Expect newer harddrives to survive just a month longer than the warranty. Escpecially if it's Maxtor / Quantum. Seagate / Western Digital and Samsung seem to survive longer (I had multiple Maxtors and Quantums getting invalid just out of warranty, I've got Western Digitals and Samsungs which still survive).
Whatever you do, don't expect the modern ones to survive for the same period as the good-old Amiga drives (yes, Quantum still made quality back then :-)).