How can you conclude "IBM will be outgunning them performance wise" then you haven't satisfied "don't know where Intel will be"?
I didn't conclude, I said "I suspect".
New CPUs are always weak due to weak compilers, P4 was a case in point, it was outperformed by the P3 at the begining but then Intel got into gear, shrunk the die, added enhancements and got a better compiler it started to fly.
The 970 has shown it is has legs despite the fact it's brand new. When it gets a die shrink, better compiler etc. I think things will be very interesting.
The next generation (980 I assume) based on the POWER5 will hopefully get the same enhancements that chip shall have - POWER5 is expected to perform 4X faster than POWER4.
As for where intel will be - well the next gen P4 is now said to be at 100Watts and Intel are talking about water cooling. If they can't cool the P4 they'll not be able to scale it. Indeed, notice how the clock rate increases have slowed recently.
"Power 4" out guns "Pentium 4" in price… Some people didn’t learn from Alpha > Pentium Classic days….
Problem with the Alpha was although they had the best technology DEC didn't know how to sell it. IBM on the other hand do know how to sell which is why things they are spending millions developing things like POWER5 and POWER6 - BTW they are not optimied for speed, they use larger transistors than usual for extra reliability.
Alpha was a market failure, it's technology was -and still is- the best going, which is why Intel were so keen to get their hands on the Alpha team.