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AuthorTopic: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming  (Read 3751 times)

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Offline whabang

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2011, 06:50:37 PM »
Aye, and Via's line-up cover the places where the Atom doesn't cut it. On the other hand, nVidia might be trying to get the contract for the CPU's in the next generation gaming consoles. I can imagine they got a big hole in their wallet after everyone chose the PPC/Ati route for the current ones.
Beating the dead horse since 2002.
 

Offline vidarh

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2011, 09:12:55 PM »
Quote from: the_leander;604378
As much as I have a soft spot for alternative cpu archs, ARM has less and less of a place outside of cellphones and embedded sectors


I doubt ARM worries about that, though - analysts expects around 5 billion ARM cores to be shipped this year (fewer CPU's, since more and more of the designs are dual core).

While they may seem to have been pushed out of places like the desktop, keep in mind that the desktop and laptops make up a smaller and smaller percentage of the computing market.

Cellphones, tablets and embedded devices is where the volume is, and both cellphones and tablets are eating their way up into spaces where laptops and desktops ruled before. Look at the newly announced Motorola Atrix - a phone that docs with a laptop "shell", as well as a number of phones that now support bluetooth keyboards.

As a result, we might very well see the bottom falling out of the desktop and laptop market very soon, with both of them relegated to the high end of the market, with smart phones and tablets becoming the only computers for a lot of people. And that sector is overwhelmingly ARM dominated, with 90%+ of the cores shipped.

EDIT: Oh, yes, forgot to mention: The Atrix *does* use the Nvidia Tegra
« Last Edit: January 06, 2011, 09:18:17 PM by vidarh »
 

Offline the_leander

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2011, 10:46:35 PM »
Quote from: vidarh;604431

As a result, we might very well see the bottom falling out of the desktop and laptop market very soon, with both of them relegated to the high end of the market, with smart phones and tablets becoming the only computers for a lot of people. And that sector is overwhelmingly ARM dominated, with 90%+ of the cores shipped.


Doubtful, what is being shown is that whilst traditional big box stuff isn't selling as well, all in ones, so called life style PCs are doing rather well for a variety of reasons. Maybe this will change, but I think Atom will certainly make up a large proportion of the market. It's not particularly fast, but it's fast enough for most people, especially in it's dualcore encarnation.

As for your figures about the number of cores sold, only a tiny proportion of them will be anything other than low end.

Quote from: vidarh;604431

EDIT: Oh, yes, forgot to mention: The Atrix *does* use the Nvidia Tegra


Looking through El Reg, it seems a couple of the tablets being displayed at CES are going to use it, so I spoke too soon. However, Tegra has been around for what, 3 years now?

Still waiting for the software to catch up though.
Blessed Be,
Alan Fisher - the_leander

[SIGPIC]http://www.extropia.co.uk/theleander/[/SIGPIC]
 

Offline nicholas

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #18 on: January 07, 2011, 12:47:45 AM »
Quote from: whabang;604370
Bah, LXDE is big and bloated! I use a pure Openbox install with Guake as a terminal emulator. Only reason for having X is that I want a graphical web browser. ;)

You are aware you are boasting over what a woman in her 30's uses on her netbook aren't you? :lol:
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Offline vidarh

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2011, 09:23:04 AM »
Quote from: the_leander;604454
Doubtful, what is being shown is that whilst traditional big box stuff isn't selling as well, all in ones, so called life style PCs are doing rather well for a variety of reasons.


They are still being outsold massively by smartphones. Smartphones that now more an more commonly can either hook up to larger keyboards and/or TVs/monitors. It removes the need for a more complicated computers for a fairly large segment of users that only wants to download/listen to music, surf the web, check their e-mail and write the odd letter etc.

Quote

As for your figures about the number of cores sold, only a tiny proportion of them will be anything other than low end.


That's part of the point: The very low end now is so powerful that more and more people don't *need* any more. The average price for laptops sold for example has gone through the floor, and even that wasn't enough to stave off the rise of netbooks.

