not. It's the first computer to run AmigaOS4 that's feels like it'll be "fast enough" for me to give it serious use. It's passing a threshold. That's enough.


You may not, but it would be a mistake to presume others think like you. You want it, great.

Quote from: vidarh;588722

The XMOS chip


*facepalm*



Quote from: vidarh;588722

 and the recent hint that it might be possible for them to get Linux running in parallel with AOS4 on the second core are interesting bonuses that rise the geek appeal, but not necessary.


Yeah the key word in that is "hint".

Here's a clue since you seem to be new here: Hyperion lie.


Quote from: vidarh;588722

The rest doesn't really factor in. Call it a midlife crisis if you want - I want the X1000 instead of the Ferrari.


Not all of us are suffering from a midlife crisis, some of us don't have the time to do so.

Quote from: vidarh;588722

We can argue (based on guesses on both sides, since neither of us have any actual data) about the number of people who'll think about the X1000 like me, but that this market segment exists is clear


If it sells more than 150 units total (assuming it ever ships at all), I'll be genuinely shocked.

And before you jump on this: Consider that Aeon are struggling to even get to the stage where beta boards are being made.

Quote from: vidarh;588722

You're looking at this from a utility point of view, but utility does not govern this type of niche market.


For you. For many others they took one look at the price, one look at what it offered, compared it against the alternatives and said no. It isn't just "utility", it's that there are other, cheaper competitive options in this marketplace that are significantly better value for money.
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Offline Hammer

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #197 on: November 07, 2010, 04:28:05 AM »
Quote from: Heiroglyph;586446
As stated at AmiWest 2010, they still have no interest in x86.

I suppose selling a handful outdated slow overpriced computers somehow makes them more money than selling good software that runs on fast commodity hardware.

Greed > user experience.

Unbelievable.


From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z196_CPU

IBM has CISC z/Architecture CPU with a new superscalar, out-of-order pipeline with 5.2Ghz speeds. Like any modern X86, this IBM Z-Arch CISC CPU includes CISC-to-RISC hybrid design.
Z196 was announced on July 22, 2010.

It looks like IBM is going to fight Intel/AMD X86-64 with it's own 1970s 64bit CISC ISA CPU.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2010, 04:35:35 AM by Hammer »
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Offline ElPolloDiabl

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #198 on: November 07, 2010, 05:17:56 AM »
So IBM can actually design what they say they will as opposed to intel who lets marketing department run design?
I think the same of Motorola, they were pretty unreliable.
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Offline smerf

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #199 on: November 07, 2010, 05:41:24 AM »
Quote from: skurk;586451
The day Amiga goes x86 is the day I retire from the scene.


Hi,

We really hate to lose you, but seeing that you already made up your mind.

I believe that the only way for the Amiga to survive is to go to the dark side (intel) or what I believe would be better, the new AMD 6 core running Cloanto's package. I run it every day on my Quad core, and believe me is it nice. Once we get people used to the idea of using PC style equipment the better off we will be. PPC I don't think will make it unless the big blue machine (IBM) adapts to it and gets it selling.

Quit thinking old, and start thinking new, if you want the Amiga to survive, look at MAC they went to the dark side, look at Piru, he went with MAC. You know I should leave Piru alone, he is one of the great ones on Amiga Org. but then again, I had to get him ;-)

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Offline Hammer

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #200 on: November 07, 2010, 06:18:28 AM »
Quote from: ElPolloDiabl;590056

So IBM can actually design what they say they will as opposed to intel who lets marketing department run design?
I think the same of Motorola, they were pretty unreliable.

My point, the RISC migration adventure was a waste of time. IBM has created a 21st Century upgrade for thier 1970s Z-Arch CISC CPU.

As for Intel marketing...

