The $500 000 Question: How much is Amiga *worth*?

[redrumloa]

This conversation is getting pointless and going in circles. Some think OS design is "trivial" and that the Amiga is going to take over the world.

You can't argue with baseless enthusiasm, sorry. I've been there myself, up to about 2002. In these very forums in ~2001 Wayne scoffed at the very notion I was putting forward that the Amiga could make a serious comeback. So shocking I thought, he couldn't possibly be right. I couldn't handle that iea. Wayne was right 5 (FIVE) years ago. Nothing has changed except even the dream has faded away with a wimper. The Amiga is a historic retro computer and unless you see someone with extremely deep pockets take stupid pills, it will stay that way.

[dammy]

You can't argue with baseless enthusiasm, sorry. I've been there myself, up to about 2002. In these very forums in ~2001 Wayne scoffed at the very notion I was putting forward that the Amiga could make a serious comeback. So shocking I thought, he couldn't possibly be right. I couldn't handle that iea. Wayne was right 5 (FIVE) years ago. Nothing has changed except even the dream has faded away with a wimper. The Amiga is a historic retro computer and unless you see someone with extremely deep pockets take stupid pills, it will stay that way.

That's the reason I keep tell people to put their money where their mouth is.  They insist there is a huge market waiting to be tapped, I say go for it, spend your own money on your dream.

Dammy

[Miked]

I believe what made the Amiga such a great system back in 1985 was its innovative hardware design.  Even the early OS's were innovative as well (given the time period).  So what happened?  A hardware design that never really got the support it could have and an OS that is caught in legal compexites (i.e. OS 4.0)

It would be nice to believe that there is some hardware design in some computer engineer's home that is as innvoative as the original design was.  However, hardware aside, OS 4.0 needs to be release asap.

Imagine what could have been if Amiga (go back to Commodore) was run with focus, dedication and intelligence?  (I am refering to management)  

I really hope Bill and company can get their act together.  If not, I fear that a similiar thread might pop up on Amiga.org five years from now (with many less Amiga users).

-Miked

[Ilwrath]

@Stone-

so far all newer amiga productions has been targeted at the enthusiast market and the last remaining fans. this market is incredible small and difficult to make any profit in.

we have yet to see a product thats targeted at the mainstream market and those potential new and has-been amiga users.

This is one of the few things you've said that makes sense.  Any new product MUST reach past the existing market, as the existing market is practically nil.  As for the value of Amiga, it is in the name, and nothing more, that I can see.  (Lets face it, the OS is so long in the tooth that any effort to re-write it would be practically the same as starting from scratch.)

@stopthegop-

You're right but your analysis is again incomplete. Millions of people HAVE at least heard of the Amiga name [...]

True.  To most people (other than the 1,000 or so users scattered between here, aw.n, moob, eab, etc.) the Amiga name carries a slight positive recognition.  Not much, but having a new product starting out with a slight positive affinity never hurts.  

and, if given a reason to do so --via marketing-- would spend money on it.  A differentiated, unique and inspiring product would also help.

I disagree.  The advantage would be needing to do less new marketing to reach the same point of sales.  

I could see a company that has some cheap Taiwanese manufacturing capabilities snatching the Amiga name for a cool million, throwing it on a cheap media player of some type, and hoping for 15-20% market share against the iPod video/iRiver/Creative Zen types.  Of course, that manufacturer likely wouldn't even catch the irony in the fact that they didn't bother to include the ability to play back a .anim or display an .iff.  :lol:

[sdyates]

Well, how much capital would be required to develop and support hardware?

I personally think US$500,000 is a small amount considering the market sector for hardware and the barriers to entry.

my two cents

It almost sounds canadian the way some talk about Amiga Inc. I personally want to see them succeed as we will all succeed. We have a 12-14 year old technology, we aren't going to find too many out there to commit to our technology: let's work with who we have.

[stopthegop]

That's the reason I keep tell people to put their money where their mouth is.

I know I have.  2 A1200s, one in a tower with PPC and mediator, another w/ stock case with a P5 1260 and BvisionPPC.  And one totally loaded A4000T with every conceivable upgrade you can imagine.  No warez, all legit software.  Almost all of it I bought new from Dealers.  

If when you say "put your money where your mouth is" you mean toward actually buying Amiga Inc. and starting work on a new hardware design?  For one thing, I don't think its even officially for sale, which makes this whole discussion kind of polymical, doesn't it?  Secondly, I really wish I had that kind of money because if I did, I would.

[neon32]

But it's not really 12-14 year old technology. In my opinion it's only been since windows 2000 that even microsoft have really made any worthy progress beyond what Amiga OS offers as standard to the average user.

[stopthegop]

Thats certainly true.

[redrumloa]

@dammy

I hear you, been there myself.

[jarrody2k]

stopthegop wrote:
The marketing is easy.  Hire the experts.  Bill Gates, more than anyone else in history, has demonstrated the power of good advertising.  Marketing is best left to the professionals.  Regardless of what it costs, a good marketing strategy is worth it.  Sign up for the old platinum account at Ogilvy & Mather (or other top firm) shovel a truckload of cash into a "flood the airwaves" style marketing campaign, and you're set.  You could be peddling total garbage (Like Gates) and it would still reap 7 figure sales.  The public (especially American) have proved this time and again.  

Now this is what people seem to miss.  And its mainly the purists who see Amiga as OS4.  With enough funding trash can turn into treasure and sure as hell Amiga is looking trashy right now.

