My old 486 @ 66 MHz could do it with halved quality, so it should do fine on an overclocked 040, or a 060.
PC Gfx cards have done hardware decoding of MPEG for many years now, it's faster on the 486 because the 486 isn't doing the decoding.
This works on Windows but not all other OSs have drivers for the hardware.
If it's running another OS, playing an MPEG movie on my Athlon (800MHz) will eat most of the CPU power - thats how compute intensive MPEGs are.
BTW, did you know that AMD's 486-DX4s performed better per cycle, than the early P4s?
Not at all, the P4 is a very inefficient processor, if you clock it the same as other x86s (P3, K7) the P4 comes out 25-30% slower than the others.