downloads of the alpha release of TimberWolf show over 3x that amount & that doesn't include 4.0 users
Download statistics are a very bad gauge. Even more with OS4-SW where a lot of those downloads might have happenend with their version of OWB (known to f###up downloads) or with downloads that are so old that people might have done a complete resinstall in the meantime (also not unheard of in OS4-circles).
Add those who don't own OS4.1 but download "just to check".
The whole thing gets 100% pointless if a specific download is missued as an gauge several times (as happened in another case).
