Amiga.org
The "Not Quite Amiga but still computer related category" => Alternative Operating Systems => Topic started by: AeroMan on January 02, 2009, 02:25:13 PM
-
No, It is not a typo. I don´t expect things to change that much for the next year, but in 10 years they will for sure.
I´m not talking about hopes and dreams. I would like to know what are your feelings about how the computer world will be in the future.
Who would say in 1988 that Amiga would be dead by 2008 and PCs would represent 99% of the computer base? Who would say by 1998 that PPC Macs would be completely replaced by common x86 boxes? Who would consider the "homemade" Linux a major player competing against the all powerful Microsoft? In 10 years everything can happens.
I have my personal opinions about the future, but I would rather like to see yours instead of driving the discussion around comments and critics about my thoughts.
...and by the way: Happy 2009 to all
-
I expect approximately 10% of today's Amiga users to be discussing what to expect in 2029...
-
I think you will see more dumb terminals in homes and businesses and more of the computing power being in centralized locations.
-
2019? I predict that AI vs Hyperion case will be ready for jury trial in two more weeks. :lol:
Dammy
-
A home version of the 'talkie toaster' from Red Dwarf will be available from all good retailers
-
As much as I hate to type it... By 2019, I'd expect home computer OWNERSHIP to be on the decline.
That's not to say home computer USAGE will drop, but I expect more and more of the subscription/rental model will be taking over.
People are pretty much fed up with owning PCs. They crash, get infected, and are generally a nuisance. Besides us geeks who know how it all works, who really wants all the hassle and expense of really owning a system?
Much like the Cable/Sat TV market, I see hardware becoming secondary, almost to the point of invisibility. Most people will simply pay a monthly fee to use their web browsing, word processing, and email package on whatever hardware box is included in the subscription.
-
Much like the Cable/Sat TV market, I see hardware becoming secondary, almost to the point of invisibility. Most people will simply pay a monthly fee to use their web browsing, word processing, and email package on whatever hardware box is included in the subscription.
But people will still complain about being locked into a 2 year contract just to get subsidized hardware.
-
Greater but gradual integration/blending of computer networking with everyday household electronics including television, thermostats, kitchen, etc. Not too exciting overall. More technology for the masses -- those who like to use it but don't understand how it works (even fundamentally).
-
What do you expect for 2019?
Global Thermal Nuclear War, WIII!
They will nuke us! :-o
-
Darth_X wrote:
What do you expect for 2019?
Global Thermal Nuclear War, WIII!
They will nuke us! :-o
I was betting somebody would say mass extintion due to global heating, but this is also a good one.
2019? I predict that AI vs Hyperion case will be ready for jury trial in two more weeks.
Dammy
Sorry, no hopes or dreams allowed. :laughing:
It is getting interesting, more posts, please :-D
-
I figure by then an AGA Minimig on steroids will have come out. I hope. I won't have any hair left on my head fore sure.
-
In 2019, the immediate availability of os5, if you sign a nda, pre order a coupon, and wait two more weeks.
-
ZeBeeDee wrote:
A home version of the 'talkie toaster' from Red Dwarf will be available from all good retailers
Yay!!!!! Would that be the standard dumb model or the IQ-enhanced one that breaks after a few minutes?! :-)
- Ali
-
I expect my 1200 to still be the center of my retro gaming room/office along side the 64 :pint: ;-) :pint:
-
By then, I sadly expect all computer monitors must be placed such that the users will be facing Mecca :sealed: sitting on their knees on a red carpet.
Nah.... just kidding :-).
I'm about to move to a new house. I plan to have like two LCD monitors mounted to the wall, each with a EeeBox style computer piggy-back-mounted on them. Like that, silent computing would be available in the living. While those EeeBoxes are not the most powerful machines, choosing the correct file format for multimedia content these little boxes could easily double as media playing devices. So no more stacks of devices like it is now. Not a separate machine for radio, video, music, web-browsing, game-playing and so on.
Of course, the central wireless router of the house would be nicely put away into a cabinet, not visible to everyone and it would have some mass-storage device of a couple of TBs to store all the music, movies and documents.
What I also hope (but don't see happening) is virtual intelligence with the devices. It would be fun to have the computer shouting back when it is shouted at :-).
-
In 2019 I'll go to Los Angeles and expect to see Rick Deckard hunting down the streets. *SCNR*
-
by AeroMan on 2009/1/2 21:50:40
Sorry, no hopes or dreams allowed.
