Sure, until there is a paradigm shift which is likely to come from somewhere unexpected... and after we will say, of course, why did it not happen sooner...
I think the greates threat to the company is dwindling sales... if competition can cut into its keymoney makers like office and it has trouble gaining new markets, it would spell a slow death. No one ever say worldcom going under either... I predicted that one and was laughed at...
Assume MS does go under, someone else will pick it up and focus on the OS keeping that going: however, during this time innovation will suffer a little, letting the competition OSes gain ground.
This is how I see it. No empire lasts forever, no one...