I would like to write this very long answer on this one, attacking the problem from various angles and who knows what.
But... thing is... no matter how pathetic it may sound... I think that the main reason to why things have seemed to come to a halt... it that computing have gotten mainstream.
Today when, like, 95% of the world is running Windows, they simply feel perfectly happy with that. They do get scared when having to update to a new OS, or even a new version of Windows (which also could be the reason of updating the OS is becoming more and more autmated). The more mainstream, the less innovation. I do believe it could be as simple as that, if stripping away all the two million arguments that it simply can't be that easy... that there's fourteen million other aspects that has to be taken into consideration. Well, so it may be then.
So... will we have to wait another 10 years? Well, I think we could have to wait longer than that... just look at how long it took for the television to evolve into something better, once it had gotten mainstream. And what do we get? Flat screens which, no matter how you look at it, will bring problems with pixel aspect ratio and too visible MPEG compression into each and everyones home (at least here in Sweden where most of the digitally sent channels look like pure crap as soon as too much is starting to happen on the screen), people looking at 4:3 sent video signals in 16:9 format... and, god knows what. People in general don't care about quality. They buy what they is led to believe is quality... and every now and then things that in reality could be considered as 'worse' get the people vote as being the 'best' and voilá... there is no turning back. Because yet another change, that would simply be too much to handle.
I'm personally getting really tired of the constant pressure of having to 'update' this or that. I'm bothered by the fact that people with money is doing all they can to make way for the next CD-format... with the main argument that more is better. I'm tired of having to deal with people selling hardware and software they know nothing about (just having had a crash course in how to sell stuff to people). Well, what do you know...
It feels like a fresh breeze seeing Nintendo trying to change the way we LOOK at, and PLAY games. Instead of putting a better graphics chip and a faster processor, inside the console just to be able to play FIFA 2009 or Ridge Racer 152 with even more realistic graphics. I just wish that something similar soon will happen with computing and the OS'es we use on a daily basis. Vista just feels like WindowsXP Ultra Mega Deluxe. Not 'the next step'.
So, to answer another one of your questions... I don't have the slightest clue what 'the next step' will be until I see it. Like the majority of the computer using people out there. Just like I had no clue that Nintendo, with Wii, would hit the spot and within a matter of seconds convince me that what they will offer in the near future is the future of gaming.
The only thing I have a clue about is that the way things look and feel today, when I'm toying around with my computers, is not in any way nearly as fun as it was some ten years ago. I do it because I have to. Not because I want to. And everything else I have mentioned, concerning people in general, just adds to the 'have to' side of computer use.
The day when someone presents a way of dealing with the computer in a way that seems attractive to me. Well, then I will know...