Oh, you expect a miracle to happen this Monday in court? :lol:
Dammy
-
I predict by 2019 we have even more computing power in our homes than before. Windows is still the leading one. We all own our hardware because it's so cheap. Processing power is way beoynd what we need if we don't do games etc.
Operatingsystems runs as virtual machines and when infected by a virus or trojan a last-known-good image of your OS starts in the background and transfers your desktop and data into the new one and puts the infected image in the thrashcan, everything done without any reboot and without you noticing much.
Oh and Amiga like OS'es do well in the open source world, and
closed source ones are struggling quite like today with a very
small userbase and old technology.
-
dammy wrote:
Oh, you expect a miracle to happen this Monday in court? :lol:
Dammy
:lol: I expect them to fight until they are dead. My grandsons might see the end of this (maybe...)
-
2019?
AROS will be finished pretty soon.
Anubis is still trying to build on kernel 2.6.28, and it's real soon right now.
There are some people who say if an Amiga is produced it'll sell millions and millions.
Amiga Inc announces 16 new products produced by a company who's entire staff are foetuses.
Most large cities have an Apple iMall where they can by iClothes, iGroceries and iKebabs, with plenty of parking for their iCars.
-
I predict by 2019 we have even more computing power in our homes than before.Windows is still the leading one
And Windows 2015 (yes, the 2015 version will be out in 2019) will run even more slooooower than now :-P
-
And Windows 2015 (yes, the 2015 version will be out in 2019) will run even more slooooower than now :-P
But not as slow as Vista, even on a quad-core based PC :lol:
-
The beginnings of the world wide mind?
We might not be preoccupied with computers by then. Who knows?
Perhaps our metabolic rate will be part of some sort of taxation scale?
I might have already decomposed by then.
Amiga SolarDE panels with intent.
-
Microsoft, in an attempt to keep up with Apple's 'hip' advertising takes to naming its operating system after Hollywood celebrities... all goes well until 2018, when they suddenly go bankrupt after releasing 'Windows Kevin Costner'.
-
You guys seem to have a very optimistic outlook for our way of life in 10 years time.
Personally, I predict the complete transfer of wealth and power from the West over to the Asian continent to be pretty much complete by then. Our contrived economic meltdown will long since have been completed and the life style and liberties which we have struggled for over the past couple of centuries will have been gleefully dismantled by our treacherous rulers.
Even if we did have enough leisure time between the 5 low paid jobs the average man will have to work in order to eat and keep a roof over his head, our Amigas will have long since been sold in order to fund the bare necessities of life. If we're lucky, our new ultra socialist governments may have installed "Public Computers" which we can use for a maximum of 30 minutes per week in some designated public place, under strict supervision - in order to prevent "terrorist" communication (of course).
I'm pretty sure we will still be surrounded by computer technology, however not much of it will be for the purpose of "entertainment". They will be used more to manage and feed huge centralized social databases and keep tabs on society; more Linked-CCTV cameras, RFID chips, ID Cards, biometric scanners, intrusive "security" AI, GPS tracking tech. (linked to authorities) in every personal item, etc. If you are allowed computers or are fortunate enough to be able to afford one and the electricity require to boot one up, then the most you can hope for is a dumb terminal, with all your data held in "teh cloud", so that your government can monitor data flow and protect you from your own desire to seek truth, justice and knowledge. Computing will be designated a Public Activity, where (for security reasons) you will have no rights to privacy.
You will be in an orchestrated living hell by 2019, but the strangest thing is that few will even realize it. Our children certainly wont.
But that's just my rosy take on it - hopefully I'm wrong, or at least it wont all happen THAT soon. :-)
-
Oh, btw. If none of what I mentioned above comes to, We/Internet V2.0 almost _certainly_ will be in place by then. Which means absolutely no anonymity on the net.
Not that us Amigans need to worry about that stuff, none of us are interested in downloading (strictly illegal) "abandon ware" for our Amigas. :-o
-
@arkanoid
Let's all get Face book accounts, yay!
-
Rob wrote:
@arkanoid
Let's all get Face book accounts, yay!
lol, sure why make thir task difficult. Let's just clutch hands together and jump willingly into the inferno! :-D
Eweryone should have a Facebook account...it's so trendy and fashionable - the media says so! :crazy:
-
Priceless (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=45960122151)
-
No worries. decline X for the West results in decline 2X for Asia. Of course, the downside already is that electronics today last only years instead of decades, food is poisonous, and kids toys come with tasty lead paint too.
arkanoid wrote:
You guys seem to have a very optimistic outlook for our way of life in 10 years time.
