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AuthorTopic: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling  (Read 5685 times)

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Offline nicholas

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #105 on: October 29, 2013, 11:47:52 AM »
Quote from: stefcep2;751342
i know you've said you did some "content creation", the buzz phrase people seem to use, on a tablet, but really very, very few people create anything on tablets and phones.  For the vast majority, these are simply the hardware to "consume content".

I still have no compelling reason to own a tablet or a smart phone- my latop, desktop and ancient nokia phone lets me do all I need to do, and then some.


There are many excellent music production apps for tablets from the "big names".  Here's just one of them:

http://www.native-instruments.com/en/products/maschine/maschine-for-ios/imaschine/

Not a replacement for a desktop/laptop but the technology is getting there rapidly.
“Een rezhim-i eshghalgar-i Quds bayad az sahneh-i ruzgar mahv shaved.” - Imam Ayatollah Sayyed  Ruhollah Khomeini
 

Offline persia

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #106 on: October 29, 2013, 11:53:18 AM »
iOS is basically a single user version of OS X, if you look under the bonnet.  Android is a Linux kernel with a Java front end.  Blackberry is based on QNX, which Amiga OS should have been had they not botched it.
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Offline vidarh

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #107 on: October 29, 2013, 02:53:41 PM »
There's really only one way to respond to this:

Anyone who bets against size reduction for the computers have not been paying attention the last 60 years.


Devices that integrate a screen may grow in size to accommodate the screen size in some cases, but all else keep shrinking.

We used to have full towers in computer stores. Now mainstream electronics stores often don't even sell computers in small ATX cases; a substantial number of the models come "baked in" to monitors, and there's a rapidly growing market for "TV sticks" that are basically Linux/Android ARM computers the size of credit cards or less, that you plug directly into your HDMI slot on your TV/monitor with no cable, and more and more mobile devices supports MHL or other ways of wirelessly mirroring the screen.

Meanwhile the desktop market as a whole is stagnant, and the laptop market isn't doing much better.

There is basically no reason to assume that these trends won't continue:

 * Devices will get smaller, as capability per square cm grows faster than most users needs.

 * Devices will increasingly be wireless; even many desktops these days use wireless keyboards and mice, and alternatives for wireless connection to screens are becoming more and more common.

 * Mobile devices will get more features of typical desktops as their performance and capacity increases, and wireless connectivity improves. You can already install apps that let you run full Linux desktops on most Android devices, exporting the display over the network via VNC etc., and you can expect that with things like Miracast those capabilities will improve.

It will not take long before the typical mobile sized device is as fast as what typical users expects of desktops and laptops - a large part of the reason the desktop and laptop market is stagnating is that people are not replacing them very often any more, as they are "fast enough" for most users. When mobile sized devices are fast enough, and wireless display and input support is good enough, there's very little reason for most users to want a typical "PC" device, over a range of variations from the "TV stick" to mobile devices that connect wirelessly to their TV or "laptop shells", or over tablets with docks.

So while not all of us will use our tablets or phones as our main computing device, you should expect size of the "computing element" whether embedded in a larger device or standalone, for mainstream users, to keep shrinking, and you should expect to not need a cable to it other than for power.

Of course there will be exceptions. There will always be people who need more than average for whatever reason (says the guy with a 15 drive slot Lian Li tower case under the stairs). But that will be fringe uses.
 

Offline Thorham

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #108 on: October 29, 2013, 04:15:21 PM »
Quote from: Kesa;751350
OK then. I'll try and dumb it down.

"I think you two are looking at it from different perspectives. It really  depends if you consider smartphones/tablets as being the same as desktops/laptops or not. To me  it's Apples and Oranges - they have nothing in common."

If you mean desktops and laptops, why didn't you just write that in the first place? Instead you write computers, which includes anything from the largest super computers to the smallest 8bit hobby boards.