Quote

Still waiting for the software to catch up though.


It doesn't need to. Most users of these devices are fall in one of two categories: The ones that are light computer users only using it for a relatively small set of functions, and the ones that use it as a secondary device. Both of these are catered for by Android (or iOS or whatever floats their boat). As for the rest of the potential market? With Windows for ARM, no matter what we might think of Windows, most people will be satisfied...

Notice also how the Motorola phone also has an alternative docking station that lets you connect the phone to TV or monitor. Effectively they are targeting the rapidly growing segment that is willing to shell out far more than the average laptop price on "just a phone" but that might want the added capabilities occasionally.

If I was a desktop or laptop maker targeting the low end, I'd be very, very nervous about what's coming.
 

Offline countzero

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2011, 10:28:41 AM »
Quote from: vidarh;604573

With Windows for ARM, no matter what we might think of Windows, most people will be satisfied...


it seems name of the game is Windows/Arm vs ChromeOS/Intel. :afro:
I believe in mt. Fuji
 

Offline nicholas

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2011, 01:40:11 PM »
Quote from: the_leander;604341
I hope you've got some benchmarks to back that up. Because every review of the HD2 I've seen has said much the same: Good hardware let down by piss poor software.

Also, comparing a phone to a netbook which is doing a whole hell of a lot more, really?

See attached screen shot, HD2 is the bar at the top.

http://www.abload.de/image.php?img=quadranty9dw.png
« Last Edit: January 07, 2011, 01:42:17 PM by nicholas »
“Een rezhim-i eshghalgar-i Quds bayad az sahneh-i ruzgar mahv shaved.” - Imam Ayatollah Sayyed  Ruhollah Khomeini
 

Offline the_leander

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #22 on: January 07, 2011, 03:59:07 PM »
Quote from: vidarh;604573
They are still being outsold massively by smartphones.


Ok I'm going to need a citation for that.

Quote from: vidarh;604573

That's part of the point: The very low end now is so powerful that more and more people don't *need* any more. The average price for laptops sold for example has gone through the floor, and even that wasn't enough to stave off the rise of netbooks.


Erm, entry level laptop prices have been at around the £300 mark for at least the past 5 years. You can get low end laptops and desktops that is cheaper than a netbook.

As for the rise of the netbook, from what I've seen the sales of them have started to level out.

Quote from: vidarh;604573
With Windows for ARM, no matter what we might think of Windows, most people will be satisfied...


Not if their favourite programs can run on them, games especially.

Quote from: vidarh;604573

Notice also how the Motorola phone also has an alternative docking station that lets you connect the phone to TV or monitor. Effectively they are targeting the rapidly growing segment that is willing to shell out far more than the average laptop price on "just a phone" but that might want the added capabilities occasionally.


Seen it. I've played with such phones, the experience is less than stellar currently.

Quote from: vidarh;604573

If I was a desktop or laptop maker targeting the low end, I'd be very, very nervous about what's coming.


Perhaps. But as I said, the software just isn't there yet. And yes, I'm including android in that. Maybe Android 3.0 will be the one that sorts it all. But in all honesty I'm not holding my breath.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2011, 04:02:25 PM by the_leander »
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[SIGPIC]http://www.extropia.co.uk/theleander/[/SIGPIC]
 

Offline runequester

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Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #23 on: January 07, 2011, 04:21:50 PM »
Some competition in the market place will do everybody some good.
 

Offline whabang

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #24 on: January 07, 2011, 05:50:57 PM »
Quote from: nicholas;604517
You are aware you are boasting over what a woman in her 30's uses on her netbook aren't you? :lol:
Well, I wouldn't be hanging around AO if I weren't a geek! :lol:
Beating the dead horse since 2002.
 

Offline vidarh

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #25 on: January 07, 2011, 05:58:25 PM »
Quote from: the_leander;604621
Ok I'm going to need a citation for that.

These are 2009 numbers, not much in terms of 2010 numbers available yet:
Smartphone sales at 172 million vs. global PC sales at 66 million in Q2, so if we extrapolate those numbers to all of 2009, which we can't be sure is reliable, we'd get 262 million, so I guess I those numbers don't back that one up...