Personally, I predict the complete transfer of wealth and power from the West over to the Asian continent to be pretty much complete by then. Our contrived economic meltdown will long since have been completed and the life style and liberties which we have struggled for over the past couple of centuries will have been gleefully dismantled by our treacherous rulers.
Even if we did have enough leisure time between the 5 low paid jobs the average man will have to work in order to eat and keep a roof over his head, our Amigas will have long since been sold in order to fund the bare necessities of life. If we're lucky, our new ultra socialist governments may have installed "Public Computers" which we can use for a maximum of 30 minutes per week in some designated public place, under strict supervision - in order to prevent "terrorist" communication (of course).
I'm pretty sure we will still be surrounded by computer technology, however not much of it will be for the purpose of "entertainment". They will be used more to manage and feed huge centralized social databases and keep tabs on society; more Linked-CCTV cameras, RFID chips, ID Cards, biometric scanners, intrusive "security" AI, GPS tracking tech. (linked to authorities) in every personal item, etc. If you are allowed computers or are fortunate enough to be able to afford one and the electricity require to boot one up, then the most you can hope for is a dumb terminal, with all your data held in "teh cloud", so that your government can monitor data flow and protect you from your own desire to seek truth, justice and knowledge. Computing will be designated a Public Activity, where (for security reasons) you will have no rights to privacy.
You will be in an orchestrated living hell by 2019, but the strangest thing is that few will even realize it. Our children certainly wont.
But that's just my rosy take on it - hopefully I'm wrong, or at least it wont all happen THAT soon. :-)
-
Most of the European and Asian Amiga users are dead by 2019 due to the war of 2014.
The economic turndown we are seeing now accelerates and forces CocaCola to shrink back to its native country and begin only selling in the USA. However the nature of new world wide patents together a law sneaked in by the RIAA in 2010 prevented anyone but the original artists selling or distributing outside the US.
All the Europeans who hate Pepsi Max start an underground movement secretly smuggling large quantities of Classic & Cherry Coke into Europe through the channels originally set up for Grey imports of the Disney themed : Nintendo Pooh (Wii 2) consoles. Which in 2011 were sold out everywhere in Europe causing terrible rioting at the time.
Back to the main plot:
With profit margins at an all time low due to the unprecedented uptake of prohibition smuggled Coke (if it is illegal it's cool!) Pepsi called in the help of the USA Government to send in the Armed Forces to help route out the European Coke rebels. The US gov agreed, surprising many countries but it turns out they mis-read the email and thought they were going to tackle a huge drug problem in Europe.
The war rages on for several years with heavy casualties on both sides but with neither gaining much ground due to the European coke dealers consisting mainly software engineers who wrote most of the code used by the American military! Sabotage, Microsoft calender bugs and an above average percentage of US deaths due to friendly fire kept the war at stalemate.
By 2019 the Cok3-4-All rebel alliance, once made up from hundreds of Amiga users had lost most of their original membership in battle and was mainly made up of teenagers who had never heard of the Amiga let alone 2D games :-(
Last word was the Rebels were trying to get Celine Dione (a regular coke user) to support their cause by banning the use of "The heart will go on" at US Military funerals thereby undermining the public spirit and lowering morale in the forces.
-
at do you expect for 2019?
Well i'd be 10 years older and 10 years nearer retirement and hopefully 10 times richer :-D
My Micro A1 will be deemed a " Classic Amiga" and will sell for £10,000+ pounds on Z-bay ( Ebay finally sold itself in 2016 even though it had a zero feedback rating)
-
Rob wrote:
Priceless (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=45960122151)
hahah, yes!
I was talking about this only yesterday:
"Oh no, the government want's to track your every move, know where you've been, who your friends ar...ooohhh I was at that party!" *tag* *tag *tag*...
heheh...
My prediction for 2019 is that Ainc/Hyperion (I can't keep up...) releases OS4 for Mac Mini, and wonders why it isn't the success 2008's forum posts suggest it should be :lol:
-
Rob wrote:
Priceless (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=45960122151)
haha, oh the irony! All the govenment need do is combine this ID card with someform of "social networking" technology and those {bleep}s would be up for it. especially if it involved them being able to plaster half naked pics of themselves posing in front of a mirror :idea:
-
AeroMan wrote:
No, It is not a typo. I don´t expect things to change that much for the next year, but in 10 years they will for sure.
