Another hurricane coming?

[KennyR]

Frances has mostly passed over Florida, and is dissipating fast. But even as it dies out, Hurricane IVAN is brewing in the mid-Atlantic, and has already reached Catagory 3! It's far too early to say if Ivan will follow the same path as Frances and Charley, but if it does, Florida will have an unprecended three hurricanes coming ashore in a period of just a few months.

[KennyR]

Well, global warming or not, what is certain is that hurricane activity has increased since 1960 and then again since 1995. I think if Ivan lands there will be no big deal, but if next year, and the year after that, the eastern seaboard gets a triple whammy, there will be big questions asked - especially if it's Florida again.

From NOAA:

During 1995-2003 hurricane seasons have averaged 13 tropical storms, 7.7 hurricanes, 3.6 major hurricanes, and have an average ACE index of 159% of the median. NOAA classifies all but two of these nine seasons (the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002) as above normal. In contrast, during the preceding 1970-1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 8.6 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, and had an average ACE index of only 70% of the median. NOAA classifies twelve (almost one-half) of these 25 seasons as being below normal, and only three as being above normal (1980, 1988, 1989).

[KennyR]

AccyD wrote:
The problem we have is that we are tracking records only over a very very short period of time (150 years at most) so we don't have evidence of the long-term trends in weather fluctuations so any "experts" view is simply a guess.

We have plenty. Antarctic ice cores, lake bottom mud samples, tree rings, etc. It's prone to much more error than simply pulling out a thermometer, but it does turn what you call a guess into a rather more educated guess.

[KennyR]

Tigger wrote:
I show that we are having fewer Atlantic Hurricaines, then in previous years...

Huh? You've lost it. The NOAA (the experts) have already PROVEN that there are more hurricanes per year, just like other sources have already PROVEN that the planet's weather systems have warmed considerably over the past 15 years. Any ranting from you (and from your Republican heroes) is irrelevant. Science has dumped your theory a long time ago. Live with it.

Note that NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), who are not linked to the IPCC, who have a huge amount of data on weather systems, who have more knowledge of this even than NASA, have this to say.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

Very interesting. Seems your theory on the IPCC being the evil mastermind just went up in smoke.