tone007 wrote:
I dislike your vision, Mr. Schoenfeld.
I can totally understand that, but being a science fiction fan, I try to think into the direction that current&past happenings suggest.
I think you don't dislike the technical stuff, as my visions on cheap-to-operate-electric cars and computers way faster than what we have today are not all that negative. I can't back it up with any "myriads of execution units"-research, but to me, it's a logical step.
Cars: 2015 is the date when the Nickel-metal-hydride patent, which is held by Chevron, is void. That type of battery is IMHO the only type that can be used on an electric car, as lead-acid is too heavy, and Li-Ion doesn't live long enough to justify an investment of 15-20k USD into a battery pack, as such an investment would have to last "a lifetime of the car". Li-Ion fades away after a few hundred charge/discharge cycles, but Nimh has no memory effect.
Gearboxes: Look at the Volvo ReCharge concept (based on the C30 platform). It runs, and it takes 30% less gas, just because the engine is always running at ideal RPMs and there are no losses in a mechanical gearbox.
This leads over to my economic forecasts: All the innovations in the automotive sector come from Europe, so the US auto makers will either have to license technology, or quit keeping your own engineers down, like they did with the EV1 (just watch the documentary "who killed the electric car").
Encryption and tracking: Read the "patriot act" and check what your "Real ID" is about. Biometric data from every citizen, your home can be searched at any time, your communication can be watched any time, and you can even be held for god knows how long with just the suspicion of being a terrorist. If it's not coming, you might as well say that it's already there. We have the same here in Germany: Biometric data in our passports and RFID chips embedded in them, and a law that requires telecommunication companies to make an encryption-free access to their telephone switches for our secret service. The interface is even described in the law.
Currency: There once was a gold standard, frequently established, then lifted, as "required". Last time the gold standard was lifted was after the French had deliberately reduced US influence on their economy in 1971. Read all about the Bretton Woods system on Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_systemTransported into today, it's the most logical thing to anticipate that the US invents a method of de-valuing the US Dollars that all the exporting nations (exporting to the US) are sitting on. It's already being done with inflation (extremely low interest rates), but since the "Amero" is hardly known and not covered by the media, I expect this to play a major part in ripping foreign investors off, like it has been done before.
The Amero is currently a hypothetical currency of the North American currency union - read all about that on Wikipedia as well:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_american_currency_unionAs for a timeline, 2019 might be a little early for the Amero. A key figure in the architecture of the Euro was former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl - first elected in 1982, served 4 terms (16 years) and in 2002, his (partial) work became a reality with the introduction of the Euro. From the EU contracts (Maastricht 1992) to introduction of the Euro, it was only 10 years. However, the first European contracts have been signed in the 1950s, so it might take a little longer for the Amero to become a reality. It's still worth some thought about what might happen, and what would be the best strategy not to be among those who are affected in a negative way, as any transition like that has winners and losers.
Jens