Pentium IV's path was not compatible with laptop PC vs desktop PC thrends
« Last Edit: November 07, 2010, 06:26:11 AM by Hammer »
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Offline runequester

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #201 on: November 07, 2010, 06:21:18 AM »
Quote from: Hammer;590064
?? Pentium IV's ALU runs twice the marketed clock speed btw.

My point, the RISC adventure was a waste of time.

these things weren't as clear as they are in hindsight.

And well, there's a crapton of power PC processors being sold for the gaming consoles. I'd imagine more than enough to keep someone employed.

The desktop computer market isn't everything.
 

Offline Hammer

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #202 on: November 07, 2010, 06:38:01 AM »
Quote from: runequester;590065
these things weren't as clear as they are in hindsight.

And well, there's a crapton of power PC processors being sold for the gaming consoles. I'd imagine more than enough to keep someone employed.

The desktop computer market isn't everything.

Erm, IBM Z CPU is in the HPC market....

HPC market would have IBM Z (64bit CISC**) vs IBM Power(64bit RISC) vs AMD X64(64bit CISC**) vs Intel X64 (64bit CISC**). Looks like Intel Itanium (VLIW/EPIC) is dead.

**Hybrid CISC-to-RISC designs. Keep the old software and run it faster concept.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2010, 06:52:46 AM by Hammer »
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Offline HenryCase

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #203 on: November 07, 2010, 01:58:11 PM »
Quote from: the_leander;588730
The fact that when previous models of the Sam ceased production amiga resellers still had stocks of the things for months afterwards. Consider that these are limited production run machines.



In pure numbers maybe (though if I'm honest I really doubt even that). But that market is heavily segmented. You're not taking into account that a significant chunk of your "potential market" doesn't give a rats ass about OS4.

Look at the OS4 centric forums on AW.net and Amigans. These people constitute the hardcore of OS4 support and yet collectively they shat a brick when they got wind of the price.



No, it really isn't and you're completely missing the point. Yes, there is some overlap between those who want the classic kit and those who are into the NG gear. But not all. For many people they are buying that old hardware is buying back a bit of their childhood or buying addons for pre-existing classic kit.

OS4 and it's associated hardware might as well be an entirely different platform.






If the X1000 ever breaks even, by which I mean pays for its own development costs. I'll be very surprised.



Yeah except the other retro markets I see operate on a much more realistic models, sure rare original stuff sells at a premium, but "new" hardware is sold at reasonable prices. All you do when you produce a ridiculously expensive piece of kit is limit your market, in a market as small and fractious as it is for OS4, beyond a handful like you, the rest of the market leaves you for dead. See the reaction on AW.net and Amigans for details.



You may not, but it would be a mistake to presume others think like you. You want it, great.



*facepalm*





Yeah the key word in that is "hint".

Here's a clue since you seem to be new here: Hyperion lie.




Not all of us are suffering from a midlife crisis, some of us don't have the time to do so.



If it sells more than 150 units total (assuming it ever ships at all), I'll be genuinely shocked.

And before you jump on this: Consider that Aeon are struggling to even get to the stage where beta boards are being made.



For you. For many others they took one look at the price, one look at what it offered, compared it against the alternatives and said no. It isn't just "utility", it's that there are other, cheaper competitive options in this marketplace that are significantly better value for money.


Look, not everyone thinks like you. I like the X1000 because it's different from a hardware standpoint. You can't tell me I'm wrong, and just because you want a cheap and fast machine to run OS4 doesn't make other X1000 fans wrong either.
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Offline EDanaII

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #204 on: November 07, 2010, 02:05:25 PM »
Not to speak for the Leander, but... those of us who criticize the X1000 are not criticizing your choice. We're criticizing AEon/Hyperions choice to not grow the user base.

Two cents.
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Offline HenryCase

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #205 on: November 07, 2010, 02:19:28 PM »
Quote from: EDanaII;590098
Not to speak for the Leander, but... those of us who criticize the X1000 are not criticizing your choice. We're criticizing AEon/Hyperions choice to not grow the user base.

