I agree that the computers got too complicated for casual programming and the ubiquity of software and the internet give plenty of other options.
I was always extremely interested in programming, but several of my friends picked up decent programming skills just for something to do.
Remember that BASIC was the OS for all intents and purposes. Anything you could make it do was special. Printing something in a loop and seeing it scroll up the screen, changing the screen color, whatever. Today you'd have to make one hell of a demo to feel like you accomplished anything.
Programming hasn't become more complex. But expectations have risen. I.e. a simple basic program has teh sam ecomplexity today as it had years ago. And it does the same stuff (okay, magnitudes faster), but nobody's getting impressed by this today. We are used to polished programs today. And to make those is quite soem work.
But if you do some occaional stuff, it isn't harder than in the past. But don't expect to become a millionare today as a bedroom programmer. Those times are indeed over.
