I read most of the MONO/dotNET posts, so here is my 2 cents;
It could go in its own direction, but that would be counter-productive unless its adoption starts to rival that of the Microsoft original.
The Ximian connection comes from the fact that they were instrumental in starting the MONO project, long before Novell entered they picture.
Toying with MONO (or dotGNU as it will be known) is playing a very dangerous game. Microsoft has shown time and time again that they don't mind breaking compatibility with sidekick standards (DOS, J++, .doc, etc...), and this will certainly be the case with MONO.
The idea behind such technologies is to make them hardware agnostic.
It would be in the best interest to stick with Java for web services since Sun Microsystems doesn't mind others to join in on the effort. Why mess with something that will always be one step behind the mothership?