Earth impactor?

[blobrana]

Hum,
I `ve been following the progress of a recently rediscovered 500-meter Near-Earth Asteroid called 2004 MN4, that is predicted to pass very close to the Earth on 13 April 2029.
 The flyby distance is uncertain and an Earth impact cannot yet be ruled out.
The odds of a collision have been updated (24 th Dec) to 60 to 1, a five-fold improvement from the first calculated probability. This corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale.
These odds are likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data are received. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked. (hopefully).

more info

Er, merry Xmas all!

[Wilse]

Scary stuff!

Oh and Merry Christmas Blobrana. I'm raising my Isle of Jura glass in your direction. :pint:

[blobrana]

:pint:
(need to save some for new year, though)



hum,
 updated on December 25 to 1 in 43.
This may turn out to be a very unlucky Friday the 13th, er, or not...


< added >

 updated on December 27 to 1 in 37.

And the final score on the 28th Dec. is that the 75 million tonnes of rock will miss us completely (er, well at least until 2037) - and there will not be a 1400 mega tonne nasty surprise on that day.... :-)

< /added >

[JaXanim]

It seems 2004 MN4 will definitely NOT collide with us or the moon in 2029.

Apparently, the Spacewatch Observatory near Tucson has located archival images of the asteroid from March 15 this year. That's allowed a more detailed trajectory to be calculated.

The Near Earth Object Program Office at JPL has now ruled out the possiblity of an Earth impact in 2029.

JaX

[Speelgoedmannetje]

blobrana wrote:
The odds of a collision have been updated (24 th Dec) to 60 to 1, a five-fold improvement from the first calculated probability.

Probability? How do they calculate this? :-?

[blobrana]

Hum,
There is a degree of error in every observation. And the original observations were only over a few days. In addition, there are various unknowns such as out gassings, and gravitational perturbations from other bodies that may add to the final risk assessment.

However, with 170 observations spanning 6 months (due to prediscovery photos taken in March 2004) the probability was narrowed down to 1 in 55,556 - so the risk is still there.

But as i said before that is only before 2037, eventually sometime the two orbits will intersect.