Quote from: Kesa;751350
Yes, to use your logic smartphones/tablets are computers the same as Apples and Oranges are both fruit. But do you consider Apples and Oranges to be the same even though they are both fruit? Personally i don't.

Apples and oranges have a few things in common, and so do desktops and mobiles.

Maybe I'm just looking into these things to much :)
 

Offline nicholas

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #109 on: October 29, 2013, 04:16:01 PM »
Quote from: vidarh;751369
There's really only one way to respond to this:

Anyone who bets against size reduction for the computers have not been paying attention the last 60 years.


Devices that integrate a screen may grow in size to accommodate the screen size in some cases, but all else keep shrinking.

We used to have full towers in computer stores. Now mainstream electronics stores often don't even sell computers in small ATX cases; a substantial number of the models come "baked in" to monitors, and there's a rapidly growing market for "TV sticks" that are basically Linux/Android ARM computers the size of credit cards or less, that you plug directly into your HDMI slot on your TV/monitor with no cable, and more and more mobile devices supports MHL or other ways of wirelessly mirroring the screen.

Meanwhile the desktop market as a whole is stagnant, and the laptop market isn't doing much better.

There is basically no reason to assume that these trends won't continue:

 * Devices will get smaller, as capability per square cm grows faster than most users needs.

 * Devices will increasingly be wireless; even many desktops these days use wireless keyboards and mice, and alternatives for wireless connection to screens are becoming more and more common.

 * Mobile devices will get more features of typical desktops as their performance and capacity increases, and wireless connectivity improves. You can already install apps that let you run full Linux desktops on most Android devices, exporting the display over the network via VNC etc., and you can expect that with things like Miracast those capabilities will improve.

It will not take long before the typical mobile sized device is as fast as what typical users expects of desktops and laptops - a large part of the reason the desktop and laptop market is stagnating is that people are not replacing them very often any more, as they are "fast enough" for most users. When mobile sized devices are fast enough, and wireless display and input support is good enough, there's very little reason for most users to want a typical "PC" device, over a range of variations from the "TV stick" to mobile devices that connect wirelessly to their TV or "laptop shells", or over tablets with docks.

So while not all of us will use our tablets or phones as our main computing device, you should expect size of the "computing element" whether embedded in a larger device or standalone, for mainstream users, to keep shrinking, and you should expect to not need a cable to it other than for power.

Of course there will be exceptions. There will always be people who need more than average for whatever reason (says the guy with a 15 drive slot Lian Li tower case under the stairs). But that will be fringe uses.

My Galaxy S4 is at least (if not more) powerful than my dual core Penryn MBP.

I have Cyanogen 10.1 for the phone side and Debian/KDE silently running alongside it in the background ready to ssh into/remote X11 and it works very very well.

This use case will become more and more common in the future.
“Een rezhim-i eshghalgar-i Quds bayad az sahneh-i ruzgar mahv shaved.” - Imam Ayatollah Sayyed  Ruhollah Khomeini
 

Offline hbarcellos

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #110 on: October 29, 2013, 07:07:29 PM »
Quote from: gaula92;750819
Hey hbarcellos, I see you have other tastes beside MSX :D Nice to see you around here, too.

No, I don't blame Microsoft for the fall of Commodore: Commodore was leeching the C64 too long and they didn't invest enough on Amiga technology, being unable to update it properly for almos 10 years. I know the story of the once mighty Commodore and I don't have any love for that company.

But Microsoft has made computing boring, ugly, soul-less, inefficient, stupid and offensive. I hate their products because of the BAD feeling they have, the poor technology decisions they have always taken and their most inner stupidity. They used to call Amiga a "games machine": "huh, colors, music, mouse.. what are those for, gaming?"
They damaged the industry beyond repair with their dominance based on strong and agresive marketing and distribution chain mafia-like politics, to put their atrocious products down our throats.

I HOPE they consume, suffer, die and disapear with pain and hunger.


