What do you expect for 2019?

[orb85750]

No worries.  decline X for the West results in decline 2X for Asia.  Of course, the downside already is that electronics today last only years instead of decades, food is poisonous, and kids toys come with tasty lead paint too.    

arkanoid wrote:
You guys seem to have a very optimistic outlook for our way of life in 10 years time.

Personally, I predict the complete transfer of wealth and power from the West over to the Asian continent to be pretty much complete by then. Our contrived economic meltdown will long since have been completed and the life style and liberties which we have struggled for over the past couple of centuries will have been gleefully dismantled by our treacherous rulers.

Even if we did have enough leisure time between the 5 low paid jobs the average man will have to work in order to eat and keep a roof over his head, our Amigas will have long since been sold in order to fund the bare necessities of life. If we're lucky, our new ultra socialist governments may have installed "Public Computers" which we can use for a maximum of 30 minutes per week in some designated public place, under strict supervision - in order to prevent "terrorist" communication (of course).

I'm pretty sure we will still be surrounded by computer technology, however not much of it will be for the purpose of "entertainment". They will be used more to manage and feed huge centralized social databases and keep tabs on society; more Linked-CCTV cameras, RFID chips, ID Cards, biometric scanners, intrusive "security" AI, GPS tracking tech. (linked to authorities) in every personal item, etc. If you are allowed computers or are fortunate enough to be able to afford one and the electricity require to boot one up, then the most you can hope for is a dumb terminal, with all your data held in "teh cloud", so that your government can monitor data flow and protect you from your own desire to seek truth, justice and knowledge. Computing will be designated a Public Activity, where (for security reasons) you will have no rights to privacy.

You will be in an orchestrated living hell by 2019, but the strangest thing is that few will even realize it. Our children certainly wont.

But that's just my rosy take on it - hopefully I'm wrong, or at least it wont all happen THAT soon. :-)

[alexh]

Most of the European and Asian Amiga users are dead by 2019 due to the war of 2014.

The economic turndown we are seeing now accelerates and forces CocaCola to shrink back to its native country and begin only selling in the USA. However the nature of new world wide patents together a law sneaked in by the RIAA in 2010 prevented anyone but the original artists selling or distributing outside the US.

All the Europeans who hate Pepsi Max start an underground movement secretly smuggling large quantities of Classic & Cherry Coke into Europe through the channels originally set up for Grey imports of the Disney themed : Nintendo Pooh (Wii 2) consoles. Which in 2011 were sold out everywhere in Europe causing terrible rioting at the time.

Back to the main plot:

With profit margins at an all time low due to the unprecedented uptake of prohibition smuggled Coke (if it is illegal it's cool!) Pepsi called in the help of the USA Government to send in the Armed Forces to help route out the European Coke rebels. The US gov agreed, surprising many countries but it turns out they mis-read the email and thought they were going to tackle a huge drug problem in Europe.

The war rages on for several years with heavy casualties on both sides but with neither gaining much ground due to the European coke dealers consisting mainly software engineers who wrote most of the code used by the American military! Sabotage, Microsoft calender bugs and an above average percentage of US deaths due to friendly fire kept the war at stalemate.

By 2019 the Cok3-4-All rebel alliance, once made up from hundreds of Amiga users had lost most of their original membership in battle and was mainly made up of teenagers who had never heard of the Amiga let alone 2D games :-(

Last word was the Rebels were trying to get Celine Dione (a regular coke user) to support their cause by banning the use of "The heart will go on" at US Military funerals thereby undermining the public spirit and lowering morale in the forces.

[AJS]

at do you expect for 2019?

Well i'd be 10 years older and 10 years nearer retirement and hopefully 10 times richer :-D

My Micro A1 will be deemed a " Classic Amiga" and will sell for £10,000+ pounds on Z-bay  ( Ebay finally sold itself in 2016 even though it had a zero feedback rating)

[detz]

Rob wrote:
Priceless

hahah, yes!

I was talking about this only yesterday:

"Oh no, the government want's to track your every move, know where you've been, who your friends ar...ooohhh I was at that party!" *tag* *tag *tag*...

heheh...


