Coffee House => Coffee House Boards => CH / General => Topic started by: KennyR on September 06, 2004, 02:34:32 AM
Title: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: KennyR on September 06, 2004, 02:34:32 AM
Frances has mostly passed over Florida, and is dissipating fast. But even as it dies out, Hurricane IVAN is brewing in the mid-Atlantic, and has already reached Catagory 3! It's far too early to say if Ivan will follow the same path as Frances and Charley, but if it does, Florida will have an unprecended three hurricanes coming ashore in a period of just a few months.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: adz on September 06, 2004, 04:07:07 AM
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KennyR wrote: Frances has mostly passed over Florida, and is dissipating fast. But even as it dies out, Hurricane IVAN is brewing in the mid-Atlantic, and has already reached Catagory 3! It's far too early to say if Ivan will follow the same path as Frances and Charley, but if it does, Florida will have an unprecended three hurricanes coming ashore in a period of just a few months.
Just saw that on the news, looks like Florida took one hell of a beating from Frances, apparently it was a 75 mile wide eye. I just hope Red, not to mention everybody else in Florida, is okay.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: whabang on September 06, 2004, 11:21:15 AM
Not good. The weather has been a bit wierd as of late, but this is insane!
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: bloodline on September 06, 2004, 11:40:22 AM
The Earth gets it's own back :-(
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: B00tDisk on September 06, 2004, 02:49:39 PM
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bloodline wrote: The Earth gets it's own back :-(
Nonsense. Has nothing to do with anything. I'm sure before Europeans came to FL, there were multiple-hurricane impact seasons, and there will be more in the future.
Anyway, we weathered this one - Bring it on, Ivan!
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: blobrana on September 06, 2004, 02:57:55 PM
Hum,
[color=000099] [/color]
a few scientists are predicting that these hurricanes are going to become more frequent due to global warming,
[color=000099] [/color]
[color=000099] [/color]
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: whabang on September 06, 2004, 03:07:59 PM
LOL @ Blobrana :lol:
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: PMC on September 06, 2004, 04:41:47 PM
According to the laws of chaos theory, the disturbance to air currents as a butterfly flaps it's wings can cause a storm on the other side of the planet.
I'm sure the people of Florida will appreciate my vain efforts in attempting to dissuade my mate Phil from eating that Chicken Jalfrezi.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: redrumloa on September 06, 2004, 05:57:46 PM
/start humor
Naah we have nothing to fear in Florida. Our Republican Gov is the brother of our Republican Pres, and it's a swing state.. So... Relief efforts were swift and final:-)
/end humor
In all seriousness, not to take anything away from those in direct hit zone, but Frances was a wimpy storm. Most of the state got moderate winds and light rain. Inconvience was the worst part of this storm for most Floridians.
Yes I'm watching Ivan now. What are the odds of 3 storms in a season? Has it ever happened since these storms were recorded in the US? For 12 years, ever since Andrew, every single year they predict doom and gloom with record number of major storms making landfall. I guess if you predict something like clockwork every year, it will eventually become true.
Anyhow I hope all our Floridan friends here weathered the storm ok. Locally we are all pretty much unscathed.
-Edit- Except they cancelled Ozzfest :pissed: :pissed: :pissed:
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: KennyR on September 06, 2004, 06:03:46 PM
Well, global warming or not, what is certain is that hurricane activity has increased since 1960 and then again since 1995. I think if Ivan lands there will be no big deal, but if next year, and the year after that, the eastern seaboard gets a triple whammy, there will be big questions asked - especially if it's Florida again.
From NOAA:
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During 1995-2003 hurricane seasons have averaged 13 tropical storms, 7.7 hurricanes, 3.6 major hurricanes, and have an average ACE index of 159% of the median. NOAA classifies all but two of these nine seasons (the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002) as above normal. In contrast, during the preceding 1970-1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 8.6 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, and had an average ACE index of only 70% of the median. NOAA classifies twelve (almost one-half) of these 25 seasons as being below normal, and only three as being above normal (1980, 1988, 1989).
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: blobrana on September 06, 2004, 06:35:03 PM
@PMC Hum, i can see the headlines now...
Butterflies exterminated in Sumatra-- "We WILL stop hurricanes," vows Bush
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: AccyD on September 06, 2004, 06:51:51 PM
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redrumloa wrote: I guess if you predict something like clockwork every year, it will eventually become true.
That's right, and nobody remembers the 50 years they are wrong, only the one year when they are right! :-?
It's like global warming, over the past two years in the UK we have had the warmest on record (2003) and one of the wettest on record (2004).
The fact is the earth has been warming up for hundreds of years (since the Ice Age), and with all probability did so millions of years ago in a similar fashion. The problem we have is that we are tracking records only over a very very short period of time (150 years at most) so we don't have evidence of the long-term trends in weather fluctuations so any "experts" view is simply a guess.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: AccyD on September 06, 2004, 06:53:06 PM
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blobrana wrote: @PMC Hum, i can see the headlines now...
Butterflies exterminated in Sumatra-- "We WILL stop hurricanes," vows Bush
Have wings now been classified as weapons of mass destruction??
