Hum,
The probability for impact is between 99.8% and 100%.
The impact location has been narrowed down to 21N, 33E, at 2:46 UT, which is in in northern Sudan.
The asteroid will track from the northwest, so observers in Europe, northern Africa could possibly see the atmospheric entry phase.
Depending on the composition, the atmospheric impact and breakup should release ~ 1 kiloton of energy, (The size has been narrowed down to 2 - 4 metres).