ARM as a high-powered desktop CPU: Did not see that coming

[the_leander]

From OSNews: http://www.osnews.com/story/24209/NVIDIA_Announces_ARM_CPU_for_Desktop_Server_HPC

And Microsoft is bringing Windows to ARM. This is getting weird.

Nvidia have been banging on about their tegra gear for years.

Nothing has ever come of it, virtually nothing uses it afaik and the AC100 Toshiba netbook which came out recently and was reviewed by El Reg found that the software is years away from being usable.

Even MIPS has better software support.

So as far as ARM on the desktop goes... Lol, sorry, but it won't happen. Even in the NAS and home server/STB markets ARM is being pushed out by x86, specifically Atom.

It simply doesn't have either the software or the performance.

[the_leander]

The 1GHz Qualcomm in this HD2 I'm typing from wipes the floor with the almost 2GHz Atom in my wife's Acer netbook and it's several generations old now.

I hope you've got some benchmarks to back that up. Because every review of the HD2 I've seen has said much the same: Good hardware let down by piss poor software.

Also, comparing a phone to a netbook which is doing a whole hell of a lot more, really?

[the_leander]

This runs UAE perfectly without dropping a frame and perfect audio.

Again, citation needed.

The netbook can't do the same.

Right, and what else is the netbook doing? Is it running Vista or Win7, for instance?

[the_leander]

You can see for yourself next time you come for a curry.

Hmm! And is my shout iirc...

Gonna have to book some time off in the none too distant future

Exactly the same as the phone is. Linux.

Goodo, but what kind? Some lightweight distro like crunchbang or some full fat distro like Kubuntu?

[the_leander]

uh, you do realise that Project Denver is not Tegra. Their new chip is nothing to do with Tegra at all.

And you do realise that for all of that, Tegra throughout it's entire life was used in sweet fa. Just like it's predecessor Project Denver is likely to share the same fate unfortunately. The market for these things has all but moved on.

As much as I have a soft spot for alternative cpu archs, ARM has less and less of a place outside of cellphones and embedded sectors - neither of which need something for the most part along the lines of Tegra or Denver.

Atom has all but subsumed the high performance STB/Nas/home server markets and when coupled with Nvidia's ION2 chipset makes for a remarkably potent system, especially in it's dual core variants.

[the_leander]

As a result, we might very well see the bottom falling out of the desktop and laptop market very soon, with both of them relegated to the high end of the market, with smart phones and tablets becoming the only computers for a lot of people. And that sector is overwhelmingly ARM dominated, with 90%+ of the cores shipped.

Doubtful, what is being shown is that whilst traditional big box stuff isn't selling as well, all in ones, so called life style PCs are doing rather well for a variety of reasons. Maybe this will change, but I think Atom will certainly make up a large proportion of the market. It's not particularly fast, but it's fast enough for most people, especially in it's dualcore encarnation.

As for your figures about the number of cores sold, only a tiny proportion of them will be anything other than low end.

EDIT: Oh, yes, forgot to mention: The Atrix *does* use the Nvidia Tegra

Looking through El Reg, it seems a couple of the tablets being displayed at CES are going to use it, so I spoke too soon. However, Tegra has been around for what, 3 years now?

Still waiting for the software to catch up though.

[the_leander]

They are still being outsold massively by smartphones.

Ok I'm going to need a citation for that.

That's part of the point: The very low end now is so powerful that more and more people don't *need* any more. The average price for laptops sold for example has gone through the floor, and even that wasn't enough to stave off the rise of netbooks.

Erm, entry level laptop prices have been at around the £300 mark for at least the past 5 years. You can get low end laptops and desktops that is cheaper than a netbook.

As for the rise of the netbook, from what I've seen the sales of them have started to level out.

With Windows for ARM, no matter what we might think of Windows, most people will be satisfied...

Not if their favourite programs can run on them, games especially.

Notice also how the Motorola phone also has an alternative docking station that lets you connect the phone to TV or monitor. Effectively they are targeting the rapidly growing segment that is willing to shell out far more than the average laptop price on "just a phone" but that might want the added capabilities occasionally.

Seen it. I've played with such phones, the experience is less than stellar currently.

If I was a desktop or laptop maker targeting the low end, I'd be very, very nervous about what's coming.

Perhaps. But as I said, the software just isn't there yet. And yes, I'm including android in that. Maybe Android 3.0 will be the one that sorts it all. But in all honesty I'm not holding my breath.

[the_leander]

These are 2009 numbers, not much in terms of 2010 numbers available yet:
Smartphone sales at 172 million vs. global PC sales at 66 million.

Ouch. More than adequate to prove your point.

Entry level, yes, but the issue is *average* laptop prices. PC manufacturers have been increasingly squeezed as everyone outside of the Mac market buy cheaper laptops than they used to on average.

One of the factors you do have to take into account is the recession, which is going to do it's own thing with regard to how many people buy higher end kit. The question will be will the averages go back up again once the economy is in a better state?

The average PC users don't play high end titles on their PC's. They are at most casual gamers, and more and more of that market is being taken over by phone.

That isn't taking into account their current investment, they might not buy high end games, but they still buy games, if they buy a new computer and suddenly all their games stop working, they're going to be hella pissed. Consider how much negative press Microsoft got due to things breaking in Vista, now apply that to 100% of their current software.

It doesn't need to be stellar.

I think I might have understated it. By "less than stellar" I mean significantly more painful to use than the Wii browser, which is pants.