Two cents.


What would you recommend they do to increase the user base?

As far as I can see both the low end (Sam 460) and high end (X1000) are covered. Criticism over the price is noted, but the price level is mostly out of Aeon's control. If you don't want to pay that much, buy a Sam. Criticism of the price as the only factor is equivalent to an old school Amigan wondering why they can't buy an A4000 for the price of an A600.
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Offline warpdesign

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #206 on: November 07, 2010, 02:24:42 PM »
Quote from: HenryCase;590099
What would you recommend they do to increase the user base?

As far as I can see both the low end (Sam 460) and high end (X1000) are covered. Criticism over the price is noted, but the price level is mostly out of Aeon's control. If you don't want to pay that much, buy a Sam. Criticism of the price as the only factor is equivalent to an old school Amigan wondering why they can't buy an A4000 for the price of an A600.


No, it would rather be: why does the A600 costs the price of a 386, the 386 being the equivalent of the A4000 ?
 

Offline minator

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #207 on: November 07, 2010, 02:29:14 PM »
Quote
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z196_CPU

IBM has CISC z/Architecture CPU with a new superscalar, out-of-order pipeline with 5.2Ghz speeds. Like any modern X86, this IBM Z-Arch CISC CPU includes CISC-to-RISC hybrid design.
Z196 was announced on July 22, 2010.


Interesting, the previous Z11 was a pure CISC chip, this is just mostly CISC.

It can only be a matter of time before it gets merged with POWER though.


Quote
It looks like IBM is going to fight Intel/AMD X86-64 with it's own 1970s 64bit CISC ISA CPU.


No, the Z series is for mainframes only. It's exotic and highly expensive hardware and they make vast sums of money from it.

Quote
My point, the RISC migration adventure was a waste of time.


But you're saying the opposite - everyone has gone RISC internally.
Anyway, in the embedded market RISC is king and it's much, much bigger than desktop.
 

Offline EDanaII

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #208 on: November 07, 2010, 02:49:07 PM »
@ HenryCase

If you want to grow the user-base, then you have to bring the price down to a level a majority of (potential) users are willing to pay. Just because the Sam is the lower end of the price range does not mean it's the price that a majority will pay for. Bring cost of ownership down to about 300$ and I'm in -- but I suspect I'm on the lowest end. This will grow the user-base considerably. A price range of 800$ to 2000$ will not do it.

While the price level of the X1000 might be out of AEon's control, choice of hardware is not. I'm in the x86 camp and computers can be found that would bring the price down below 800$. I've also argued that "if it must be PPC, then xBox, Wii or PS3." The choice of this hardware + OS would also bring the cost down to a more reasonable range and have a better chance of growing the base.

Cold hard fact: the Amiga, despite it's superiority way back when, is a _failed_ computer. Trying to reintroduce such a machine at "caviar" prices when it has "little nutritional value" is just foolish. If you've failed in your career and are restarting it, you don't begin it again by selling yourself at the highest wage possible.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2010, 02:55:35 PM by EDanaII »
Ed.
 

Offline the_leander

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #209 on: November 07, 2010, 04:13:24 PM »
Quote from: HenryCase;590097
Look, not everyone thinks like you.


Indeed. :D

Quote from: HenryCase;590097
You can't tell me I'm wrong


Actually I can, as much as you have a right to your opinion, I have a right to mine. The fact is however, as EDanaII rightly stated, I was criticising AEON/Hyperion, not you.

Quote from: HenryCase;590097

, and just because you want a cheap and fast machine to run OS4 doesn't make other X1000 fans wrong either.


Must... Not... Bite...

As far as your question for expanding the userbase goes... Dumping AmigaNG and concentrating on the classics - cashing in on the retro crowd and neatly bypassing almost all of the bad blood within the community.

Anyway EDanaII and warpdesign pretty much have it covered as far as anything else goes on this
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