Amount of MorphOS copies sold

[HenryCase]

MorphOS probably has 2x the amount of AROS and OS4 users combined (and I'm not saying that this graph reflects the amount of users, only registrations *sold*).

This sounds more like wishful thinking on your part than anything based in reality.

Let's remind ourselves of what your graph represents; it shows serial numbers registered for MorphOS 2.x. For every computer you want to run MorphOS 2.x on, you need a new serial number. Let's imagine someone who was a MorphOS 2.x fan from the start. First, they may have registered a copy of MorphOS 2.x to run on a Pegasos 2. Next, when the Mac Mini release came out, they would have bought another serial for that machine. That's two licenses for one user, and there are probably users who have 3+ licenses. Please note that the licenses are not transferrable, so even if this user didn't use their Pegasos 2 anymore, they wouldn't be able to transfer the license to a new machine.

Using registrations sold as a metric to gauge number of users is not going to be accurate, yet you've used these figures to state MorphOS has '2x the amount of AROS and OS4 users combined'. This is all without understanding how many users AROS and OS4 have. If you're going to make statements like that, you should at least have some understanding about the situation as it stands.

Apart from this, we're still talking small numbers. If you want some platform growth worth talking about, then look to ways we can work together to build a compelling platform, not compete over the small number of users left in the Amiga community.

[HenryCase]

And you must remember that MorphOS is perfectly usable (without any limitations whatsoever) without a registration, at least for 30 minutes at a time...

I do not doubt that there are some people who have sampled MorphOS 2.x without paying for it, but you should be careful with making too much of this, as you are likely to undo your own argument. For example, if we class 'OS samplers' as users, then think about what this means for AROS. It's possible to try it out in a VM without too much hassle, which many people have done (not just across the whole Amiga community, but those interested in alternative OS too). Furthermore, AROS is now included in WinUAE, and there will come a time where it'll be bundled with all versions of UAE. Simply put, MorphOS hasn't got a hope in hell of competing with the numbers of people who use UAE, not in its current state anyway, so I wouldn't make too much of the '30 minutes at a time' users.

There seems to be some sort of general consensus that "a fair number of users" would currently be obtained by dividing the registrations with 2, and I agree, I think it's a fair assumption. This would give around 700 MorphOS users, which is a pretty decent number actually!

Okay, let's say for argument's sake that there are 700 people who have at least one registered copy of MorphOS. I still think this is somewhat optimistic, but let's use this figure for now...

I *sincerely doubt* that any active OS4 user haven't downloaded this piece of software by now

Then your sincere doubts have done you a disservice. Not every OS4 user can run Timberwolf, and I've heard accounts of OS4 users saying they're not going to bother with it until it's more mature.

I don't want to belittle AROS in any way, but MorphOS and OS4 plays in a completely different league.

I am under no illusions that AROS has fewer regular users than OS4 and MorphOS, but that doesn't concern me, the momentum for AROS continues to build, it's not a question of 'if' it'll catch up/overtake the other two, but 'when'.

About 700 active MorphOS users would mean 2x the amount of about 300 active OS4 users coupled with some 50 active AROS users.

But again, your guess is as good as mine...

That's your guess. Okay. Let's look at it another way. How active are the following forums:
http://www.amigans.net/
http://www.morphzone.org/modules/news/
http://aros-exec.org/

At the time of writing, 7 topics on amigans.net had posts from 'Today', 2 topics from morphzone.org had posts from '11-03-2012' (today's date), and 9 topics from aros-exec.org had posts from 'Today'. Your definition of active users may be different from mine, but seems unlikely to me that MorphOS users are that much quieter/less opinionated than OS4 and AROS users, seems much more likely to me that there are just fewer users who are actively involved with MorphOS. YMMV.

[HenryCase]

Oh wait...maybe that was your point.

My point was that if takemehomegrandma's assumption about MorphOS having double the number of active users was correct, it would be reasonable to assume that you'd see more discussion surrounding it (not necessarily double, but something close to it). I'm aware there are cross-platform sites, but the vast majority of discussion about usage of MorphOS isn't found here, it's found on morphzone.org.

So the question becomes, if you do have double the users, why are there fewer discussions surrounding it? Seems to me we have a different definition about what 'active' users means.

[HenryCase]

I'm sorry, but that's bollocks. I don't deny that there might exist one or two OS4 users who won't bother (for whatever reason), but not very many on top of that.

Again, you base this on what?  Let's look at the download numbers for mui-owb:
http://os4depot.net/index.php?function=showfile&file=network/browser/muiowb.lha
1320 downloads, and this is downloads for a single version, no upgrades. Let's use your 'divide by 2' method to take into account the multi-system users, which gives us 660. Bit different from your 300 users estimate eh.

...but I sincerely doubt that however. There is nothing that speaks in favor of that.

Okay, let's compare the development activity that's happened for MorphOS and AROS over the last 2 years. How has MorphOS developed in this time, what features has it gained or refined?

I'm sorry, but that's a terrible instrument of measurement, utterly useless, it's impossible draw one single conclusion from that.

It's interesting that you dismiss one way to analyse active users, but cling onto others when it fits in with your world view (MorphOS registrations and Timberwolf downloads). Here's a challenge for you, find me all the MorphOS discussions on amiga.org and amigaworld.net for last week, and I'll do the same for OS4, I guarantee you that the MorphOS discussions will be less frequent.