But these look better: Q2 2010 seems to indicate 70+ million smartphones a quarter

EDIT: Doh. Updated to reflect that the PC sales numbers was for one quarter.
EDIT2: Hah, but growing at a ridiculous rate.

Quote
Erm, entry level laptop prices have been at around the £300 mark for at least the past 5 years. You can get low end laptops and desktops that is cheaper than a netbook.

Entry level, yes, but the issue is *average* laptop prices. PC manufacturers have been increasingly squeezed as everyone outside of the Mac market buy cheaper laptops than they used to on average. This is why profits from PC sales for the major PC manufacturers gets dwarfed by profits from Apples lower sales volumes (even if you exclude their iTunes, iPod and iPhone business).

Quote
Not if their favourite programs can run on them, games especially.

The average PC users don't play high end titles on their PC's. They are at most casual gamers, and more and more of that market is being taken over by phone.

Quote
Seen it. I've played with such phones, the experience is less than stellar currently.

It doesn't need to be stellar. It needs to be good enough for someone that needs to use Facebook and write a letter and run iTunes.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2011, 06:24:00 PM by vidarh »
 

Offline the_leander

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #26 on: January 07, 2011, 06:18:24 PM »
Quote from: vidarh;604664
These are 2009 numbers, not much in terms of 2010 numbers available yet:
Smartphone sales at 172 million vs. global PC sales at 66 million.


Ouch. More than adequate to prove your point.

Quote from: vidarh;604664

Entry level, yes, but the issue is *average* laptop prices. PC manufacturers have been increasingly squeezed as everyone outside of the Mac market buy cheaper laptops than they used to on average.


One of the factors you do have to take into account is the recession, which is going to do it's own thing with regard to how many people buy higher end kit. The question will be will the averages go back up again once the economy is in a better state?

Quote from: vidarh;604664

The average PC users don't play high end titles on their PC's. They are at most casual gamers, and more and more of that market is being taken over by phone.


That isn't taking into account their current investment, they might not buy high end games, but they still buy games, if they buy a new computer and suddenly all their games stop working, they're going to be hella pissed. Consider how much negative press Microsoft got due to things breaking in Vista, now apply that to 100% of their current software.

Quote from: vidarh;604664

It doesn't need to be stellar.

I think I might have understated it. By "less than stellar" I mean significantly more painful to use than the Wii browser, which is pants.
Blessed Be,
Alan Fisher - the_leander

[SIGPIC]http://www.extropia.co.uk/theleander/[/SIGPIC]
 

Offline nicholas

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #27 on: January 09, 2011, 02:05:12 AM »
Quote from: the_leander;604621
Perhaps. But as I said, the software just isn't there yet. And yes, I'm including android in that. Maybe Android 3.0 will be the one that sorts it all. But in all honesty I'm not holding my breath.


Android 2.2/2.3 are fine and dandy for moi, but just for you Alan.... :)

http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/05/google-shows-off-android-3-0-the-entirely-for-tablet-honeycom/
“Een rezhim-i eshghalgar-i Quds bayad az sahneh-i ruzgar mahv shaved.” - Imam Ayatollah Sayyed  Ruhollah Khomeini
 

Offline Karlos

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #28 on: January 09, 2011, 02:17:01 AM »
Yeah, no major complaints with 2.2 so far and that's on a fairly entry level smartphone.
int p; // A
 

Offline nicholas

Re: ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming
« Reply #29 on: January 09, 2011, 05:52:43 PM »
Quote from: Karlos;604961
Yeah, no major complaints with 2.2 so far and that's on a fairly entry level smartphone.


It's total modularity is very Amiga-like and dare I say more of a successor to the Amiga philosophy than any other OS on the market today.
“Een rezhim-i eshghalgar-i Quds bayad az sahneh-i ruzgar mahv shaved.” - Imam Ayatollah Sayyed  Ruhollah Khomeini