Gaula92, I was writing you a reply so long, but so long, that Amiga.org punished me by logging me out. I just found that out when I submitted the reply!
Took me a couple of days to recover myself from the trauma, but now I'm finally writing back to you...
L8r we talk about your anti-Microsoft anger, but for now, hey, what's your MRC user name?

Rgds,
HB.
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}~ Powerbook G4 1.67 running MorphOS 3.2 without Wifi.
}~ Powermac Quicksilver 933 with Radeon 9600 XT (r300) LOUDLY running MorphOS 3.2
}~ [MY iOS GAME]: http://goo.gl/S9nWB (Amiga users can get it FREE[/color], just ask me)
 

Offline gertsy

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Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #111 on: October 29, 2013, 09:27:34 PM »
Must be at 14% by now, this aimless thread has been going for so long.
 

Offline hazydave

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #112 on: February 05, 2014, 08:27:30 PM »
Quote from: bloodline;750782
I'm curious why people as so quick to discount iOS and Android as "Not proper operating systems"... It has the feel of someone in the early 80's discounting microcomputers as not real computers...

The truth is, most people use their tablet/iPad/smart phone for almost all day to day computing tasks. The desktop is becoming as much a relic as mainframes and minicomputers have now become.


Of course they're proper operating systems. People who want to defend Windows like to say this, because that makes them feel better... I guess. After all, it's Microsoft themselves that kind of begged the question, with Windows 8. They thrust this WinRT/Metro tablet OS in every desktop user's face, and said "this is the future". They even started calling that subsystem "Modern" and the old, desktop-class Windows "classic" or "legacy".

Truth is, all of Windows is getting their ass kicked by Android. Yes, that's in units, not money. But the real strength of an OS is only one thing: the applications. We Amiga users ought to grok that... doesn't matter if your OS is better, only what you can actually do with it on a practical basis. When you look at those numbers, it's easy to imagine that the mainstream of software support will move away from Windows.

And that's a big problem for Microsoft, because "we are the default, we have the applications" is all that Microsoft has ever had in their favor. They started with absolutely horrible operating system technology. The NT kernel was good, but never any better than the various UNIX-derivatives. Their APIs have been largely sub-standard.. early Windows designers set out not to build the best graphical OS, but the hardest to translate to more rationally designed operating systems (which would include Linux, AmigaOS, MacOS, BeOS, most others). And Microsoft have been arrogant jerks in the way they've supported the end user. In short, a huge number of users are on Windows because they have to be. If they had another viable option -- and that means full support from applications -- more would move than would stick with Windows.

And of course, both Android and iOS are "real" operating systems. After all, Android IS real Linux. It doesn't come with all the stuff you'd want in desktop Linux, but it's the same underlying OS that powers embedded devices, media players, most every network router or switch, most servers, and most supercomputers. The Android UI started out optimized for phones. It took them two years to optimize it for tablets... even though companies started selling Android tablets a year before that. Now they're selling Android desktops. There is absolutely no reason Android can't move to the desktop.. but it will take Google's interest in doing that to make it any good.

And that's kind of inevitable. Last year, not quite 3x as many Android copies as Windows made it into some kind of personal computer. Next year, it'll be over 4x. That means that, pretty much already, there are mobile Android users who see their device as their primary computing platform, and either don't use Windows (or other desktop OSs) regularly, don't use them at all, or at least not for their personal computing. These people will get much more out of an Android desktop than a Windows desktop. And there will be more of those people every year.. that's just what the numbers tell us.

These numbers also suggest that if Apple could bridge MacOS and iOS in some way, making it more of a situational thing than an OS thing, the desktop-vs-mobile question, they could be just as powerful as Microsoft, at least numbers-wise. And if they respect the desktop model, rather than ignoring it as Microsoft did, they'll get desktop converts, not simply "iPhone coattails" buyers of the desktop systems. MacOS and iOS are, of course, both built on "DarwinOS", which is just the BSD UNIX bit mixed up with CMU's Mach kernel (plus decades of Apple tweaks) and NeXTStep. This may not be on supercomputers, but it's just as much a desktop-level OS as Windows.