I´m not talking about hopes and dreams. I would like to know what are your feelings about how the computer world will be in the future.
Who would say in 1988 that Amiga would be dead by 2008 and PCs would represent 99% of the computer base?
In terms of at least the US, it was clear by 88 that the PC had won the corporate/businses market, so it probably wouldn't have generated as many frowns as you think though perhaps maybe over the 99% figure but then that is wrong anyway, the figure is closer to 90-95% when you take into account the Mac and alternative platforms
Anyway back on topic I predict that in 10 years time Internet Computing will become the standard, that is more applications that are accessed online than via the computer itself.
I also predict solid state drives will become the standard and be much more affordable, replacing the tradional hard disk.
I think the Amiga will still be chugging along happily as a hobbyist platform. If it was going to die out completely, it would have done by now. As long as we have us users keeping it going then companies will give us new products now and again. I can't realistically seeing Amiga recapture the glory of the early 90s. Those days are gone though optimistically I predict that Microsoft's dominance of the market will be severely reduced with more companies in particular switching to Linux and open source systems.
-
Ilwrath wrote:
As much as I hate to type it... By 2019, I'd expect home computer OWNERSHIP to be on the decline.
That's not to say home computer USAGE will drop, but I expect more and more of the subscription/rental model will be taking over.
People are pretty much fed up with owning PCs. They crash, get infected, and are generally a nuisance. Besides us geeks who know how it all works, who really wants all the hassle and expense of really owning a system?
Much like the Cable/Sat TV market, I see hardware becoming secondary, almost to the point of invisibility. Most people will simply pay a monthly fee to use their web browsing, word processing, and email package on whatever hardware box is included in the subscription.
An absolutely dreadful idea, one of the reasons I see people flocking to Linux in years to come.
Typical moneymaking mayhem from M$ :madashell:
-
Manu wrote:
I predict by 2019 we have even more computing power in our homes than before. Windows is still the leading one. We all own our hardware because it's so cheap. Processing power is way beoynd what we need if we don't do games etc.
I will predict that following the trend of the last 20 years, no matter how much power your computer has, the latest Windows version will hog it all and slow it to that familiar sluggish level of responsiveness! :-)
-
Well Microsoft has 90%+ of the market, even with the disaster that is Vista, even with everyone packing iPods and iPhones, Mac's share of the personal computer market can't be over 5%. So I suspect nothing is going to stop Microsoft.
We are on the path to convergence, telephones (if landlines still exist in 2019), video recorders, TVs aren't really distinct devices anymore and there will likely be one box in your house that provides your non-mobile phone, TV, game and internet needs.
-
I predict that by 2019, only "classic cars" will have gearboxes. By then, all cars with an internal combustion engine will use a generator and electric motors instead of the mechanical gearbox.
Computer-wise, we'll see more integration, wider data paths, and despite all the integration (gfx, cpu and memory controller all on-chip), the distributed computing approach will be followed, resembling what nature teaches us: the world is designed as a parallel thing. Parallel computing is the logical step. Object-oriented programming is already going into the direction: Every piece of data has it's own piece of code that works on the data. This transformed to hardware will mean that memory and CPU power will melt, so in layman's terms, the data knows how to operate on itself.
You might guess it already: Such hardware is re-configurable, based on what FPGAs are today - with the slight difference of much more logic cells, partial real-time re-configuration and way higher frequencies. We won't have CPUs any more, but myriads of execution units that can either team up to work on a single thread (resembling the classic "central" processing approach), or work in extremely simple threads in parallel on their own local memory.
Privacy will be a thing of the past. Encryption will be totally illegal. If you don't already own a mobile phone, there will be some law that forces you to have an electronic device - for your protection of course. You must be trackable, in case you need medical help or your beloved ones need to contact you. Leaving the trackable zone, for example on a weekend trip out in the country, is a felony if you don't announce it on a social networking site two weeks in advance.
Since Asian and middle eastern countries are sitting on so many US Dollars, the federal reserve bank has found a clever way of de-valuing those foreign assets during the transition from the US Dollar to the "Amero", the American equivalent of the Euro. Foreigners are not allowed to buy land in the US, and foreign stockholders are taxed extreme premiums in order to slow down the rate of the US economy being bought up by non-US citizens.
