What will determine if the iPad is sucessful will be whether or not it has a killer app that will get people to buy one.
Apple have this thing called the App store, you know :p
In all seriousness, I'm starting to see some iPhone apps getting updates including iPad interfaces, and they look VERY nice. For example, the iPhone synthesiser/sequencer "bleep!BOX" has just been updated with a lovely, hi-res iPad interface. Personally, if I could afford an iPad I would grab one straight away. I think the iPad would be a great device to sit with on the train and sketch out a track with. Yes I could achieve the same results (probably better) on my MacBook, but there's something about using my fingers that makes me feel more connected to what I'm writing.
On the other hand, the iPad is definitely not a competitor as a main computer for me. I spend too much time putting windows next to each other (e.g. a Preview window displaying a journal article, and a Pages document to take notes), and the iPad's interface can't do this.
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moto