While I don't know about iOS, Android actually supports desktop things now. The presentation is based on your Home Shell (GUI Shell), so it's already possible to run multiple applications at once (the thing end-users think of as multitasking), panelized, on any Android device. The apps themselves not only support resizing, but any application that doesn't internally support resizing has that managed by Android. So it's not hard to image a future desktop Home Shell for Android that supports multiple apps in overlapping windows.. every application already could support that.

Also consider that today's mobile devices are more powerful than PCs from ten years ago. You have quad-core processors at 2.5GHz, 3GB RAM, 128GB storage (with expansion), 802.11n networking, etc. The mobile device form factor is entirely optimized for mobile, of course.. that makes sense. The whole idea of a touch interface is a compromise for mobility... it's good when you have a pocket computer, but it's a terribly stupid idea for the desktop, which permits much more accurate and fast things like mice and Wacoms. No one should be suggesting that today's 10" tablets are going to replace a hex-core i7 desktop with 64GB RAM, many TBs of storage, and multiple qHD monitors (eg, something like what I'm tying this on). But the level of performance in a tablet of today, repackaged for the desktop, is plenty of performance for most PC users.
 

Offline Kesa

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Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #113 on: February 06, 2014, 01:24:48 AM »
I would have felt better if you used Ubuntu* as a substitute for Windows instead of Android :/

*By Ubuntu i am referring to their eventful transition to smartphones  ;)
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Offline matthey

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #114 on: February 06, 2014, 03:09:23 AM »
Quote from: hazydave;758493
Of course they're proper operating systems. People who want to defend Windows like to say this, because that makes them feel better... I guess. After all, it's Microsoft themselves that kind of begged the question, with Windows 8. They thrust this WinRT/Metro tablet OS in every desktop user's face, and said "this is the future". They even started calling that subsystem "Modern" and the old, desktop-class Windows "classic" or "legacy".

Microsoft messes up every other version of Windows and then the next version is a fix. They have spent a lot of money shoving the Windows 8 disaster down people's throats. The software business is under attack from free office applications, Google and the move to mobile. Microsoft has messed up the XBox also with being "arrogant controlling jerks" and is losing market share to Sony with this round of consoles. The Nokia buy of last resorts to break into the mobile market has already seen sales fall and is looking more and more like another disaster.

Apple could give away or nearly give away their Mac OS X and probably put Windows out of business on the x86_64. Apple already announced a free upgrade for OS X which is a savvy move. I don't know how much the Justice Department would put up with a price war and Apple may be content with the higher margin sales for OS X. Apple has missed the boat by being too closed and their Apple TV should have been better with games to take some market from consoles (it may have required staying with x86_64 instead of ARM). Apple does understand the importance of economies of scale and vertical integration where they have stealthily become one of the most advanced processor manufacturers. They have bet on ARM so the question is how far can ARM go in performance? There is a big gap between the power efficiency of ARM and the performance of x86_64. The A7 going 64 bit is a bit of a compromise for this problem as it's not beneficial for a phone (even if they say it's up to twice as fast) but they can use it in other devices like iPads and laptops where it may be an advantage. The new AARCH64/ARM64/ARMv8 ISA has advantages but going 64 bit can waste a lot of cache as this is now another 32 bit fixed length RISC encoding with a little better code density than 64 bit PowerPC but not as good as x86_64. It needs 50% more caches than a 32 bit processor designed for maximum code density (and better than Thumb 2). Remember how small the 68k Amiga executables were and how much memory the AmigaOS used? Now think 5%-15% code density improvement for ISA and ABI changes and another 10%-20% for better code optimization. Now throw in 1-2 GB of memory for modern hungrier applications. Do you think such a modern enhanced processor with an efficient OS like AmigaOS could compete with the 64 bit mobile devices that went "big"?

