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Author Topic: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86  (Read 43501 times)

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Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« on: October 25, 2010, 12:52:45 PM »
Quote from: wawrzon;586772
and what does it reveal about them in your opinion?
me, if i was still slightly interested i would be really cautious now.


It tells me they are aware of the Osborne effect, and knows that talking about future hardware/support while trying to sell the "current generation" is a sure-fire way to bankruptcy.
 

Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2010, 01:12:41 PM »
Quote from: haywirepc;586871

For 2000-3000$, I can build a 16 core x86 beast that would absolutely
smoke anything the x1000 can do. Kinda hard to decide instead, I'm
going to buy a 2ghz ppc with amiga os, oh and only one core will
be useable by my os... ? They are joking right?


You miss the point. Nobody buys Amiga/AmigaOne for the performance anymore. Nobody. And from a e/perormance point of view, even picking up classics or Minimigs or buying accelerators off Ebay etc. would be lunacy.

The X1000 is not competing with PC's on price. They are not expecting to take people who worry about the performance. They want to deliver "fast enough" for people to justify buying an experience.

As an example, my current laptop cost about 1/3 of my wifes Macbook. They have the *exact same CPU*. Mine has more memory and a bigger disk. None of them are particularly fast, but they are fast enough we could both easily do with a slower machine if we had to. People buy into the Apple experience.

First of all, there's a substantial subset of Hyperions and Aeons potential customers that really, really don't want x86 for whatever reasons. Secondly, there's a group of people like me, that, if the X1000 was just another x86 box would need something exceptional to consider it, but that are willing and able to pay a substantial premium for something that is *different*. The combination of PPC and OS4 makes it fit the bill nicely.

People spend money on things because they are different all the time. I spent as much on my Minimig as I did for my laptop, despite how much less capable the Minimig is (my laptop can easily outperform it with UAE in far better screen modes, for example, and it has HDMI output). Because it was fun and different.

The second core thing is annoying, but irrelevant: This model would be mostly as appealing with a single core, but going dual core makes very little difference in price these days and creates the expectation that "soon" we'll see support for it, and hence make the machine faster for people. And at least some users will be interested in running Linux on it too.

If this was intended to be a mass market product competing on price/performance, you'd be right. As it stands, they are competing only for a very small, very specific segment of people for whom price/performance is not going to be the primary consideration. Time will tell whether that market segment is big enough to bring them enough of a profit to survive, and hopefully to be able to aim bigger next time.
 

Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2010, 10:43:11 PM »
Quote from: persia;586955
@vidarh

But the real question is how many people would be using OS 4 if they ported it to X86, not that people are willing to pay a hefty premium to run it on X1000.  If Hyperion sold OS 4 for say €100 or €150 and you could run it on a certain proportion of standard equipment or VirtualBox, I would have plunked down the cash six months ago.  I'm sure there are others who feel the same.


I'm sure some do feel the same, but they'd be targeting the subset of users who a) want an Amiga experience on x86, are b) prepared to pay, c) not happy with AROS or UAE, d) ok with an OS4 version that throws out all the current PPC software (or they'd have to deal with slow PPC on x86 emulation). I don't think the intersection of all of those adds up to many users - perhaps not even enough to cover the cost of a port.
 

Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2010, 09:43:45 AM »
Quote from: takemehomegrandma;587315
If *only* 275 people bothered to answer to a poll (which most people in Amiga-land do just for political reasons, to make a statement, or to show some support, or numerous other "false" reasons), something that is close to effortless and completely free of charge, then I think it would actually be *optimistic* to think that as many as half of those will actually follow through in real life.


Meanwhile, in the real world, the idea that all potential customers would ever vote in a poll on a forum is considered ridiculous, and any sales or marketing guy would expect sales to far outstrip any results you'd get on a poll like that.

Even the idea that all potential customers are even reading a specific website - even in a small market like the Amiga market - is patently ridiculous.
 

Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2010, 09:58:13 AM »
Quote from: paolone;587231
Gosh, if the 25:5:1 market theory I've read about longa ago (*) is somehow good and applicable, it would mean that 130 sales would be optimistic.

(*) Many years ago I read a book about product marketing (sorry, forgot title and author), and the 25:5:1 theory states that on 25 people you'll contact, 5 will show interest in your product and 1 will actually buy it. This basically means that on 275 people "willing" to buy a X1000, well... just 55 actually will.

I sincerely hope for A-Eon they will be more, many more...


You are "abusing" that ratio wildly. What those kind of ratios refers to is not self reported data on a website, but active sales.

E.g. if *you* go out and call 25 people, only 5 will be interested and 1 of those will buy, so you need to go out and actually contact 25 times as many people as you hope will buy. The ratios are also by no means set in stone - they are examples. Some products do much better, some much worse. I've done sales. I've seen those ratios.

For starters, you can't know where on that axis those 275 people fall, and you have no basis for assuming that those 275 people are the only ones interested. In fact, there is every reason to assume that since the 275 are self-selected from readers of a website, the actual number of interested people is much, much higher, even before any sales/marketing effort to contact more people. Again, I've done sales and I've done polls to determine interests, and I've seen how wildly poll numbers usually differs from reality.
 

Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2010, 12:20:24 AM »
Quote from: takemehomegrandma;587939
Meanwhile, in the real world, the idea that actually anyone else outside the very small and tight amigaworld.net/amigans.net circle *would even consider* chipping up a staggering UKP 1,500++/USD 2,400++/EUR 1,700++ (ANYONE AT ALL!!) for this kind of unproven, 2007 level performance HW, that has no other benefit than being able to run a "gimmick" (to anyone else but the above mentioned tight circle) OS4, is nothing short of ridiculous. "Hmm, what to do, take my entire family on a nice vacation next summer, or buy this 2007 level computing technology so I can see what this gimmick thing called 'OS4' is about, at the same cost? Hmm, difficult choice..."


