Amiga.org 4th June 2013
What if? 1990, Amiga games selling for $5.99. Piracy?
There would be a little bit less but the loss of profits would be huge. This would've had the largest negative impact on the Amiga software ecosystem.
Factors:
Most of the piracy occurred in developing nations, i.e. where even $5.99 constituted a day's wage for the middle classes. This is the same reason there is even piracy for iOS apps today.
In the '80s the largest consumer base for games were adolescents, and this was considered the target market by most publishers. The problem is that adolescents do not have much income, though what they have is considered as entirely disposable. Parents were buying the games and market models would have suggested 0.5 to 1 game title per month. So if the average teen wanted to play more than the games their parents bought them they would turn to other methods. This kind of piracy exists even today in the developed nations.
Until only recently all publishers, be it books, games, music, movies, operated on a 'hits and misses' model, where the profits from the 'hits' pay for the losses of the 'misses'. Predicting market success is not an exact science, there are just too many moving parts. Apart from a few new direct publishing models, most publishers today still operate on hits and misses.
It's not just about making money, it's about making the right amount of money. Too many times in history a product has been withdrawn from the market not because they were losing money but because they weren't making enough money. At $5.99 or even $9.99 the games would have reached a larger audience but would not make enough money to make the business sustainable. This dynamic prevails in mass markets. It's the reason a network will buy a non-scripted (reality) TV show vs a scripted show. Cheaper and attracts more viewers. The scripted show would turn a profit, but less than the non-scripted show.
The Marketing Problem:
The Amiga was the ubiquitous computing machine. Amiga's "chameleon" quality made it difficult for third parties to market for. 1 million Amigas in the market does not equal 1 million gamers. Commodore had extremely poor market stats on usage types; video vs. audio vs. games vs. CAD/CAM vs. office vs. DTP vs. other. They were in the 'moving units' business. Ecosystem support? Bah!
The Amiga was doomed by being a '90s machine born in the '80s and (mis)managed by a company that operated like it was the '70s.