My prediction for 2019 is that Ainc/Hyperion (I can't keep up...) releases OS4 for Mac Mini, and wonders why it isn't the success 2008's forum posts suggest it should be  :lol:

[arkanoid]

Rob wrote:
Priceless

haha, oh the irony! All the govenment need do is combine this ID card with someform of "social networking" technology and those {bleep}s would be up for it. especially if it involved them being able to plaster half naked pics of themselves posing in front of a mirror :idea:

[HopperJF]

AeroMan wrote:
No, It is not a typo. I don´t expect things to change that much for the next year, but in 10 years they will for sure.

I´m not talking about hopes and dreams. I would like to know what are your feelings about how the computer world will be in the future.

Who would say in 1988 that Amiga would be dead by 2008 and PCs would represent 99% of the computer base?

In terms of at least the US, it was clear by 88 that the PC had won the corporate/businses market, so it probably wouldn't have generated as many frowns as you think though perhaps maybe over the 99% figure but then that is wrong anyway, the figure is closer to 90-95% when you take into account the Mac and alternative platforms

Anyway back on topic I predict that in 10 years time Internet Computing will become the standard, that is more applications that are accessed online than via the computer itself.
I also predict solid state drives will become the standard and be much more affordable, replacing the tradional hard disk.

I think the Amiga will still be chugging along happily as a hobbyist platform. If it was going to die out completely, it would have done by now. As long as we have us users keeping it going then companies will give us new products now and again. I can't realistically seeing Amiga recapture the glory of the early 90s. Those days are gone though optimistically I predict that Microsoft's dominance of the market will be severely reduced with more companies in particular switching to Linux and open source systems.

[HopperJF]

Ilwrath wrote:
As much as I hate to type it...  By 2019, I'd expect home computer OWNERSHIP to be on the decline.  

That's not to say home computer USAGE will drop, but I expect more and more of the subscription/rental model will be taking over.  

People are pretty much fed up with owning PCs.  They crash, get infected, and are generally a nuisance.  Besides us geeks who know how it all works, who really wants all the hassle and expense of really owning a system?  

Much like the Cable/Sat TV market, I see hardware becoming secondary, almost to the point of invisibility.  Most people will simply pay a monthly fee to use their web browsing, word processing, and email package on whatever hardware box is included in the subscription.

An absolutely dreadful idea, one of the reasons I see people flocking to Linux in years to come.
Typical moneymaking mayhem from M$  :madashell:

[HopperJF]

Manu wrote:
I predict by 2019 we have even more computing power in our homes than before. Windows is still the leading one. We all own our hardware because it's so cheap. Processing power is way beoynd what we need if we don't do games etc.

I will predict that following the trend of the last 20 years, no matter how much power your computer has, the latest Windows version will hog it all and slow it to that familiar sluggish level of responsiveness!  :-)

[persia]

Well Microsoft has 90%+ of the market, even with the disaster that is Vista, even with everyone packing iPods and iPhones, Mac's share of the personal computer market can't be over 5%.  So I suspect nothing is going to stop Microsoft.  

We are on the path to convergence, telephones (if landlines still exist in 2019), video recorders, TVs aren't really distinct devices anymore and there will likely be one box in your house that provides your non-mobile phone, TV, game and internet needs.

[Schoenfeld]

I predict that by 2019, only "classic cars" will have gearboxes. By then, all cars with an internal combustion engine will use a generator and electric motors instead of the mechanical gearbox.

Computer-wise, we'll see more integration, wider data paths, and despite all the integration (gfx, cpu and memory controller all on-chip), the distributed computing approach will be followed, resembling what nature teaches us: the world is designed as a parallel thing. Parallel computing is the logical step. Object-oriented programming is already going into the direction: Every piece of data has it's own piece of code that works on the data. This transformed to hardware will mean that memory and CPU power will melt, so in layman's terms, the data knows how to operate on itself.

You might guess it already: Such hardware is re-configurable, based on what FPGAs are today - with the slight difference of much more logic cells, partial real-time re-configuration and way higher frequencies. We won't have CPUs any more, but myriads of execution units that can either team up to work on a single thread (resembling the classic "central" processing approach), or work in extremely simple threads in parallel on their own local memory.

Privacy will be a thing of the past. Encryption will be totally illegal. If you don't already own a mobile phone, there will be some law that forces you to have an electronic device - for your protection of course. You must be trackable, in case you need medical help or your beloved ones need to contact you. Leaving the trackable zone, for example on a weekend trip out in the country, is a felony if you don't announce it on a social networking site two weeks in advance.