Most people who had Amiga's as their first/second home computer as kids or teenagers are now in their 30's/40's, and thus many of us have a fairly high disposable income, and have no problem paying fairly steep amounts for our hobbies.

Some people blow GBP 15k-20k on a sports car, others spend 1,500++ on a niche computer or five. I've already spend a 200-300 or so on a Minimig, plan to buy an FPGA Arcade and a Natami, and yes, an X1000 too, and I'm considering buying a classic.  Note that this is despite having several x86 boxes, both servers and laptops, and contributing to AROS.

As of this January, I'd been away from the community for about 12 years. I came back because of the X1000.

I think you seriously underestimate the value of nostalgia and of community and what people are willing (and able) to pay for it.

Yes, the X1000 will never be a mass market product. Besides the point. It also will likely do better than a lot of naysayers are assuming. As others have pointed out, the prices for Amiga-related hardware demonstrates that this community has a lot of money. Since few people use these machines as their only or even primary computer, capabilities and performance is secondary to other aspects, and price too is down to whether or not we can afford it, not so much whether or not it's cost effective.
 

Offline vidarh

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Re: Ben Hermans still staunchly against x86
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2010, 11:22:28 AM »
Quote from: the_leander;588641
And your evidence for this lies in what? Not to get off on a rant here, but Aeon are a completely untested and unknown quantity. You have the Sam which is a great deal more reasonable on the wallet and sales for it have pretty much dried up - practically everyone who wanted one has one.


And your evidence for this lies in what? :-P

We have to accept that we're all mostly in the dark and trying to make educated guesses here, which means we're unlikely to agree, and asking for evidence either way is meaningless...

With respect to the SAM, I'd argue that the coming 460 is a good indication that sales are going reasonably well, or they'd hardly invest in a new model, especially with the upcoming competition. But that too is a guess.

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The X1000 is competing against the Sam in terms of AmigaNG-OS4 and against old mac gear for MorphOS. If your kick is nostalgia then it's competing against UAE, Minimig and classic hardware. It is entering a relatively small market from the top end, which is itself limiting.


The price is limiting, but it is also the first new computer to run AmigaOS that's powerful to entice people like me back to this community, even if it's slow when compared to x86 machines. I'm by far not the only one who have come back to Amiga forums as a result of wanting to buy the X1000. So while the market is limited, the X1000 is showing signs of at least attracting *some* people outside of the current market.

That, to me, indicates that while they're certainly not going to sell bundles, they might have hit a sweet spot in terms of maximizing revenue, which is far more important than maximizing number of units if A-Eon is going to become a viable business (even as Trevor Dickinson's "hobby")

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You may well be well off, but many/most people aren't, especially with the credit crunch in full swing. Your line of reasoning might well work for you but I just can't see it translating to anyone who isn't pretty well off.


I'm not arguing that everyone will be able to afford it, because clearly there will be people that can't. I'm arguing that this community has enough people with cash to spare, and that the amounts of money being spent on old and slow hardware is a pretty good indication of the amounts of cash people can be prepared to spend on hobbies like these, with no concern for the actual performance or "utility" of the system. People have far more expensive hobbies with far less utility.

In previous threads I've pointed out that from a financial point of view for AEon, the high price point is also not a bad thing per se in a market like this when they're the only alternative for someone wanting a "high end" Amiga.

There's substantial price flexibility in niche markets that you don't find in more competitive markets. Sales will be smaller at, say, 1500GBP than at 1000GBP or 500GBP, for sure, but probably not enough to make up for the difference in percentage margin they'd be able to "hide" in the higher price, so I'd argue they're better off aiming for the high end, both because there's at least some signs they're attracting people that wouldn't otherwise consider an AmigaOS machine, and because they might be able to survive on far lower total sales (in pounds/euros, not just units) and that the price elasticity in this market is so big that sales are not likely to fall off in proportion to the price increasing.

Of course, this is guesswork, but it is guesswork that has some basis in how niche markets actually work: They *do* generally have far higher price elasticity; they *do* tend to see a lot less focus on hard numbers and price/performance compared to other factors (people who care mostly about price/performance generally go for the mainstream products instead)

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 Cost comes high, but even if you could afford it you are still going to be asking some pretty hard questions about what the hardware is going to offer you against the alternatives I've listed.


No, I'm not. It's the first computer to run AmigaOS4 that's feels like it'll be "fast enough" for me to give it serious use. It's passing a threshold. That's enough.

The XMOS chip and the recent hint that it might be possible for them to get Linux running in parallel with AOS4 on the second core are interesting bonuses that rise the geek appeal, but not necessary. The rest doesn't really factor in. Call it a midlife crisis if you want - I want the X1000 instead of the Ferrari.

We can argue (based on guesses on both sides, since neither of us have any actual data) about the number of people who'll think about the X1000 like me, but that this market segment exists is clear (I'm proof, for starters, though I'm afraid my pockets aren't deep enough to carry the X1000 on my own :-P )

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 Capabilities and performance most definitely feature heavily into any equation that is as highly priced as the X1000 promises to be.


You're looking at this from a utility point of view, but utility does not govern this type of niche market.

If I cared about capabilities and performance, I could get an Intel Core i7 Quad core 3.2GHz based machine with 12GB memory and a GeForce GTX480 with 1.5GB memory and a 2TB harddrive for the same price, that would wipe the floor with the X1000. Or I could wipe the floor with it with a cheaper machine and have enough money left over for a weekend in a good hotel.

But I have my other computers for the performance. The X1000 and other Amiga-related kit I plan to buy is for fun. I value fun far higher than performance I don't need.