By some definitions (very long time coming, still not available) I think it fits into the category of vapourware by now, but even though Ive thus far been a bit iffy of Natami I still do expect something to see the light of day, so I personally dont feel comfortable labelling it as vapor.
As for fpgaarcade, Im not nearly as informed as some, but I was under the impression it's somewhat more "ambitious" (for lack of a better word) than minimig. Correct me if Im mistaken, but doesnt it support aga, and faster cpus than minimig ? Both also have a few chipram and bandwidth impovements vs. "real" chipset implementations. Unless Im mistaken, fpgaarcade would indeed cut into some of natami's "market" (ie. those that just want a new replacement aga/68k machine with a few enhancements). Granted Natami also brings a few additional extras to the table, but unless my understanding of fpgaarcade is inaccurate whoever gets something out first, I believe, will get a few extra sales.
For now theyre little more than an interesting curiousity to me (Im happy with my a1200), but I do look forward to seeing them "in the flesh" one day
