Wouldn't expect them to do anything but promote from within, or bring someone back that was already a long term Microsoftie. Sinfosky doesn't stand a chance in hell, IMO. A lot of W8's failures rest on his shoulders still, and he was very well known for being just miserable to work with and often compared to a Jobs wannabe sans the "vision".
Hastings (from Netflix, and a MS board member) was a pretty good bet but I doubt he'd take the job if offered. Not to mention he's still sort of living down the blunder he did with Netflix not too long ago. He's still patching that mess up, but past the worst of it.
Elop is a dice roll. While he's done good work at Nokia, I don't picture him as a guiding force for MS in the long haul even if Nokia and MS are on extremely friendly terms. Larson-Green could be another dice roll, but it's been muttered she doesn't have the vision or depth to run the show on a bigger scheme of things.
Whoever it is, I suspect they will be hand picked by Billy G. himself, heh.
If they do hire outside of the walled garden, wouldn't be surprised if they poached an ex Googler or ex Apple exec.