Oh, did I mention the electric car revolution of 2015, that brought the US car makers into extreme problems, because all the import cars run for a third of the cost per mile?
Jens
-
I dislike your vision, Mr. Schoenfeld.
-
I thought time ended on 21 December 2012 :) So play as much as you can with your Amiga's while you have time!
-
is that the 32bit roll over on the internal clock? yours has a battery still? :lol:
not sure about 2019, but all we've seen recently is evolution of existing tech. no revolution.
the gradual dumbing down of the general populace by mass media. people see no value in life unless they work/study/shop/watch TV. leading me to think that people who think "outside the box" (for the "box" read - state decided and controlled normality), will be labled as deviants and monitored.
wondering if it will be against the law soon to have my wireless network locked down, and if full drive encryption will be outlawed.
thinking about it, to johnny government, a fully encrypted NTFS drive and an amiga SFS/FFS formatted drive probably look the same, so running old systems to "stay off the grid" may become popular, and outlawed... :lol:
but by then, i'll probably have kids just hitting the first year of school, and not really care beyond struggling though life in general... which is just what they want! :-D
-
tone007 wrote:
I dislike your vision, Mr. Schoenfeld.
I can totally understand that, but being a science fiction fan, I try to think into the direction that current&past happenings suggest.
I think you don't dislike the technical stuff, as my visions on cheap-to-operate-electric cars and computers way faster than what we have today are not all that negative. I can't back it up with any "myriads of execution units"-research, but to me, it's a logical step.
Cars: 2015 is the date when the Nickel-metal-hydride patent, which is held by Chevron, is void. That type of battery is IMHO the only type that can be used on an electric car, as lead-acid is too heavy, and Li-Ion doesn't live long enough to justify an investment of 15-20k USD into a battery pack, as such an investment would have to last "a lifetime of the car". Li-Ion fades away after a few hundred charge/discharge cycles, but Nimh has no memory effect.
Gearboxes: Look at the Volvo ReCharge concept (based on the C30 platform). It runs, and it takes 30% less gas, just because the engine is always running at ideal RPMs and there are no losses in a mechanical gearbox.
This leads over to my economic forecasts: All the innovations in the automotive sector come from Europe, so the US auto makers will either have to license technology, or quit keeping your own engineers down, like they did with the EV1 (just watch the documentary "who killed the electric car").
Encryption and tracking: Read the "patriot act" and check what your "Real ID" is about. Biometric data from every citizen, your home can be searched at any time, your communication can be watched any time, and you can even be held for god knows how long with just the suspicion of being a terrorist. If it's not coming, you might as well say that it's already there. We have the same here in Germany: Biometric data in our passports and RFID chips embedded in them, and a law that requires telecommunication companies to make an encryption-free access to their telephone switches for our secret service. The interface is even described in the law.
Currency: There once was a gold standard, frequently established, then lifted, as "required". Last time the gold standard was lifted was after the French had deliberately reduced US influence on their economy in 1971. Read all about the Bretton Woods system on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system
Transported into today, it's the most logical thing to anticipate that the US invents a method of de-valuing the US Dollars that all the exporting nations (exporting to the US) are sitting on. It's already being done with inflation (extremely low interest rates), but since the "Amero" is hardly known and not covered by the media, I expect this to play a major part in ripping foreign investors off, like it has been done before.
The Amero is currently a hypothetical currency of the North American currency union - read all about that on Wikipedia as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_american_currency_union
As for a timeline, 2019 might be a little early for the Amero. A key figure in the architecture of the Euro was former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl - first elected in 1982, served 4 terms (16 years) and in 2002, his (partial) work became a reality with the introduction of the Euro. From the EU contracts (Maastricht 1992) to introduction of the Euro, it was only 10 years. However, the first European contracts have been signed in the 1950s, so it might take a little longer for the Amero to become a reality. It's still worth some thought about what might happen, and what would be the best strategy not to be among those who are affected in a negative way, as any transition like that has winners and losers.
Jens
-
/
-
more prostitutes!
-
@Schoenfeld
Electric cars rock!
-
Funny you should mention the EV-1, Jens! I had the pleasure of test driving one when I was working at the California Energy Commission (one of the featured folks in Who Killed the Electric Car is Commissioner Jim Boyd).
The EV-1 was a kick to drive. I took it on the freeway with no traffic and asked if I could see what the car would do. The GM rep said sure and I punched it! Wow, I had no idea how fast that electric motor could spin up to top speed! I had a Miata at the time and it had no thrill for me after the EV-1!
