Windows Phone - Dead man walking

[agami]

Worst. Train. Of. Thought. Ever.
Windows Phone global market share is 3% ergo Microsoft should keep making handsets and tablets and dump the OS for Android?

The only purpose of that article is to create these kinds of conversation threads all over the net. We've all just helped COMPUTERWORLD secure some advertising.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
Yes, you can take the global mobile phone market size and look at how many users have Windows Phone 7.x/8.x and take the 3% figure and paint a dire picture.
But when you take the global mobile phone subscription numbers being 6.9 billion    that's around 207 million for Microsoft.
http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats/a#subscribers

But even if you focused on just smartphones and tablets and assume everyone has destroyed their old smartphone and tablet, that is still some 1.2 billion units and Microsoft's 3% share of that is 36 million.
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24645514
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2674215

Now you might say that 36 million units is way below what Microsoft is used to, or a number that shareholders will not tolerate. But before you do, consider that:

Microsoft's original Xbox console sold 24.75 million units globally (the first Xbox ran at a complete loss), and the Xbox 360 sold 59,4 million units globally over 9 years.
http://www.statisticbrain.com/xbox-statistics/

Like it or not, Microsofts Phone and Tablet business is more aligned to how the Xbox division operates, than how the Windows and Office divisions operate. Meaning:
It will take time for a firm and stable market position to be established, and
Microsoft will not be a dominant force in this market segment.

The Globe
The other issue with the moronic post over at COMPUTERWORLD is that the global market is perceived as homogenous. The fact is that whilst Microsoft's Windows Phone smartphones are sold almost everywhere, Microsoft's marketing efforts would be focused on key segments within key geographies. One would have to have access to internally distributed reports to see how well MS is doing in this regard. For all anyone outside of that circle knows, they may hold a respectable 10+% in the markets they care about.

The Xbox does not sell equally well everywhere. It does very well in key markets. Yes, it would be great if all the people in the BRIC countries were the target for a Windows Phone 8.x device. That's just unrealistic.

Microsoft + Android = $$$
So lets say that Microsoft dump Windows Phone OS and move to Android. What, all of a sudden everyone will throw out their Sony, Samsung, LG, HTC, Motorola, Huawei, ASUS, Nexus (made by one of the aforementioned) smartphone and tablet and buy a Nokia (or whatever Microsoft end up calling it) smartphone and tablet?

How many of those people bought the Android based phone because the Lumia didn't have Android?

Buy suggesting to move to Android the moron is suggesting that Microsoft pull out of the mobility space all together. Sure, they'll stop spending all that money on smartphones and tablets and OS development, but they also won't be making any money in that segment and they certainly won't be solidifying a place at the post-PC table. Xbox and Office will support the company? I don't think so.

And Lastly
There only reason I didn't buy a Windows Phone smartphone just several weeks ago is because there is no Pebble app. But I was actually keen on it. I already use a Samsung Tabletbook with Windows 8 Pro so having a Windows Phone 8 companion device would have been nice.

And I find with most people it is the lack of apps. Sure all the key ones are there as they have been well established: Twitter, Facebook, Skype (Microsoft), Evernote, Dropbox, etc. But something new comes out and you know that more often than not it will be on iOS first, Android second, and at some point it will get to Windows Phone.

First you get the apps, then you get the users, then you get the money. Whilst there is a catch 22 in there with the users and apps, MS should not wait for this to occur organically. The best money they can spend is making all the most popular and highly sought after apps a first party development or co-development priority. Like Apple did in the early days of the iPhone.