:-D :-D
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: Speelgoedmannetje on September 06, 2004, 07:19:31 PM
@Blobrana :roflmao:
If they can't monopolize the oil market, they'll monopolize the nectar market!
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: whabang on September 06, 2004, 07:40:31 PM
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PMC wrote: According to the laws of chaos theory, the disturbance to air currents as a butterfly flaps it's wings can cause a storm on the other side of the planet.
I'm sure the people of Florida will appreciate my vain efforts in attempting to dissuade my mate Phil from eating that Chicken Jalfrezi.
Funny. I was discussing this with a colleague earlier today. I was thinking that if the butterfly waved it's wings, and caused a storm, someone smacked the bloody bug, making thing even worse! :-)
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: Karlos on September 06, 2004, 07:45:44 PM
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redrumloa wrote:
In all seriousness, not to take anything away from those in direct hit zone, but Frances was a wimpy storm. Most of the state got moderate winds and light rain. Inconvience was the worst part of this storm for most Floridians.
I expect the last thing anybody needed was a storm right when they were cleaning up from the last one though :-(
Ivan is looking a tad more formiddable also...
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: KennyR on September 06, 2004, 10:34:43 PM
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AccyD wrote: The problem we have is that we are tracking records only over a very very short period of time (150 years at most) so we don't have evidence of the long-term trends in weather fluctuations so any "experts" view is simply a guess.
We have plenty. Antarctic ice cores, lake bottom mud samples, tree rings, etc. It's prone to much more error than simply pulling out a thermometer, but it does turn what you call a guess into a rather more educated guess.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: cecilia on September 06, 2004, 10:45:12 PM
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I think if Ivan lands there will be no big deal, but if next year, and the year after that, the eastern seaboard gets a triple whammy, there will be big questions asked - especially if it's Florida again.
do you think republicans can remember a from whole year ago????
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: Tigger on September 07, 2004, 04:06:23 PM
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KennyR wrote:
We have plenty. Antarctic ice cores, lake bottom mud samples, tree rings, etc. It's prone to much more error than simply pulling out a thermometer, but it does turn what you call a guess into a rather more educated guess.
Yeah Kenny, thats good, we've shown by ice cores, tree rings, satellites etc, that Global Warming isnt occuring, but hey you dont care, I show that we are having fewer Atlantic Hurricaines, then in previous years, but again you dont care, you just have to chant your global warming chant (copywritten by the IPCC), while while wearing your WWUND bracelet, and forget actual science. -Tig
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: KennyR on September 07, 2004, 04:34:15 PM
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Tigger wrote: I show that we are having fewer Atlantic Hurricaines, then in previous years...
Huh? You've lost it. The NOAA (the experts) have already PROVEN that there are more hurricanes per year, just like other sources have already PROVEN that the planet's weather systems have warmed considerably over the past 15 years. Any ranting from you (and from your Republican heroes) is irrelevant. Science has dumped your theory a long time ago. Live with it.
Note that NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), who are not linked to the IPCC, who have a huge amount of data on weather systems, who have more knowledge of this even than NASA, have this to say.
Very interesting. Seems your theory on the IPCC being the evil mastermind just went up in smoke.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: FluffyMcDeath on September 07, 2004, 05:03:55 PM
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Tigger wrote:
Yeah Kenny, thats good, we've shown by ice cores, tree rings, satellites etc, that Global Warming isnt occuring, but hey you dont care, I show that we are having fewer Atlantic Hurricaines, [...] -Tig
Who's "we"? You are living in denial. I am living in Canada where we are currently trying to get more military patrols in our far north because less of it is frozen less of the time these days and we need to enforce our claim to the soon to be more accessible resources. Global warming is real and it is having real effects. You can sit in a corner with a bag on your head saying "it isn't so, it isn't so" but it's so nonetheless.
Title: Re: Another hurricane coming?
Post by: Tigger on September 07, 2004, 06:00:20 PM
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KennyR wrote:
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Tigger wrote: I show that we are having fewer Atlantic Hurricaines, then in previous years...
Huh? You've lost it. The NOAA (the experts) have already PROVEN that there are more hurricanes per year, just like other sources have already PROVEN that the planet's weather systems have warmed considerably over the past 15 years.
Really then why in the document you pointed too did they say this:
"Where reliable data are available, tropical storm frequency and intensity show no significant long-term trend in any basin. There are apparent decadal-interdecadal fluctuations, but nothing which is conlusive in suggesting a longer-term component. "
Gee that doesnt say what you are saying does it Kenny?? The fact is the 1950s had more Atlantic Hurricanes then the 1990's, and of the 10 largest storms of the 20th century only one (Andrew in 1992) occurred since you were born (the other 9 all occurred before 1970), thats from the NOAA site as well.
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Note that NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), who are not linked to the IPCC, who have a huge amount of data on weather systems, who have more knowledge of this even than NASA, have this to say.
Very interesting. Seems your theory on the IPCC being the evil mastermind just went up in smoke
Did you actually read what you pointed to, the first line says this:
"This page is based on a brief synopsis of the 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,"
Gee thats seems really far from the nothing to do with IPCC comment you made, its the NOAA site quoting the IPCC document, amazing how you missed that. -Tig