I agree in some parts to this article -
The Internets future lies in 'Nano-Apps' - auto downloaded along with the media, doesn't require installation and just does one job - show/play the media. The nano-app will work as a plugin into the operating system and seem like a seamless part of it. of course the O/S needs something akin to the java runtime, but as long as it's part of the o/s to start with, compatabilty wouldn't be an issue.
Just my 2 bits.
- Jar.