[HenryCase]

I'm not dismissing what you have to say, but TMHG's last paragraph, imo, is entirely valid.
When you take into account mailing lists, public irc channels (where you -can- sense activity), private irc channels (where you can not unless you are invited), private irc conversations between 2 individuals...it all adds up.
Analyzing the true activity is also subjective as well. If a private channel is discussing sports vs discussing their operating system of choice, then is it "active"?. Heh.

#6

AROS has mailing lists, IRC channels, etc... as does OS4 (perhaps less so with the mailing lists). Forum activity represent a fraction of the total discussions, I agree with that, but they can still illuminate the general trend for activity. MorphOS has a nice advantage in that the cost to start using it is cheaper than OS4, which of course helps with impulse purchases, but how many of those impulse purchasers then use it regularly. That seems to be a valid question to make if we're talking about 'active' users rather than just 'users' in a looser sense.

[HenryCase]

All I'm getting at with this comment is that there are other factors like the above, which I believe lead people to choose where to be active.

#6

number6, I agree that discussion happens most freely in places that already have an active userbase. However, Amiga users from all camps are registered on the long established Amiga forums, and each have at least some semblance of regular activity.

My gripe was with the assumption that there are 2x the number of MorphOS users compared to OS4 and AROS combined. Should that be true, even if only a half of all MorphOS users used forums to communicate, we'd see equal levels of discussion. Since that's not the case, one of the following statements is true:

1. Less than half of all MorphOS users are regular forum users.
2. MorphOS doesn't have double the number of users after all.

I hope this makes sense.

[HenryCase]

I do not think that this discussion makes much sense because all camps are too small now and we should think about how to attract new users/developers and not who is the biggest between the three "dwarfes".

Bingo! I'm glad someone else understands.

[HenryCase]

No, sorry, still doesn't compute the way you wants; you are talking about aggregate statistics from a 6+ months period of time, during which many re-installations took place (OS4.1.3 did cause *major* problems for many users, of which many have more than one system, and many users probably made a clean re-install after the OS4.1.4 release as well, which *also* happened during this time).

Again, how do you know? You're trying make big assumptions based on very little information.

Because it's *not* a way of analyzing active users. You could as well go out counting the blades of grass in your front lawn, and use that as a base for your assumptions.

So it's not an accurate way to analyse active users, yet the number of MorphOS serial key registrations is? Tell you what, go back to whomever handles the MorphOS registrations and ask them how many serial keys have been sent out through unique email addresses. That would let you improve the accuracy of your information.

Look, it's obvious that the possibility of MorphOS having more users than OS4 is very sensitive/emotional for you. But please don't be naive.

Doesn't bother me bub, I'm an AROS guy. What does bother me is your willingness to make bold claims without solid information to back it up. Hopefully you'll think twice next time.

Now, regardless of the numbers of users each platform has, we'd like to see those numbers increase, yes? So how about we put aside competing over small fry, and work together on going for the big fish. A rising tide lifts all boats, and all that.

[HenryCase]

But I wouldnt claim MorphOS has more users than AROS and SO4 in total. It is completely wrong and also irrelevant when number of users is counted in hundreds.

Exactly.

[HenryCase]

Both 1 and 2 are true.

What I was really saying before is that at least one of those two statements was true, which doesn't exclude the possibility that they're both true.

In fact I know certain user on #amigaworld who is using MorphOS only since he sold all his OS4 machines. However he only posts about OS4, posts OS4 videos, promotes OS4 on every chance. He never asks anything about MorphOS nor posts about it.

I find that interesting, and wonder why someone would do that, I can only guess such behaviour is rare.

[HenryCase]

I pointed out how it very much *can* be so, based on recent statistics, while repeatedly stating that it in no way could be considered as facts.

This is the crux of the problem. Using a phrase Carl Sagan helped popularise; "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". The general opinion regarding numbers of OS4 and MorphOS users is that they are roughly equal. If you make a claim which greatly contradicts the generally held view, there better be some substance behind your claims as you can expect people to question them. Making bold statements, then saying they're not based on facts, does not cut it.

Hope you understand why I got annoyed at you now. Can we please move on and talk about how to grow our platforms? I would like to see MorphOS get more users, there's really no need to have an aggressive stance against each other here. The true answer about how many MorphOS users there are is 'not enough', or at least not enough for long term growth. Let's work on fixing that.

[HenryCase]

@takemehomegrandma
You believe MorphOS is doing great. Good for you. You totally missed my point, but keep on doing what you do anyway.

[HenryCase]

No, I don't think ~700 users is great in any way, nowhere did I say that.

This would give around 700 MorphOS users, which is a pretty decent number actually!

Doesn't matter anyway, you're not listening, so let's just save our time and stop talking about this, yeah?

[HenryCase]

I've been listening to you the whole day. I don't agree however.

Okay, if you've been listening, what do you think the main point I'm trying to make is? I'll give you a hint, it's nothing to do with forum visitors.

[HenryCase]

@hooligan

Morphzone is clearly a technical forum, we don't have silly threads whether to vote for pancakes or not. Certainly not suitable to use as a measurestick for any kind of guess how active MorphOS users are.

Oh sure, morphzone.org is full of productive threads, like a 28 page thread slagging off the X1000. Yes, you're all so superior...

@Duce
You're right.