AROS has had almost no exposure and hasn't reached a 1.0 release yet. I wouldn't consider it a litmus test for the possible success of x86 AOS.
I would. AROS has shader support under Mesa using NVidia graphics cards using the Nouveau drivers under Gallium3D. AmigaOS 4.x doesn't support shaders at all and MiniGL is based on Warp3D which is not capable of shaders at this time.
On the other hand, the 1.0 release of AROS ABIs are expected in a few months and will prompt recompilation of all the apps due to incompatibility with AmigaOS 3.1 sources.