Great car with a sad history!
(oh, and to the poster who said that the world ends on 12/21/2012, the Mayans (whose calendar ends on this date) were very interesting folks. If you're in the states the History channel is running Armegedon week! Scary stuff.)
Now back to the topic...
Bob
-
Doh!...2019?...I'll be 80 years old and hope still have some of my memories left, no, I don't means the 72 pin type..
Happy New Year 2009 to all Amiga users & Happy New Year 2019 if I can't remember what year it is or what Viagara is used for!!!
Tony
-
In 2019,
- multi-touch and computer screens will be purvasive.
- rich people will nevertheless insist on the "antique look," opting for beige-coloured boxes and bulky monitors over flexible screens.
- The advent of cheap colour e-ink screens results in most newspapers and records finally becoming paperless. Environmental groups will be calling for the outlawing of producing paper.
- Advertising will be completely personalized.
- voice recognition will still be just a few years away from being widely used
- Sony and Toshiba will be locked in yet another consortium battle for the next generation Ultra HD format.
- Meanwhile he movie industry will be trying to push Ultra HD movies, but most people will be satisfied with HD. Despite the music industry finally ditching DRM, the movie industry will still be sticking to it.
- despite the continual march of technology, people will find that they still need to eat and sleep
Hans
-
Schoenfeld wrote:
Cars: 2015 is the date when the Nickel-metal-hydride patent, which is held by Chevron, is void. That type of battery is IMHO the only type that can be used on an electric car, as lead-acid is too heavy, and Li-Ion doesn't live long enough to justify an investment of 15-20k USD into a battery pack, as such an investment would have to last "a lifetime of the car". Li-Ion fades away after a few hundred charge/discharge cycles, but Nimh has no memory effect.
There is something better than NiMH : the aluminium battery, check that out:
http://www.europositron.com/en/index.html
Combine this battery with a fuel burner and a combustion chamber covered with very efficient thermo-electric chips
from Borealis: http://www.powerchips.gi/ and you have a 1L/100km car.
I also do hope that we will have solved the energy crisis thanks to Mr Eric Lerner and its amazing dense plasma focus fusion device : http://www.focusfusion.org.
I really recommend watching the video at google talks:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1518007279479871760&q=Google+tech+talks+lerner&pr=goog-sl
Regards,
Frederic
-
>by persia on 2009/1/3 9:22:42
>2019?
>AROS will be finished pretty soon.
>Anubis is still trying to build on kernel 2.6.28, and it's real soon right now.
...
>Most large cities have an Apple iMall where they can by iClothes, iGroceries and iKebabs, with plenty of parking for their iCars.
More likely that iCanned law passes in Congress to stop Apple from concocting new words beginning with i as the dictionary now has >99% words beginning with i.
-
>by Schoenfeld on 2009/1/4 19:38:17
>I predict that by 2019, only "classic cars" will have gearboxes. By then, all cars with an internal combustion engine will use a generator and electric motors instead of the mechanical gearbox.
Certainly electric cars could reduce the pollution which looks to inexorably increase heading toward 2019.
>Computer-wise, we'll see more integration, wider data paths, and despite all the integration (gfx, cpu and memory controller all on-chip), the distributed computing approach will be followed, resembling what nature teaches us: the world is designed as a parallel thing. Parallel computing is the logical step. Object-oriented programming is already going into the direction: Every piece of data has it's own piece of code that works on the data. This transformed to hardware will mean that memory and CPU power will melt, so in layman's terms, the data knows how to operate on itself.
There's rules defined a priori that allow data to operate on itself in any OOP set-up so no data is actually going to get a mind of its own beyond the rules and "know" how to operate on itself. I guess that's your sci-fi idea.
>Privacy will be a thing of the past. Encryption will be totally illegal. If you don't already own a mobile phone, there will be some law that forces you to have an electronic device - for your protection of course.
Yeah, one trend has been miniaturization which may lead to more feature-full cell phones. Perhaps lead to more ICD-9 diagnosis of E871.0 in hospitals if the devices get too small.
Really though, good guess for 2019 is take the trend at present and project it further-- more bloated OSes, more memory in systems, higher speed CPUs, etc. Only if someone makes some astounding new discovery does the wave change its course.
Perhaps, someone will make a simpler computer that works like DOS-based systems like Atari, Amiga, or older PCs and they will co-exist with the bloated ones and people can have competition/demos to see in which areas the simpler ones out-do the complex ones.
