Licenses yes, new users no.
I am a relatively new user, having only adopted MOS once Powermac support was introduced. I have several contacts that would like to use MorphOS to develop software under that I am working with to set up hardware. None of these people are former MorphOS licensees.
Simply stated, there are more MorphOS users than there are OS4 users or AROS users. And you yourself know why, its a better product.
However, I too believe there are more 68K users than stated, and there are a lot more former 68K Amiga users, so the potential base to grow from is there (as long as we don't have to count on Franko).
Why so negative Nicholas? I know you've used MorphOS and have stated you'd prefer it over AOS4.
Can't you tell by that graph that the rate of license purchases is up?
Just from that you can infer that there are new users as a stagnant user base would result in a relatively flat graph.