Quote from: hazydave;758493
Truth is, all of Windows is getting their ass kicked by Android. Yes, that's in units, not money. But the real strength of an OS is only one thing: the applications. We Amiga users ought to grok that... doesn't matter if your OS is better, only what you can actually do with it on a practical basis. When you look at those numbers, it's easy to imagine that the mainstream of software support will move away from Windows.

I think a lot of the reason why the applications are doing so well is that Android is so open. Android is less efficient and optimized than iOS. How fast can executing byte code in Linux on a portable device be? Perhaps a more efficient but also open OS could come in and displace Android?

Quote from: hazydave;758493
These numbers also suggest that if Apple could bridge MacOS and iOS in some way, making it more of a situational thing than an OS thing, the desktop-vs-mobile question, they could be just as powerful as Microsoft, at least numbers-wise. And if they respect the desktop model, rather than ignoring it as Microsoft did, they'll get desktop converts, not simply "iPhone coattails" buyers of the desktop systems. MacOS and iOS are, of course, both built on "DarwinOS", which is just the BSD UNIX bit mixed up with CMU's Mach kernel (plus decades of Apple tweaks) and NeXTStep. This may not be on supercomputers, but it's just as much a desktop-level OS as Windows.

I think Apple has partially bridged the gap between Mac OS X/MacBooks and iOS/iPhone/iPad. They have transfer/synchronization programs and there are several "familiarities" between them. I wonder if they are trying to strengthen ARM to eventually replace the desktops and MacBooks with many core 64 bit ARM processors. They may be able to move to one consolidated more flexible common OS with different user interfaces for different purposes in the future also. I don't know if battery technology can keep up to feed the mobile devices to desktop like performance which they seem to be gambling on with ARM64. Also, when is there enough power to satisfy the phone crowd? I would think apps would become more important after speed and responsiveness become adequate. I think this could be achieved with 32 bit at some savings.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2014, 05:18:39 PM by matthey »
 

Offline persia

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #115 on: February 07, 2014, 12:03:36 AM »
Linux folks are awaiting Ubuntu tablet version, but I doubt it can knock Android and iOS off the top.  Firefox OS seems as moribund as their browser.  Blackberry OS doesn't seem to be very popular any more.
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Offline matthey

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #116 on: February 07, 2014, 01:31:01 AM »
Quote from: persia;758564
Linux folks are awaiting Ubuntu tablet version, but I doubt it can knock Android and iOS off the top.

Ubuntu is nice on a desktop but it's a big version of Linux with lots of eye candy. I agree, it's probably not going to be a game changer for mobile.

Quote from: persia;758564
Firefox OS seems as moribund as their browser.

I like the Firefox browser but the versions in the last few years have been slower and buggy.

Quote from: persia;758564
Blackberry OS doesn't seem to be very popular any more.

Blackberry had the right idea with picking up QNX in 2010. The Blackberry 10 OS is a good and efficient base to build on and a big upgrade from their previous Java based Blackberry OS (although some of the features haven't been brought over yet). The big question is whether Blackberry can get some financing and make appealing phones again. The high end smartphone market seems to be down. The cheap Korean and Chinese phones with Android and lots of software are difficult to compete with too. It will be interesting to see how cheap Apple will go in trying to compete or whether they will stay with the more profitable mid to high end phones. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak just came out and said Apple should make an Android phone in addition to iOS phones. The Woz coming out and saying that is kind of like Hazy Dave saying Amiga users should be content with UAE on Windows. Well, o.k., Microsoft is more evil than cheap Chinese Android phones ;).
 

Offline commodorejohn

Re: Windows worldwide market share is stuck at 15% and falling
« Reply #117 on: February 07, 2014, 03:13:48 AM »
Quote from: matthey;758570
I like the Firefox browser but the versions in the last few years have been slower and buggy.
Firefox has been getting progressively worse since they started the version-of-the-month club...wish they'd go back to actually taking the time to get something ready for release before releasing it...
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