-
FrenchShark wrote:
There is something better than NiMH : the aluminium battery, check that out:
http://www.europositron.com/en/index.html
There has not been a proof of concept, the battery has not been demonstrated yet. The technology has not been described, so scientists cannot comment on it. The patent is only available in Finnish, which keeps peope from clicking on it. When clicking on it, the link is dead. My guess: Investment scam. The page talks too much about patents, business plans and licensing. There is no product!
Combine this battery with a fuel burner and a combustion chamber covered with very efficient thermo-electric chips
from Borealis: http://www.powerchips.gi/ and you have a 1L/100km car.
Powerchips promises 40% efficiency, yet, didn't ever show anything that works anywhere close to a fraction of that. Sure, there's solid-state effects that produce electricity from heat, but they cannot be used to havest usable amounts of energy.
I also do hope that we will have solved the energy crisis thanks to Mr Eric Lerner and its amazing dense plasma focus fusion device : http://www.focusfusion.org.
Another of those investment scams. If you read about the research fusion reactor located in Jülich, Germany (about 50km from where I live), they are using about the same approach: Catch a plasma in a magnetic field and compress it with the magnetic field. Let the fusion happen, reduce magnetic field and harvest the excess heat.
Problem 1: The toroid ("donut") must be HUGE in order to have a good volume/surface relation. TEXTOR is already a two-story building, but needs to be at least five times as big in order to output more energy than you put into it.
Problem 2: The machine will be instable, as the speaker also suggests. In other words: It'll be a huge ratteling box with the danger of wearing out, setting radioactive material free.
Problem 3: FocusFusion suggests not to use the excess heat, but the moving ions in a kind of "high tech transformator" to produce electricity. At a few million degrees, there are limitations to magnetic transfer of energy.
Question: If building a big unit is really only a few hundred thousand dollars, then why don't they get a loan on their house and build it?
The only answer can be that they do not believe in their own ideas. The speaker in the Google video mentions all the problems (which sound not solvable to me, as for example there is no path for the energy to be harvested), yet suggests that other people put money into it. Hell, the speaker even draws wrong conclusions - he says that the difference between the estimated and the measured values of the magnetic field effect is 10%. Yet the numbers SHOWN are about 6keV estimated to about 4keV measured. Back to class, I'd say. What does he expect investors to do - trust his words or trust his numbers?
I trust in existing technology:
- solar
- wind
- water
- geothermal
As a transition from fossil fuels to completely renewable energy, combined heat and power is a good way of using a good 95% of the energy content of fossil fuels (compared to about 25% use in the average car). Combined heat and power is available today, you can buy such a unit for your house with 10kW heat and 5.5kW electricity out (German company Senertec, product is called Dachs).
If any investor wants to put money into something, then think economical: Buy up one of the failing car companies and re-model their engine plant to build stirling engines:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
Stirling engines can be scaled down and up. They don't care about the heat source: Solar, burned waste or geothermal. There are model engines that run from the heat of your palm (numerous videos on utube). The principle is almost 200 years old, no patents involved (any more). Build a unit with 20kW heat input and 5kW electricity plus 15kW heat output, and you'll have millions of homes as your customer. This might be something that really happens until 2019.
Jens
-
In 2015 Judgement day will happen and the humans hero will rise from somewhere in America going by the name of Doomy Conner who will discover that the only computer impervious to Skynet is a mil spec A2000, he will defeat Skynet in 2019 then go on to release the multi platinum Amiga tribute CD follow by a world tour playing any bomb crater he can. :-D
On a more serious note I think that Jens view is close but privacy will be dead long before 2019. :cry:
Gaz
-
@ Schoenfeld
The electirc car will never be mass produced. I predict by 2019 the majoirty of people will be using hydrogen cell cars. Honda have one that exists and is the way forward.
-
JJ wrote:
@ Schoenfeld
The electirc car will never be mass produced. I predict by 2019 the majoirty of people will be using hydrogen cell cars. Honda have one that exists and is the way forward.
I have a hunch whatever we use to power our vehicles will inadvertently be an easily packaged and sold commodity that can be jacked in price at any market whim.
-
some people i know are convinced that europe wont have hydrogen cars in place until they can charge a tax for every mile we drive using gps. Me i think they will just tax it in the uk until it costs the same to run as a petrol car. Main problem for any government is how easy it is to produce hydrogen yourself.