With fresh marketing, a new box and perhaps only backed up by a simple idea that, perhaps doesn't even do something new, but perhaps makes something easier, you'll see it snapped up and incorporated into lives like the DVD player or iPod.  It all smells a little bit like convergence... but lets face it, iPod are making loads of cash out of what once sounded like one of the biggest cons of the IT boom.  (iPod = the portable storage, music player, movie player, podcasts, photo album... mobiles = voice, video, camera, GPS etc.)

A company with a fresh idea, coupled with an inhouse scalable operating system plus links with hardware companies who can build systems for you... you could manufacture and deploy a new device with reduced licensing cost.  Its the perfect springboard.  Is this what Bill McEwen is trying to shape?

You ask on what hardware a new Amiga might run?  I myself favor completely redesigned hardware made to look and "feel" like a classic Amiga -- not some stock, "me too" vanilla PPC board with an "Amiga" bios.  A radical new design, something totally outside the box -- so much so that the it would be impossible for the inbread technology press to ignore it.

A flashy design saving an embattled brand of computing.  Can you say Apple?

Jarrod.

[jarrody2k]

recidivist wrote:
   4. Have a bunch of people with no access to relevant  information engage in wild speculative arguments.Ignore them.

I'm sorry recidivist, but you seem to imply that speculation is idiotic.  But really, if all we had to hear all day was science fact, we'd be bored out of our brains and the tabloids would be out of business and Amiga.orgs postings would reduce to half (though this is a speculative and contentious argument also)

(start off topic philosophical rant)
Hell, we all die anyway and all our accumulated knowledge (at least to my knowledge anyway) will likely cease to exist simultaneously.  In this knowledge perhaps we should just end it all now and avoid the redundancy?
(finish off topic philosophical rant)

But again, what fun is that?

Jarrod.

[stopthegop]

A flashy design saving an embattled brand of computing. Can you say Apple?

I want a computer not mother-in-law in a box.  Sorry, I'm just not into that scene at all.  I think Apple has nothing but contempt for its users, frankly.  I have some family members who are recovering Mac users.  Not sure what they have now..  Anyway, I digress..

I'm with you on the philosophy bit..  

[jarrody2k]

stopthegop wrote:
I want a computer not mother-in-law in a box.  Sorry, I'm just not into that scene at all.  I think Apple has nothing but contempt for its users, frankly.  I have some family members who are recovering Mac users.  Not sure what they have now..  Anyway, I digress..

It's not what I would want either.  But, money is money.  We are talking about an asking price of 'Amiga'. Anything that would improve the marketability of Amiga technologies would be a key to a greater worth.

And if Bill McEwen would even bother spending his life energy on promoting the 'Amiga' then he *must believe* he has something worth... not thousands, not hundreds of thousands, but millions!

I guess I just wanted some lateral thinking and creativity as to what he has conceptualised in that noggin' of his as to how his company could be more valuable than the average Amiga user thinks it is.

Answers seemed to be heavily focused on the current state of AmigaOS4 or the yet forthcoming OS5... not how he could sell these developing technologies in a way that is bigger.

He may have just what we see or perhaps there is something more up his sleeve... either way, good luck to ol' Bill.

Long live entrepreneurialism and foolhardiness!

Jarrod.

[recidivist]

stopthegop wrote:

There are some established methods of determining value:

1. Let the tax assessors do it,and appeal if not happy.


2. Offer the item/company at auction.


3. Hire professional appraisers familiar with the market.Complain if their judgment differs from yours.


4. Have a bunch of people with no access to relevant information engage in wild speculative arguments.Ignore them.  

What if a person in category 4 has several years of professional experience pertaining to the professions listed in categories 1-3?  

 I fail to see how expertise can make up for the lack of information.Do you KNOW how much Amiga,Inc. paid for the OS writing contracts or the contract terms,or what debts otherwise exist,or any other private information/See a privately held company can keep information to themselves.
I have seen several large building contactors whom everyone thought were riding high turn out to be extremely bankrupt. Their  whole operations turned ought to be really leveraged with Other People's Money. REALLY OPM,that they had no right to use.Some of the officials are doing prison time now.
NOT implying Amiga,Inc is in that position,but without information even experts can only make a W.A.G.

[stopthegop]

I fail to see how expertise can make up for the lack of information.Do you KNOW how much Amiga,Inc. paid for the OS writing contracts or the contract terms,or what debts otherwise exist,or any other private information/See a privately held company can keep information to themselves.
I have seen several large building contactors whom everyone thought were riding high turn out to be extremely bankrupt. Their whole operations turned ought to be really leveraged with Other People's Money. REALLY OPM,that they had no right to use.Some of the officials are doing prison time now.
NOT implying Amiga,Inc is in that position,but without information even experts can only make a W.A.G.

This is all in the realm of hypothetical anyway; chill.   Like you said, lots of variables we just don't know about.  The whole discussion is based on "what-ifs", things we don't know and can't predict.  The only real constant I think is that all of us would like to see new, futuristic, differentiated Amiga hardware.  Or maybe we don't all share that desire, dunno..?  Either way, I think discussions such as this are a healthy way of examining the myriad of possible contingencies.  A way of predicting the future by a series of educated guesses.  I see it as a way to identify possible failures, hopefully with enough foresight to preempt them.      

[deBrun]

I think Amiga could come back like Apple has if they get the money and brains to market/advertise (whatever they choose) with unwavering dedication, determination and grit (you know like a pitbull latches onto a steak type attitude)

Like for instance:

I wonder why this video/similar isn't EVERYWHERE?

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4041270341638854546&q=amiga+os&hl=en

Stuff like the above should be an embedded vid on websites.  Its easy and cheap. Before some of you say poo, remember its the hustle that counts & I think that's how MS won in the first  place (sure as hell wasn't their product...)