Since Asian and middle eastern countries are sitting on so many US Dollars, the federal reserve bank has found a clever way of de-valuing those foreign assets during the transition from the US Dollar to the "Amero", the American equivalent of the Euro. Foreigners are not allowed to buy land in the US, and foreign stockholders are taxed extreme premiums in order to slow down the rate of the US economy being bought up by non-US citizens.

Oh, did I mention the electric car revolution of 2015, that brought the US car makers into extreme problems, because all the import cars run for a third of the cost per mile?

Jens

[tone007]

I dislike your vision, Mr. Schoenfeld.

[Ancalimon]

I thought time ended on 21 December 2012   So play as much as you can with your Amiga's while you have time!

[darksun9210]

is that the 32bit roll over on the internal clock? yours has a battery still? :lol:

not sure about 2019, but all we've seen recently is evolution of existing tech. no revolution.
the gradual dumbing down of the general populace by mass media. people see no value in life unless they work/study/shop/watch TV. leading me to think that people who think "outside the box" (for the "box" read - state decided and controlled normality), will be labled as deviants and monitored.
wondering if it will be against the law soon to have my wireless network locked down, and if full drive encryption will be outlawed.

thinking about it, to johnny government, a fully encrypted NTFS drive and an amiga SFS/FFS formatted drive probably look the same, so running old systems to "stay off the grid" may become popular, and outlawed...  :lol:

but by then, i'll probably have kids just hitting the first year of school, and not really care beyond struggling though life in general... which is just what they want!  :-D

[Schoenfeld]

tone007 wrote:
I dislike your vision, Mr. Schoenfeld.

I can totally understand that, but being a science fiction fan, I try to think into the direction that current&past happenings suggest.

I think you don't dislike the technical stuff, as my visions on cheap-to-operate-electric cars and computers way faster than what we have today are not all that negative. I can't back it up with any "myriads of execution units"-research, but to me, it's a logical step.

Cars: 2015 is the date when the Nickel-metal-hydride patent, which is held by Chevron, is void. That type of battery is IMHO the only type that can be used on an electric car, as lead-acid is too heavy, and Li-Ion doesn't live long enough to justify an investment of 15-20k USD into a battery pack, as such an investment would have to last "a lifetime of the car". Li-Ion fades away after a few hundred charge/discharge cycles, but Nimh has no memory effect.

Gearboxes: Look at the Volvo ReCharge concept (based on the C30 platform). It runs, and it takes 30% less gas, just because the engine is always running at ideal RPMs and there are no losses in a mechanical gearbox.

This leads over to my economic forecasts: All the innovations in the automotive sector come from Europe, so the US auto makers will either have to license technology, or quit keeping your own engineers down, like they did with the EV1 (just watch the documentary "who killed the electric car").

Encryption and tracking: Read the "patriot act" and check what your "Real ID" is about. Biometric data from every citizen, your home can be searched at any time, your communication can be watched any time, and you can even be held for god knows how long with just the suspicion of being a terrorist. If it's not coming, you might as well say that it's already there. We have the same here in Germany: Biometric data in our passports and RFID chips embedded in them, and a law that requires telecommunication companies to make an encryption-free access to their telephone switches for our secret service. The interface is even described in the law.

Currency: There once was a gold standard, frequently established, then lifted, as "required". Last time the gold standard was lifted was after the French had deliberately reduced US influence on their economy in 1971. Read all about the Bretton Woods system on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

Transported into today, it's the most logical thing to anticipate that the US invents a method of de-valuing the US Dollars that all the exporting nations (exporting to the US) are sitting on. It's already being done with inflation (extremely low interest rates), but since the "Amero" is hardly known and not covered by the media, I expect this to play a major part in ripping foreign investors off, like it has been done before.

The Amero is currently a hypothetical currency of the North American currency union - read all about that on Wikipedia as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_american_currency_union

As for a timeline, 2019 might be a little early for the Amero. A key figure in the architecture of the Euro was former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl - first elected in 1982, served 4 terms (16 years) and in 2002, his (partial) work became a reality with the introduction of the Euro. From the EU contracts (Maastricht 1992) to introduction of the Euro, it was only 10 years. However, the first European contracts have been signed in the 1950s, so it might take a little longer for the Amero to become a reality. It's still worth some thought about what might happen, and what would be the best strategy not to be among those who are affected in a negative way, as any transition like that has winners and losers.

Jens

[Lorraine]

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[mikrucio]

more prostitutes!